Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Wooloomooloo]

You must be correct. Just a coincidence that they’ve stopped JUST shy of -10% several times today….

No manipulation folks. You heard it here first!

How's your theory holding up?

 

[Dutchie]

It’s uncanny. Every time I make a post this happens. You would think I would learn not to waste my time. Sorry for being part of the problem on this forum. I’ll try my best to stay in the background and just be a reader of the great posts on here. Odds are this post will be deleted too. Oh well

I had a post deleted yesterday too, of which I though that it was a bit overdone. Don’t take it personal, stay active. Everyone makes a slip of the tongue once-in-a-while. The moderators are there to keep everything in on topic and they do a marvellous job on the whole. They are not your oppressors but are a friend of the forum and the messages.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla Q4 Earnings Call: A Tour de Force... | Jordan Giesige a.k.a. "The Limiting Factor" (1 hr ago)

Cheers!

 

[AKAlex]

It’s uncanny. Every time I make a post this happens. You would think I would learn not to waste my time. Sorry for being part of the problem on this forum. I’ll try my best to stay in the background and just be a reader of the great posts on here. Odds are this post will be deleted too. Oh well

I find quite a bit of value from some of the posts about FSD. The discussion here is more robust due to the larger set of participants than in the AV forum (Seems like only the the same 3 or 4 folks hashing it out over there). However, maybe it would be more on topic to tie these posts speculating on it's capability into how it affects the financials of Tesla? For instance, what does a $40k software package look like for margins (Hint: Juicy!).

 

[Cherry Wine]

I had a post deleted yesterday too, of which I though that it was a bit overdone. Don’t take it personal, stay active. Everyone makes a slip of the tongue once-in-a-while. The moderators are there to keep everything in on topic and they do a marvellous job on the whole. They are not your oppressors but are a friend of the forum and the messages.

Yep -- been there too. The moderator messages can sometimes be a bit off-putting, but I try to take it in stride. For one, it's a thankless job that is probably irritating (not akin to telling a toddler to stop doing something for the nth time), so I understand the gruffness.

Secondly, because this thread has already lost some fantastic voices to similar issues in the past, and I would hate to see it - a fantastic resource for TSLA investors if it can be kept going - wither on the vine over hurt feelings. And while it's not like I think I bring anything of great value to this thread, I like to keep contributing and the discussion going, to perhaps help keep those who do bring value and insight to the thread engaged.

This has been and can continue to be a great place to discuss an amazing company and investment opportunity, if we can all check our egos just a bit and work to keep it that way.

 

[aGreenGuy]

The spoofing that you see is going on @viridi - is that something that is rather unique to Tesla, or is it a technique that occurs on a lot of other stocks (or set of stocks) as well?

 

[mrmage]

Post lunch rally? I'm getting a much better understanding of the aversion many here have to margin buying this month. I'm not sure it's worth the stress.

Totally not worth the stress when the SP is on the way down. When the SP is on the way up I feel otherwise.

Personally, I make it a point to keep below 50% margin, so I sold off some shares today that were picked up @500 from expired options in Jan.

Which made me think of another reason for the disproportionate SP drop without comensurate recoveries. Quite a bit might be from retail investors who are selling to meet their liquidity criteria. Not just margin calls, which are forced, but disciplined investors on margin will have their own rules for liquidity, and sell no matter how bullish they are in Tesla.

Even as I sell TSLA shares, I'm still converting shares to options as tranche targets get hit. I have to admit that this SP behavior is a real excrement*show that I did not expect given how well Tesla has been executing. Guess I'm not the only one!

 

[Nocturnal]

Well that's interesting.

 

[Skryll]

Totally not worth the stress when the SP is on the way down. When the SP is on the way up I feel otherwise.

Personally, I make it a point to keep below 50% margin, so I sold off some shares today that were picked up @500 from expired options in Jan.

Which made me think of another reason for the disproportionate SP drop without comensurate recoveries. Quite a bit might be from retail investors who are selling to meet their liquidity criteria. Not just margin calls, which are forced, but disciplined investors on margin will have their own rules for liquidity, and sell no matter how bullish they are in Tesla.

Even as I sell TSLA shares, I'm still converting shares to options as tranche targets get hit. I have to admit that this SP behavior is a real excrement*show that I did not expect given how well Tesla has been executing. Guess I'm not the only one!

Not a surprise to me with lots of disruption happening to the energy and resource space, I assume oil price will rise more, which may give fossil fueled shorts more money to throw away at suppressing Tesla, which all will just mean we get fossil subsidy financed discounts on Tesla shares for another year or so, until the spring propels us back up into the stratosphere, likely above $2k/share. I don't mind. We have seen this before. Just a bit sad that taking money off the table in order to invest into other things like your home is so expensive in the meantime.

 

[Skipdd]

I agree with most of what you wrote but, as an investor who made his way betting on mostly on things I considered a "sure thing", I'm still having trouble wrapping my head around paying a premium for autonomous driving because it's more speculative than I'm accustomed to investing money in. If I can see something NOT happening in a reasonable timeframe, then I'm probably not going to put my money on the line unless the risk/reward is too good to pass up. The problem I have is it's a very difficult initiative to put odds on (even Elon Musk has trouble with this). Fortunately, TSLA has never been valued for their unrealized autonomy business, so I don't have to pay extra for it. That's why I call it the frosting on the cake. Just bought 200 more at $794 and I didn't have to pay a penny extra for the built-in autonomy option!

Thanks for the post. I find it hard to maintain perspective and reading your post as well as others who have deep investment chops is very helpful. I’m still on the fence if/when I will buy more, but seeing how others judge their step in points is useful.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Well that's interesting.
View attachment 772957

OK, so I have a question.
If Elon secures some sort of momentous victory against the SEC, will that make the share price go up or down?
Asking for a friend.

 

[Drumheller]

Well that's interesting.
View attachment 772957

I hope this isn't just Elon being optimistic. I hope there is a mountain of evidence that gets exposed to the point that the media can't downplay it and even non-stock-trading people see just how corrupt the SEC is. This needs to be a *gasp* moment for people that brush it off as conspiracy theory.

 

[Nocturnal]

OK, so I have a question.
If Elon secures some sort of momentous victory against the SEC, will that make the share price go up or down?
Asking for a friend.

A wise person once said, TSLA goes down on good news, down on bad news, and up on no news. So...

I hope this isn't just Elon being optimistic. I hope there is a mountain of evidence that gets exposed to the point that the media can't downplay it and even non-stock-trading people see just how corrupt the SEC is. This needs to be a *gasp* moment for people that brush it off as conspiracy theory.

Our boy is whacky, but I don't think he ever makes things up out of whole cloth.

 

[aznt1217]

Yes this helps thanks. It's big picture which suits Investors just fine. I needed the reminder (just like you probably needed to write it).

I also just realized I'm over 100% TSLA as well but didn't realize it bc I was not including leverage. It's actually 92% in stock, so how do you calculate your leverage. So is it (Total shares in control) x (market value of those share) / (Total in the Acct) = 113.8% (if so).

(Edit: I'm also bleeding, only it's internal and I am keeping all my blood in the end)

I do weird math. Basically I just go by # of Shares that are mine and how many are on margin

 

[Mengy]

Well that's interesting.
View attachment 772957

That's super interesting.

 

[jerry33]

OK, so I have a question.
If Elon secures some sort of momentous victory against the SEC, will that make the share price go up or down?
Asking for a friend.

Yes.

However, if a victory is won, then perhaps the investor protector rules will be put back in place because of a new SEC management that makes the SEC do what the SEC is supposed to do. (In case you didn't know, this is to protect the investors. Right now the SEC protects Wall Street.)

 

[Knightowl]

That's super interesting.

4D chess, but no winning as the SEC is only as corrupt as the gov... We see what justice has come of that so not holding my breath, but am holding all my shares both owned and borrowed!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Just a reminder folks as the P/E guy.......Forward P/E is now trading in the 50's when you factor in that GAAP EPS on Q4 earnings should have been 25% higher due to the one-time hits from Elon's compensation plan and him exercising options. If Tesla does at least 330k deliveries for Q1, Forward P/E would be in the 40's at this share price. If Tesla does like 350k (a stretch, but possible), then Forward P/E could possibly go under the 40 barrier.

If the share price is still at 780 by Q2 earnings and Tesla does 375k or more deliveries, Forward P/E would likely go under 30.

Make your trades accordingly.

 

[wtlloyd]

*sigh*
Satisfying margin, when I could be buying chairs on the cheap. This is no way to run a zoo.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I think any margin buys should be hedged / have tight stops. Otherwise, not worth it imo.

I bought on margin at 802 yesterday and I sold all my margin today at 799.

This was 100% a technical decision. We lost the support of the two year trend channel, the 200 day MA and 800. Fundamentally, now should be an awesome time to buy but, in my opinion, fundamentals can be at the mercy of irrationality for extended periods of time (don't we all know). Technicals give a better view of the near term risk.

I'm still all in but I'm not going to endure the pain with margin.