ZachF
Active Member
China is still holding on to their untenable zero COVID strategy even with Omicron having near measles levels of contagiousness and ~10x lower death rate.
The entire city of Xi’an is currently locked down.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
China is still holding on to their untenable zero COVID strategy even with Omicron having near measles levels of contagiousness and ~10x lower death rate.
The entire city of Xi’an is currently locked down.
Well, the article could have been worse! But yeah, the “EV market share” thing is really, really annoying. Tesla is obviously taking market share away from ICE manufacturers, so the only market share number that matters is their overall passenger vehicle market share, and that keeps growing, of course.
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Haha yeah that's my thinking too. I've got $6k ready to shove into my Roth first thing tomorrow morning and who knows how high the SP will be by that time. Oh well, whatever the SP is at opening bell tomorrow is what $6k will buy me.Of course they go and release this news the day before 2022 ROTH contributions
And yet production and sales went along just fine and accelerated in December.
Dec production will come in at 65k. Jan will likely decline to 55k because of Chinese New Year before rebounding to 65k in Feb and then 70k in March. 350k for Q1 is a relatively conservative number because only 10k out of Austin/Berlin each are needed to clear the 350k with buffer
LiveLong&Profit
Member
Hm...
Perhaps they are doing cold water testing in Norway?
Come to think of it ... many parts of Europe is cold currently - perhaps a couple of thousand vehicles to do a proper test?
Joking aside, is Elon really trying to pre-empt or second-guess the starting gun? That is gutsy - and risky.
Not sure how that would go down in Deutschland.
Prob not all to well.
Krugerrand
Meow
His brain exploded, mark my words.I can just picture @The Accountant at his computer right now.
Can’t wait for your number crunching results!
James Stephenson has a great chart going through historical production. 2021 was one of the best years of growth even by historical standards.
LiveLong&Profit
Member
This might be OT but I am trying to understand Teslas advantage here.
I don't get it ... what stops the traditional auto companies from doing a monthly or quarterly price adjustment re. the cars they sell to the dealers? Is such a thing prescribed by US law?
I recall the many problems Tesla had in the early years due to not having dealers. Not so much anymore though.
Looking at these production and delivery numbers there is only one thing on my mind.
It's not the profit.
It's how utterly amazing it is that Elon has been able to inspire this many people inside Tesla to produce results like this.
It's not the profit.
It's how utterly amazing it is that Elon has been able to inspire this many people inside Tesla to produce results like this.
They removed a profit incentive from the chain.
The Dealer network wants profit...the salesman wants to sell you trinkets for your car.
The whole thing is rigged to fleece the buyer.
Tesla want to treat everyone the same. Zero dudes in bad suits following you with a clipboard saying your first name every 10 seconds to build a "relationship" with you.
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Dealers can sell cars for any price they wish- they're under no obligation to respect the MSRP, and they aren't owned by the car maker.
So they can do crap like add a big markup to EVs because they'd rather sell you an ICE you'll keep bringing back for profitable service, regardless of it the MFG would like to ramp up their EV transition or not.
Tesla in contrast is selling cars directly to customers (well, except in the handful of states that's not legally allowed still...like Texas- where you technically "buy" it out of state then they can ship your already bought car into that state), without a worthless middle-man adding cost but no value, and insuring anybody ordering the same moment as anyone else sees the same MFG pricing.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Thing is - Tesla has been production constrained (not demand constrained) since 2012. Nothing has changed and financial analysts just don't grok production constraint for a manufacturing company for anything than a short time period (a quarter - maybe 2?). A decade is mind blowing.
It'd make Tesla into a case study for MBA students except that its not a useful case study - nobody has ever had the problem for a decade so what's the point of studying the problem?
To be clear - demand constraint (roughly everybody) is where you're looking for more buyers, and right size the manufacturing process to satisfy that demand. A business might spend money on advertising in this condition to increase demand in order to support building more stuff to sell.
Production constraint means that everything you're building is sold (or effectively so) and that buyers are queuing up in longer and longer lines to buy. The problem isn't finding more buyers - its building stuff fast enough that the buyers don't go looking for somebody else to build them what they need.
LiveLong&Profit
Member
Norway is an EEA country so (with some exceptions) they agree to abide by all EU laws and regulations.
And in Norway, like Germany, cars drive in the right side of the street so no steering wheel adjustment are needed.
So no (or very few) differences should apply. Not sure about the color of the turn-signals.
Norway is very cold though, but AFAIK all new Teslas has the option for cold-weather package.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I don't believe that Tesla has ever been constrained by the lack of traditional dealerships in the US. At least not since I started following the company closely in 2012.
So true! Tesla did an amazing job considering supply constraints, no US incentives and all word of mouth advertising.
The do it all the time, but because it's filtered by dealerships, you never hear about it.
Tesla lies. They said 50% growth YoY going forward. Buncha liars! 
In all seriousness though, they are now at 1.2M annual run rate. Shanghai has target production of 1M units (don’t know by when). Fremont runs at 600K? Then add in Berlin and Austin, which could each make 150K conservatively this year. So, I mean we are looking at a low end estimate of 1.5M units, but could be upwards of 2M assuming no supply chain issues.
In all seriousness though, they are now at 1.2M annual run rate. Shanghai has target production of 1M units (don’t know by when). Fremont runs at 600K? Then add in Berlin and Austin, which could each make 150K conservatively this year. So, I mean we are looking at a low end estimate of 1.5M units, but could be upwards of 2M assuming no supply chain issues.
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