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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Temecula California this morning. Just a moment of reflection…
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Speculation. Based on how things look. Pattern recognition. Maybe wrong.

Elon cares about safety.
Elon does not think large format aluminum pouch batteries are safe.
GM may be going in an "unsafe" direction to serve their niche markets.

VW can serve those niche markets safely with 4680 batteries consistent with the mission.
VW has a nice factory in Chattanooga and experience manufacturing product in Pennsylvania.
VW is like a talented recruit with a history of domestic abuse.
Elon is giving VW a second chance [as GM is un-coachable].

Elon is recruiting over General Motors for the sake of the mission.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Speculation. Based on how things look. Pattern recognition. Maybe wrong.

Elon cares about safety.
Elon does not think large format aluminum pouch batteries are safe.
GM may be going in an "unsafe" direction to serve their niche markets.

VW can serve those niche markets safely with 4680 batteries consistent with the mission.
VW has a nice factory in Chattanooga and experience manufacturing product in Pennsylvania.
VW is like a talented recruit with a history of domestic abuse.
Elon is giving VW a second chance [as GM is un-coachable].

Elon is recruiting over General Motors for the sake of the mission.
FTFY. Can’t imagine this at all. Nor do I see it this way. I think VW is just stuck in a rut and needs help getting out. Immense engineering talent and business acumen, stuck on the cultural, management shift required. The perfect type of firm that Elon would want to help.
 
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FTFY. Can’t imagine this at all. Nor do I see it this way. I think VW is just stuck in a rut and needs help getting out. Immense engineering talent and business acumen, stuck on the cultural, management shift required. The perfect type of firm that Elon would want to help.

People trust the BBC, so I chose this one (with no graphic videos).
 
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Electrek is making unsupported accusations against Elon.


The article says:

'The focus of the conference was to get VW executives on-board with the massive changes VW will need to make to confront the changing auto industry. Diess recognized that VW “did many right things in the past, in the old world Volkswagen is strong, but there is no guarantee for the new world.” He wants VW to make “faster decisions, less bureaucracy, more responsibility”.

As examples of this, Meyer spoke about Netflix’s transformation from DVD to streaming to content production, and Diess spoke with Musk about the reasons Tesla is more nimble than its rivals. Musk reportedly answered: “It’s the management style. I’m primarily an engineer and, besides the car, I’m fascinated by supply chains, logistics and production processes.”

Diess gave the example that Tesla was better able to handle the current global chip shortage than the rest of the auto industry because their software teams rewrote Tesla’s software in just 2-3 weeks, allowing use of different chips.'

Then, in 'Electrek's Take' the author says:

'While we did not hear a recording of the conference and thus don’t know Musk’s full comments, we would not put the whole reason for Tesla’s success solely down to Musk’s “management style” (ego much, Elon?). While a strong CEO who refuses to compromise on innovation certainly can contribute to a company’s ability to move quickly, Tesla benefits from many other factors independent of its CEO.'

I wrote in the comments section:

'In your 'Electrek's Take' you say that Musk 'egotistically' claimed to be the sole reason for Tesla's success, yet you provided no evidence this happened other than Musk pointing out that his Engineering First management style helps Tesla be more nimble. Do you have additional commentary by Elon that supports this? It's a serious accusation you're making.'

Over the next 10 minutes I refreshed the page a few times to check for a response. No response, and my comment disappeared.
 

People trust the BBC, so I chose this one (with no graphic videos).
I see your point. When one reads “domestic abuse,” it generally connotes something else. As much as I dislike trying to compare shades of awful, I will just say, it’s better to put this as you have with the facts - namely despicable corporate behavior, which of course are decisions of individuals, and with both being held accountable. In my experience (Am not an expert), I would say it is more likely that a corporation would change, than an individual having the label you used. This is headed OT, and into areas like philosophy, human behavior, psychology and such. I could be wrong, but from what I’ve read, Elon would be more likely to judge the individual more harshly than the corporation.
 
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Electrek is making unsupported accusations against Elon.


The article says:

'The focus of the conference was to get VW executives on-board with the massive changes VW will need to make to confront the changing auto industry. Diess recognized that VW “did many right things in the past, in the old world Volkswagen is strong, but there is no guarantee for the new world.” He wants VW to make “faster decisions, less bureaucracy, more responsibility”.

As examples of this, Meyer spoke about Netflix’s transformation from DVD to streaming to content production, and Diess spoke with Musk about the reasons Tesla is more nimble than its rivals. Musk reportedly answered: “It’s the management style. I’m primarily an engineer and, besides the car, I’m fascinated by supply chains, logistics and production processes.”

Diess gave the example that Tesla was better able to handle the current global chip shortage than the rest of the auto industry because their software teams rewrote Tesla’s software in just 2-3 weeks, allowing use of different chips.'

Then, in 'Electrek's Take' the author says:

'While we did not hear a recording of the conference and thus don’t know Musk’s full comments, we would not put the whole reason for Tesla’s success solely down to Musk’s “management style” (ego much, Elon?). While a strong CEO who refuses to compromise on innovation certainly can contribute to a company’s ability to move quickly, Tesla benefits from many other factors independent of its CEO.'

I wrote in the comments section:

'In your 'Electrek's Take' you say that Musk 'egotistically' claimed to be the sole reason for Tesla's success, yet you provided no evidence this happened other than Musk pointing out that his Engineering First management style helps Tesla be more nimble. Do you have additional commentary by Elon that supports this? It's a serious accusation you're making.'

Over the next 10 minutes I refreshed the page a few times to check for a response. No response, and my comment disappeared.
This, folks, is why we get angry if someone posts an electrek link without letting readers know it's from electrek. Fred is dirty and cannot be trusted. Deleting comments you don't like and/or don't agree with IMO is not in accordance with journalistic integrity.
 
Electrek is making unsupported accusations against Elon.


The article says:

'The focus of the conference was to get VW executives on-board with the massive changes VW will need to make to confront the changing auto industry. Diess recognized that VW “did many right things in the past, in the old world Volkswagen is strong, but there is no guarantee for the new world.” He wants VW to make “faster decisions, less bureaucracy, more responsibility”.

As examples of this, Meyer spoke about Netflix’s transformation from DVD to streaming to content production, and Diess spoke with Musk about the reasons Tesla is more nimble than its rivals. Musk reportedly answered: “It’s the management style. I’m primarily an engineer and, besides the car, I’m fascinated by supply chains, logistics and production processes.”

Diess gave the example that Tesla was better able to handle the current global chip shortage than the rest of the auto industry because their software teams rewrote Tesla’s software in just 2-3 weeks, allowing use of different chips.'

Then, in 'Electrek's Take' the author says:

'While we did not hear a recording of the conference and thus don’t know Musk’s full comments, we would not put the whole reason for Tesla’s success solely down to Musk’s “management style” (ego much, Elon?). While a strong CEO who refuses to compromise on innovation certainly can contribute to a company’s ability to move quickly, Tesla benefits from many other factors independent of its CEO.'

I wrote in the comments section:

'In your 'Electrek's Take' you say that Musk 'egotistically' claimed to be the sole reason for Tesla's success, yet you provided no evidence this happened other than Musk pointing out that his Engineering First management style helps Tesla be more nimble. Do you have additional commentary by Elon that supports this? It's a serious accusation you're making.'

Over the next 10 minutes I refreshed the page a few times to check for a response. No response, and my comment disappeared.
I read the article on Reuters. That’s not what the article said or implied. I didn’t read Electrek; I don’t read Fred anymore. The only ego that is too big here is Fred’s.
 
Holon Global Investments, or the Cathie Wood of Australia, has a PT of 3300 on Tesla after doing research for the past12 months.

TLDR

1. High operating margins, going to 25%
2. Makes a car 3 times faster than competitor
3. Top automakers have high debt and low FCF generation
4. Automakers(like VW) has over 600k workers and 125 factories making over 100 different models, too complex to compete with Tesla

 
US Premium Priced Automarket through August 2021

  • BMW - 236,247 (up 43%)
  • Lexus - 222,956 (up 39%)
  • Mercedes-Benz - 198,703 (up 19%)
  • Tesla - 194,165 (up 79%)
  • Audi - 159,443 (up 45%)
According to the car registration data from Experian (via Automotive News), some 294,218 electric vehicles have been registered from January to August 2021 (including almost 39,000 in August). That's about 2.7% of the total market and 114% more than a year ago.

The data indicates that Tesla maintains its dominant position with 194,165 units (up 79% year-over-year) and 66% share. That leaves 100,053 for all of the other brands combined, but the overall market is expanding faster.

 
US Premium Priced Automarket through August 2021

  • BMW - 236,247 (up 43%)
  • Lexus - 222,956 (up 39%)
  • Mercedes-Benz - 198,703 (up 19%)
  • Tesla - 194,165 (up 79%)
  • Audi - 159,443 (up 45%)
According to the car registration data from Experian (via Automotive News), some 294,218 electric vehicles have been registered from January to August 2021 (including almost 39,000 in August). That's about 2.7% of the total market and 114% more than a year ago.

The data indicates that Tesla maintains its dominant position with 194,165 units (up 79% year-over-year) and 66% share. That leaves 100,053 for all of the other brands combined, but the overall market is expanding faster.

Remember tesla had a breakout year last year, not so much the others