Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wooter]

What happening with TSLA ???

Business as usual:

Big call walls at 1200, 1250, 1300.

 

[jhm]

AP - this afternoon: $29,000 for an average used car? Would-be buyers are aghast

Excerpt:

...As prices for used vehicles blow past any seemingly rational level, it is the kind of scenario playing out at many auto dealerships across the country. Prices have soared so high, so fast, that buyers are being increasingly priced out of the market.

Consider that the average price of a used vehicle in the United States in November, according to Edmunds.com, was $29,011 — a dizzying 39% more than just 12 months earlier. And for the first time that anyone can recall, more than half of America’s households have less income than is considered necessary to buy the average-priced used vehicle...

Birth pangs of the coming BEV Age.

Compared to $29k for an average used ICE car, $45k for a new Model 3 is not a huge reach. If Tesla China were to start cranking out a new smaller model near a $29k price, they'd sell very well most anywhere in the world.

Note, if the average used price is high in the US, this also would imply that the average export price for used cars is also very high, pricing many eager consumers in developing countries out of the market for any vehicle.

While all this is good news for BEV makers, I do worry that we could see a recovery of ICE production. This could distract traditional automakers from transitioning to EVs and increase the total number of ICE vehicles to be replaced with BEVs over the next 20 years. In terms of climate response, we need ICE production to decline substantially every year. In the face of enormous pent up demand, BEV production needs to ramp up even faster.

 

[Boomer19]

What happening with TSLA ???

id guess short-term profit taking after blowout P&D

 

[UkNorthampton]

As expected, take profits day is happening.

Wow, EV's got a pretty big slice of that pie now.

and diesel has collapsed

 

[Discoducky]

id guess short-term profit taking after blowout P&D

I'd guess call wall defending of $1200, but it ain't gonna make a bit of difference if we have a Giga Texas announcement from Tesla prior to close Friday.

 

[thesmokingman]

A little pull back is healthy.

 

[BornToFly]

Is the NASDAQ bringing TSLA down, or is TSLA bringing the NASDAQ down....

 

[Drezil]

Is the NASDAQ bringing TSLA down, or is TSLA bringing the NASDAQ down....

The NASDAQ brings TSLA down. Because we "only" have the usual 4x down and not something crazy like 10x

 

[jbcarioca]

Have you considered Norway? The schools are free, and the herring is excellent. So's the Tesla.

You forgot the cod, in my house we call it bacalhao and it is delectable in any of the myriad versions. Perhaps Norway's second most famous export, facilitating many Tesla purchases.

 

[Boomer19]

I'd guess call wall defending of $1200, but it ain't gonna make a bit of difference if we have a Giga Texas announcement from Tesla prior to close Friday.

I don't want to be a pessimist, but id guess official factory openings are likely baked in already (def Austin more than Brandenburg) - then again, the market hasn't shown much understanding at all

to me the big reminders to the nitwits on wall st are:
- yes, Tesla will post great margins again, you nitwits
- Elon talking about product roadmap
- way less impactful than the above two (at this time) will be the first qtr ever that TE does 1b in revenue (this won't matter until megapack factory max efficiency, and margins grow a bit in that segment - I know I know, batteries...(but I personally can't wait for a 1b revenue print in generation and storage)

 

[Discoducky]

Is the NASDAQ bringing TSLA down, or is TSLA bringing the NASDAQ down....

It does seem like @F announcing their, lets say 'proposed' 150k/yr production target (if they deliver 10k that will be amazing and I'll be the first to congratulate them) of the Lightning is pushing many EVs down today...at least the ones I follow like $FUV, $NIO, $LCID. But not $RIVN magically...

 

[CorneliusXX]

Is this precipitous drop

View attachment 751780

due to Ford announcing they are going to double the doubling of the electric F150 ?

View attachment 751782

See Ford says it will double production of electric F-150 Lightning to 150,000 trucks per year

EDIT: My Crystal ball says green by lunch time.

Good to see Ford is at least spending walking around money on the transition. They might have earned a couple of extra minutes on the doomsday clock if they can follow through.

 

[Bouboule]

Is this precipitous drop

View attachment 751780

due to Ford announcing they are going to double the doubling of the electric F150 ?

View attachment 751782

See Ford says it will double production of electric F-150 Lightning to 150,000 trucks per year

EDIT: My Crystal ball says green by lunch time.

Regardless how you see it, quadrupling your production numbers in just one month is NOT a good sign for Ford. It either shows that you had no vision one month ago, or that you just used the magic of Excel but that you have no clue on how to actually deliver.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Bears like to compare Tesla to car companies. Wallstreet only cares about profits no matter what kind of company it is. Does Tesla deserves to be part of the trillion dollar club? Lets compare Tesla balance sheet in estimated Q4 to Amazon's when they first hit 1 trillion dollars due to Q4 2019 earnings.

Amazon yoy revenue growth: 21%
Amazon's operating margin: 5.18%
Amazon's operating income: 3.88B

Tesla's yoy revenue growth: ~80%
Tesla's operating margin: estimated ~18%
Tesla's operating income : estimated~ 3.1 B

Yes, amazon made more revenue than Tesla, but their operating margin is trash while guiding revenue growth to be 20-30% going forward(of course their revenue grew more than that due to black swan pandemic). Now that it's post pandemic, we see Amazon's revenue stalling while operating income dropping like a rock.

Tesla is guiding for 50% revenue growth going forward, and most likely supersede this number again in 2022. This is what bears don't want you to see because the operating income which translate mostly to non-gaap will continue to crush minds going forward and it's unprecedented given the revenue growth rate. Infact Tesla will surpass Amazon's operating income in 1.5 years at the guided 50% revenue growth rate(if operating margins stay the same)...however Zach said operating margins will continue to expand for the next few quarters.

Conclusion: We don't have to throw FSD robo taxi/energy/insurance/not a car company/robotic AI or any of that stuff as arguments to why Tesla is fairly valued(or maybe even under valued if they continue to crush earnings). It's all in the balance sheet.

Did you just get upset that analysts are comparing Tesla to the lowly.......Amazon?

Not sure of what, but surely this is some kind of TMC indicator!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Actually, in my experience, a successful business can very well be a "me too" business. People who do not run businesses often think the business idea is very important, but I would say that is only 5% of success. Execution is the key, not the idea. There are so many lazy and poor competitors out there so by just delivering better than those, you will earn a good reputation and attract business. I would also warn anyone thinking about becoming an entrepreneur to spend too much time on planning, things will never turn out as planned anyway. Think more about the first sale of a product or a service. Before you have sold anything, you do not have a business, in my opinion. Then again, I have never run any Silicon Valley type startup or biotech venture, where the first couple of years seem to be all about raising capital.

Sorry for the off topic advice nobody asked for but entrepreneurship discussions trigger me

You are 100% correct. When I said don’t do a me too business I was thinking of a business that would deliver like $100M+ of wealth. But if your goals are more modest, you are correct that execution is key and you can carve out a niche, and even eventually grow a me too business into something large (but it’ll take a lot longer). Most businesses seemingly are run by idiots studying hard to become morons. I tell my kids, all you have to be is minimally competent and you’ll do well owning or running a business.

 

[JRP3]

Obvious profit taking in the new year, I did mine yesterday.

 

[jbcarioca]

Regardless how you see it, quadrupling your production numbers in just one month is NOT a good sign for Ford. It either shows that you had no vision one month ago, or that you just used the magic of Excel but that you have no clue on how to actually deliver.

Both?

 

[Singuy]

Is this precipitous drop

View attachment 751780

due to Ford announcing they are going to double the doubling of the electric F150 ?

View attachment 751782

See Ford says it will double production of electric F-150 Lightning to 150,000 trucks per year

EDIT: My Crystal ball says green by lunch time.

It has nothing to do with what Ford is saying about EV production. Wall street understand legacy car companies are practically banks that sell debt in the form of cars. Higher interest rates due to 10 year bond rising allows the fed to raise rates this year which means Ford can make more profits off interest.

 

[tivoboy]

Obvious profit taking in the new year, I did mine yesterday.

I did mine in the pre. ;-)

 

[thesmokingman]

That was a helluva dip!