Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jhm]

I love that Tesla aspires to make manufacturing one of their core strengths. I think it's becoming abundantly clear that the advancement of EVs about much more than just the declining cost and improving performance of batteries. Battery tech is critically important, but so to is discovering every little and big way to produce the whole vehicle with utmost efficiency. While ICE makers may have gone a long ways optimizes every detail of ICEV manufacturing, EVs optimize around around a quite different architecture. Traditional auto makers really do not have much experience optimizing the design and manufacture of EVs. Even if Tesla were to hand their own battery cells to other auto makers, they would no know how to make best use of it. So it's not just the battery tech. It's not something that some auto parts supplier can provide to an auto maker. It's the whole damn EV that must be optimized.

 

[Big Time]

Wow. First refreshed S will more than "pad" the numbers on Q3 ER, and now X release this early in Q4. Amazing.
If we get a delivery party out of Berlin or Austin in Q4(Elon speculated December or even NOV for Berlin.... numbers are going to be GREAT.

What kind of impact will this have on Q4 numbers? 15,000 per quarter for S/X pretty much capped or do we have a new "demand problem"?

 

[2daMoon]

I love that Tesla aspires to make manufacturing one of their core strengths. I think it's becoming abundantly clear that the advancement of EVs about much more than just the declining cost and improving performance of batteries. Battery tech is critically important, but so to is discovering every little and big way to produce the whole vehicle with utmost efficiency. While ICE makers may have gone a long ways optimizes every detail of ICEV manufacturing, EVs optimize around around a quite different architecture. Traditional auto makers really do not have much experience optimizing the design and manufacture of EVs. Even if Tesla were to hand their own battery cells to other auto makers, they would no know how to make best use of it. So it's not just the battery tech. It's not something that some auto parts supplier can provide to an auto maker. It's the whole damn EV that must be optimized.

Imagine the confusion an industry built upon planned obsolescence and supporting a parasitical service-based dealership cartel preying upon the buyers, which is further hog-tied by a corrupt union-aligned workforce, suddenly being thrust into a world turned upside down by first-principles, value-oriented, lean and agile focused manufacturing.

Tesla has deployed a Jetsons-esque Holy Hand Grenade upon, essentially, caveman concepts for automobile design and production.

For decades the consumers and the government has pushed, prodded, and made every attempt to get them to develop next-level tech and they didn't respond, choosing instead to keep kicking the can down the road. They have earned whatever befalls them, solely due to their inability to take a hint.

 

[Big Time]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1448814097131212841

 

[Singuy]

Video like this do wonders for Tesla's image. Quality issues? Well the Plaid can be fully submerged in water and come out alive. Can't get customer service to help? This guy got a representative on the phone quickly. Overall it's a fun video but yeah fully support Cybertruck boat mode.

 

[jw934]

Hate to disagree, but you used the prices from 2021.... not 2020

Glad you caught this. Thanks for pointing it out.

 

[GrandEnigma]

Welp, this sucks. And to add insult to injury there is such a no demand problem (and probably supply chain issues) that I cannot get another of my spec until July.

Thankfully we are all safe.

All of this too after a very enjoyable and uneventful 1,800 mile road trip earlier this week. Got rear-ended waiting to make a turn and shoved into the car a few yards in front of me by some huge pickup as I was coming home from a soccer game this morning.

Back to only owning TSLA for now.

 

[SPadival]

Holon Global Investments, or the Cathie Wood of Australia, has a PT of 3300 on Tesla after doing research for the past12 months.

TLDR

1. High operating margins, going to 25%
2. Makes a car 3 times faster than competitor
3. Top automakers have high debt and low FCF generation
4. Automakers(like VW) has over 600k workers and 125 factories making over 100 different models, too complex to compete with Tesla

Link to the report. I haven’t read it yet.
You need to subscribe (provide an email) to download the report

Insights | Holon

 

[FireMedic]

Welp, this sucks. And to add insult to injury there is such a no demand problem (and probably supply chain issues) that I cannot get another of my spec until July.

Thankfully we are all safe.

All of this too after a very enjoyable and uneventful 1,800 mile road trip earlier this week. Got rear-ended waiting to make a turn and shoved into the car a few yards in front of me by some huge pickup as I was coming home from a soccer game this morning.

Back to only owning TSLA for now.

Indeed, the most important part is that you are all safe.

But, it is tough going back to driving anything else… Last time I had a loaner it was a Tesla; hopefully you have the same fortune.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Tesla Economist came in at $2.09.
According to Gary Black, Wall Street is now at $1.63 (previously $1.56)

View attachment 722336

@The Accountant,
Marketwatch shows $1.51 average analysts estimate TSLA | Tesla Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Yahoo Finance shows $1.50 average analysts estimate Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance

 

[Boomer19]

Welp, this sucks. And to add insult to injury there is such a no demand problem (and probably supply chain issues) that I cannot get another of my spec until July.

Thankfully we are all safe.

All of this too after a very enjoyable and uneventful 1,800 mile road trip earlier this week. Got rear-ended waiting to make a turn and shoved into the car a few yards in front of me by some huge pickup as I was coming home from a soccer game this morning.

Back to only owning TSLA for now.

glad everyone is ok

 

[The Accountant]

@The Accountant,
Marketwatch shows $1.51 average analyst estimates TSLA | Tesla Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Yahoo Finance shows $1.50 average analyst estimate Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance

Thanks. Those match up closely with the FactSet number of $1.49 that @thx1139 provided.
I am assuming that Gary Black is getting his $1.63 from the Bloomberg Terminal but I have not been able to confirm this.

 

[dww12]

I like how by definition a performance EV swap is a now Tesla swap (like a LS swap for ICE), and that ICE garage channels are getting into custom EVs. Somebody make a nice Tesla Jeep TJ kit please!

 

[qphan79]

Except for rap. IMO. RIP rap.

There’s more poetry, ideas, and emotions in a minute of some rap songs than in whole albums of other music. But sure, RIP rap…

 

[dww12]

Any opinions on what Tesla will do with totaled cars? Do they just sell them at auction or find a way to take advantage of all their own damaged vehicles? Centralize repair/recertification facility?

 

[bkp_duke]

Any opinions on what Tesla will do with totaled cars? Do they just sell them at auction or find a way to take advantage of all their own damaged vehicles? Centralize repair/recertification facility?

There is an entire industry devoted to this. The car will be sold by the insurance company at auction, even if just for parts.

The battery pack looks like it should be fully intact, and a disassembler (likely purchaser of the auction) will pull it and sell it, along with any other parts that can be pulled. The frame will be sold for scrap/recycling.

In this case, that pack will get a new lease on life somewhere, as they are in high demand.


Not usable for Model 3/Y packs, but S/X packs are in super high demand by EV conversion companies. They will take the pack apart and use the modules inside their custom conversions (because the packs themselves won't fit). The BMS on the pack will be replaced by their own custom version, etc. etc.

Have no fear, there will be practically zero waste.

 

[Nolimits]

Welp, this sucks. And to add insult to injury there is such a no demand problem (and probably supply chain issues) that I cannot get another of my spec until July.

Thankfully we are all safe.

All of this too after a very enjoyable and uneventful 1,800 mile road trip earlier this week. Got rear-ended waiting to make a turn and shoved into the car a few yards in front of me by some huge pickup as I was coming home from a soccer game this morning.

Back to only owning TSLA for now.

Glad you are ok!! Hang in there. You will be back in a tesla in no time.

 

[GOVA]

I've read somewhere, which I can't find now, that FredElecTrek is indirectly owned by VolksWagen.

So, one of their latest pieces was "Volkswagen Group BEV delivery numbers still a year behind Tesla, but gaining fast at 138% YOY", which as you can see shows VW in very good light.

Weekend neighbours discussion - One of them said " I don't know how we are gonna propell all of those EVs because most of nuclear power plants are getting very old and there are no plans to replenish (rebuilt) those. It will be a lot of burnt coal and pollution due to increase in EVs and inability to use nuclear power plants."

I left this w/out any comments (for now). I am not sure if I ever dignify this with an answer. We still have a LONG way to go.

 

[MP3Mike]

Any opinions on what Tesla will do with totaled cars? Do they just sell them at auction or find a way to take advantage of all their own damaged vehicles? Centralize repair/recertification facility?

Well most totaled Tesla don't belong to Tesla. They belong to the owner until the insurance company pays for it at which point the insurance company owns it. The insurance company will normally sell it back to the owner at a very reasonable "scrap" price, otherwise it goes to auction.

Though rumor has it that on at least the vehicles with the 100kWh packs Tesla makes note of the airbag deployment and will contact the owner and negotiate to pay them to buy the vehicle from the insurance company for Tesla. (This involves an NDA and often a better payment/priority if the owner purchases another Tesla.) Tesla then strips it for whatever parts they want, battery pack/drive units, etc. and scraps the rest.

 

[Surfer of Life]

Video like this do wonders for Tesla's image. Quality issues? Well the Plaid can be fully submerged in water and come out alive. Can't get customer service to help? This guy got a representative on the phone quickly. Overall it's a fun video but yeah fully support Cybertruck boat mode.

Nice video! Last I called Tesla from my cell, their system likewise ignored all my voice and text inputs (he said "1" and entered it repeatedly to no avail). Has Tesla fixed that? I never got a rep.