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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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However, without that, if pushed, Germany could prevent both their registration and export.
Or they might not.

I'm not sure there is a strong motivation by German authorities to harm or punish Tesla.

Approvals are just going through the normal German process.

Either way Tesla knew the likely outcome when they built the cars, they will have a use for them,

One alternative is the cars need a more rigorous check by road transport officials, before they can be registered, that might be a slow process.
 
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A "key reversal" is the only thing I know of. Otherwise, you just have to have the guts to buy in when you think think the value is too good not too.

A key reversal is when you have a massive drop in the share price then it bounces back and actually closes above the opening price. From what I see in the premarket, it won't shock me if we have a key reversal today. But then, there's really nothing that would shock me today.
Hey! Key Reversal!
 
Elon did intent on manipulating the stock price....downward with his poll...lol
In fact the entire saga was very theatrical, perhaps intended to put pressure on the stock price so no one can say he secretly sold at a high, hence why Gary B was extremely vocal about it.
Elon's twitter posts gave other investors a big heads-up and and advanced notice of his impending stock sale. Did it drive the price down? Probably. But remember, he could have just dumped his shares with no advanced notice, like virtually every other insider holding stock does. And by doing so he could have made a LOT more money off that sale. So just what, in the eyes of the SEC, could be wrong with that?
 
Many of these vehicles go to things like training first responders. How can I be so sure?
View attachment 773421View attachment 773420
I'm a volunteer fireman-would love to play with a burning one and get trained on just what it takes to put out a battery fire. Though given the battery shortage, I wonder if those were equipped with fully functional battery packs? May have been more of a body build/paint line exercise? Just speculating.
 
Elon's twitter posts gave other investors a big heads-up and and advanced notice of his impending stock sale. Did it drive the price down? Probably. But remember, he could have just dumped his shares with no advanced notice, like virtually every other insider holding stock does. And by doing so he could have made a LOT more money off that sale. So just what, in the eyes of the SEC, could be wrong with that?

Shorts did not get to make as much money as they could have?
 
I'm pretty sure there's a plan for some of those 1000 cars+

The original pre-approval with Tesla asking for 2k cars up from 250 was not so that Tesla can just make a bunch of cars to scrap. The document clearly expressed the intent from Tesla which was to ramp the car to satisfactory quality, and that assembly line is subjected to inspection+approval. So if they made cars beyond what they considered to be...customer ready quality, then it means those particular cars most likely CAN be sold once the line inspection is completely. If not then there's zero reason for Tesla to make anymore cars beyond what is needed to reach delivery quality.
 
Tesla's Miraculously Minimal Inventory

Tesla these days is operating with extremely low inventory throughout their whole business, which is a majorly underappreciated advantage that multiplies the power of their other advantages.

I just sent an email about this to the Munro & Associates team, because I can't believe no one is talking about this and I hope they will do so on Munro Live. If not, maybe some of you are interested in reading my analysis, so here it is.



Hello Munro & Associates team,

[Greeting and intro omitted]

Near-Zero Inventory
At Shanghai they literally do not even have a supply warehouse for materials and parts inventory, according to a few videos Tesla released in 2021 (links at end of this email). As far as I know, this is unprecedented in any major manufacturing plant anywhere in the world.

Additionally, in the videos, I have noticed a conspicuous absence of almost any lineside inventory; hardly any shelving, carts, pallet queues, kanban bins or any other typical lineside storage can be seen. It seems they barely even use forklifts.

Semi trucks show up to the site, unload supplies on the side of the factory directly adjacent to the production line, and within probably an hour at most, the materials/components are on vehicles. They said at the time of the interview that they were processing nearly 2,000 shipping containers per day in the 97 loading docks. This works out to approximately 20 containers per bay each day, for an average cycle time of merely 70 minutes or so. Plus, they also localized the majority of their supply chain to nearby Chinese suppliers. In effect, this too reduces Tesla's inventory in their overall value chain because fewer parts and materials are in transit at any given moment.

Additionally, I'm astonished by the implications this all has on the level of quality control throughout the entire value chain that must have been achieved in order to enable having inventory buffers this low in the first place. Inventory exists fundamentally to accommodate variation by allowing the show to go on while an operation is deviating from an ideal state of continuous one-piece flow. If Tesla is producing thousands of cars per week from Shanghai with such low inventory, then this is strong evidence that they have drastically reduced variation and thus have increased first-pass quality to a level unheard of in the industry. I think the biggest factors driving this are:
  • Using gigacastings for better dimensional precision for the structure (monolithic pieces means no tolerance stackup issues)
  • New technique of building up most of the chassis on its own and then marrying with the body-in-white vertically
  • Ergonomic improvements to the general assembly line, such as the Supertub and using a feederline for buildup of the whole dashboard assembly
  • Extensive robotic automation
  • Having employees who genuinely care about the company succeeding in their mission, such that they do the right thing even when no one is watching or telling them to do so
Massive Direct Cost Savings
Inventory reduction on this scale saves big money for Tesla.
  • Less capital required for work-in-progress
    • This increases overall return on capital, because the company earns nothing extra from this investment since inventory is non-value-added to the customer.
    • An ideal production line would, by magic, instantaneously transform raw materials to a completed widget in the customer's possession.
  • The upfront costs of the storage
    • Land
    • Building design and construction
    • Storage equipment: Bins, Drawers, Shelving, Racks, Pallets, Labels & Scanners, etc.
    • Transit equipment: Trucks, Forklifts, AGVs, etc.
  • Recurring warehouse operating and maintenance costs
    • Property tax
    • HVAC
    • Lighting
    • Building maintenance
    • Janitorial services

  • Extra transportation of materials
    • Moving items to and from storage locations is non-value added to the customer
    • Ongoing forklifts/truck/AGVs operating and maintenance expenses plus compensation for operators
    • More opportunity for a vehicle breakdown to disrupt production flow, introducing opportunity costs, overtime labor costs, expedited shipping costs, etc.
    • Safety costs (forklifts and trucks are one of the most common causes of severe industrial injuries, and even when no one is getting hurt, they still have to spend time and mental energy focusing on avoiding nearby vehicles)

  • Risk to the materials themselves
    • Damage in transit
    • Damage while stored (fire, leaking pipe or roof, earthquake, etc.)
    • Expiration (for materials like chemicals)
    • Theft
    • Accidental loss from misplacement

Design-Build Cycle Acceleration
Besides the fact that reducing inventory is obviously a fundamental goal of industrial engineering because it directly helps with lean just-in-time manufacturing, the advantage is compounded by the way Tesla uses extremely agile rapid-change design engineering practices. The shorter lag time from design modification to new parts arriving on the production line means pace of innovation is less often going to be constrained by this factor.

Reducing inventory also improves the areal and volumetric density of value-added steps within the building, which also improves the rate of innovation. Obviously, inventory takes up space on the factory floor. Having worked at the enormous Boeing campus in Everett, I saw how distance can be a big impediment to having tight feedback loops. For instance, the delivery flightline is a 20 minute walk from the factory or 5-10 minutes by tricycle. And most of the design engineers work in buildings that are 10-20 minutes of walking away from the factory and adjacent production facilities. Having the shortest possible distance between production steps facilitates communication, visual controls like Andons, and more productive gemba walks. In an interview from earlier this year, Tom Zhu, the president of Tesla China, said he spends at least an hour every single morning doing a full walk of the production line. The less distance he has to walk, the more information value he's getting out of each minute of walking. Also, psychology and time constraints dictate that in general, most people will not walk more than about 100 meters to solve a problem face to face rather than ignoring it or making a phone call. So, the density of people per 100 meter radius has a big impact on how fast ideas will spread, or be sparked by random conversations. Overall, simply having less junk in the way speeds up innovation.

Video References
These videos contain a lot more juicy manufacturing info than just inventory reduction stuff, but they clearly show the inventory system Tesla is using.

Inside Giga Shanghai new video w/ english subtitles

[English-Subtitled] Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai Exclusive Media Tour interview Part 1
and Part 2
and Part 3

Inside Gigafactory Shanghai - a Guided Tour of Tesla's most productive Factory

Selected Screenshots

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SJgkeBCgw2AwM0sR53zoRiBXaejlx9gjLiOXtqNbN5PM6aVVduAqipv1UbCKu0PEudaU6oucSFpouVXjGn7vIJOxhb58XJMH7qtW30jkD7yMXlmX0bnupqRWrfKHTJzbtQSVs0Pg




1645752479330.png

^ Supertub - Slide 42 of 2019 Impact Report


pWkYs6vhOnmJlwmycd0WRXaLKpoZJYd0vR3HEcWtHVOsrcvhjuO1ijk1MtKRQrf7GeaBfyRzB0ZJH6_fiW6f0BZRG7hSt0JO_mnVqnU3FFFJFLPDlGUkEHZkIirfboUyxntcabUz

^ Insertion and mating of completed dashboard assembly from feederline


oWE6pREv3Z0Pe-YNFRoZDbDLGNiDSsMIyZ4zcnA8MyHaeFh7l79Wpk2OrVEWynHP53b81Yh-gODs94Lhv9pObKELzrEKrEgQamYCU5vK9lZNHr4PEG1oH_9-rd94BNC1DdxHPWJy

^ Marriage of body-in-white and chassis/partially completed interior assembly, facilitated by elevators and AGVs
 
If not then there's zero reason for Tesla to make anymore cars beyond what is needed to reach delivery quality.
Wrong. It doesn't mean anything if you can make one perfect car per day. You use the time to train staff and increase the line speed. If you can make 200 perfect cars in a day maybe you could stop then. But the goal is more than 1,500 cars per day. And if you can have the staff trained, and the kinks worked out of the equipment, at speed, prior to the real production start you can hit the ground running at speed instead of wasting the first month on a slow production ramp.
 
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The best time to purchase a Tesla is always “today” or “tomorrow” - as they keep updating hardware and software.

For ex - new interior.. new refresh… New Amd chip, new matrix headlights, tail lights, heated steering, heated wipers, Who knows maybe 17” screen for all models in future…

Not to mention the range increases..

Cheaper Price is not always the justification for “best”
 
The best time to purchase a Tesla is always “today” or “tomorrow” - as they keep updating hardware and software.

For ex - new interior.. new refresh… New Amd chip, new matrix headlights, tail lights, heated steering, heated wipers, Who knows maybe 17” screen for all models in future…

Not to mention the range increases..

Cheaper Price is not always the justification for “best”
Well best time was definitely when it was cheaper AND you get the car in a reasonable time frame. Not many people have the luxury to wait 9 months for a car...and even then it's not guaranteed.