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New Model Y AWD is using 4680 cells.

But what about the chemistry?

If Fremont produced a Model Y SR AWD with 2710 cells by using 72kW cells in the battery pack instead of 82kW in the LR, the weight of the car would be less than Austin made Model Y AWD plus the range would be higher !

My prediction is that 4680s in the new Model Y AWD are using a low cost, low density chemistry based on either an iron cathode or a "manganese" cathode.
Tesla economist reckons it is physically a LR waiting for a paid OTA upgrade. The upgrade will trounce the current LR.
 

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Q2 numbers likely will just present another predictable buying opportunity. We know why the numbers will be down... all temporary.
I totally agree, yet it rips me that I still HODL. Maybe I'll adjust some things. It's a game of chicken, so I just let the universe decide.

The stock split and Q1 ER is all I wanna think about. What happens tomorrow is too dynamic. TSLA is the default parking spot for many longs. If we go into recession, TSLA could be the new gold, and the nuggets are both needed and produced global.

(Too much HODL fanboy? I don't want folks to start saying "Ya-ya-ya, we know... Unicorns fart rainbows.")
 
I was reading an article from the Christian Science Monitor this morning written by a reporter traveling from the US to Beijing via Shanghai. If her experience is typical, travel in China is totally disrupted. Another article from another source said a truck driver bringing a load into Shanghai has to quarantine 14 days. Then, he can take a load back and quarantine 14 days again. That’s one round trip a month per driver. This isn’t encouraging for a fast ramp up.
 
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Hmm, maybe I should look at that thread then... 525A at the pack voltages I'd expect maximum current to be able to be delivered, it would seem that 250KW charging is unlikely... something seems off.
I don’t think the thread went into the 525a thing, it was more a thorough dissection of the range situation, how the testing is done, the actually build location of the 279-mile VIN and the fact that there were actually two sets of paperwork for the same car -- one a revision of the other -- rather than paperwork for one car (279-mile range Dual Motor) with paperwork for a second mystery car still hanging out there as many internet “influencers” had claimed.
Just trying to save you a slog... there is quite a bit in that thread about this but its spread over dozens of pages between mostly other stuff.
 
I think it is just because Munro was over the moon because _he_ was sure bottom cooling would be enough. I am sure we never heard Tesla say so…

It wasn't just Sandy Munro who considered the advantages of end plate cooling for 4680 structural packs. The following thermal analysis was done by a specialist Mechanical Engineer in Sep 2020:

Tesla 4680 Cell: Thermal Analysis Suggests Unique Cooling ... insideevs.com

Background:​

"On Battery Day, Tesla told us that the biggest barrier to a larger format cell was cooling the cell, and that its new tabless electrode design fixes that problem. This cooling problem was what made Tesla limit to 2170 cell size in Model 3 and Model Y. The new tabless design allows Tesla to move to this much larger new cell.​
"The problem with large diameter cells is that, as you increase diameter, the cell’s heat rejection goes up much faster than the surface area, so your ability to remove heat through the sides of the cell gets worse with larger diameter cells."​

In the diagram labeled "4680 Cell-Based Battery Section" locate the part called "Structural Micro-Channel Bottom Cooling Plate"

tesla-4680-battery-analysis.jpg


Now, the analysis above concluded that Tesla would be able to discard the side cooling ribbons, but clearly that has not happened (we can see they have them in photos taken on Apr 7, 2022). But, we can not simply ignore the fundamental problem with large diameter cells as identified by Tesla on Battery day: heat from deep within the cell must have a path out or the cell will overheat.

This is a main benefit of the tabless electrode cell design: it provides a thermal pathway from the deep core of the cell to the endplates (clearly the copper electrode will get too hot if it's not cooled). This could be done either by direct contact to a cooling plate, or through a heat sink providing a thermal path to the side cooling tubes.

Could Tesla be doing both endplate and side cooling for 4680 cells?

We don't know which it is right now, simple as that. But one solution to all these requirements is that Tesla may have decided to cool the cells both from the sides and from the endplates. I trust that Sandy Munro will buy a Texas Std AWD Model Yand show us with a teardown how it works.

Cheers!
 
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Do we have confirmation that the new Standard Range Model Y from Austin is using the NCA chemistry? Because it is not the highest range but more than what would be in an LFP pack, I wonder whether it is using LNMO instead.

Manganese is dirt cheap, so it would be great if they could use it to substitute partially for nickel.

I know that we went round-and-round on this a couple of months ago, but it would seem to be an important detail because of the cost differentials.
 
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I try to stay out of the technical discussion in this thread, but it sure seemed like it was fact here that bottom cooling was the plan.

That's why I advocate for technical discussion in technical forums, so concensus can be reached in a more organized fashion.
Agree this is not a technical thread, but when things wrongly «seems like a fact» I am inclined to comment. Tesla did not miss on bottom-only cooling, this was pure conjecture from Munro - him beeing wrong should not smidge to be a «Tesla miss». Too many confuse sources (some actively contribute), we do need to separate facts from guesses and conjectures…
 
Breaking ;-)

EDIT2: apparently this was viewable yesterday - Tesla $TSLA Acquired $LTUM Lithium Corporation, A Lithium mining company based in Nevada - Benzinga

NEWS: Tesla has confirmed that it acquired Nevada-based lithium mining company $LTUM Lithium Corporation.


I'm surprised this has been under the radar. For example, no mention of this on Apple's Stock app for TSLA. This seems like a BFD to me.
 
It's not as if he's a young person who's personality will suddenly be influenced by new found fame, I think he was genuinely surprised by all the attention and expressed that in the video. He's spent most of his life working in relative obscurity and suddenly people are swarming to talk to him everywhere he goes. He's always made some mistakes in his analysis of Tesla but overall he's usually more right than wrong.
not sure this amount of video was needed to make this point.... one sentence could cover it.... we get it ;)... i am still open to his videos but i will be a lot more discerning going forward.. that all
 
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I'm surprised this has been under the radar. For example, no mention of this on Apple's Stock app for TSLA. This seems like a BFD to me.

Seems like a really small company though? Total market cap was ~30 million.... in contrast somebody like Piedmont Lithium (the folks who are years behind filing their permits to fulfil contracts with Tesla) are like a 1.5 billion dollar company.


(that said I did YOLO some shares of it when I saw the news and it's up over 120% at the moment)


EDIT- Sold for 3x what I bought the shares for.... even owned by Tesla I don't see a 3x in market cap (4x from what it was yesterday) as being anything more than a FOMO rally.
 
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I'm surprised this has been under the radar. For example, no mention of this on Apple's Stock app for TSLA. This seems like a BFD to me.
Super small company that doesn't make any money. For long-term growth and securing future supply at lower costs this makes sense. For the stock, mining is typically very low margin and not something that is likely to improve profitability in the near term for Tesla. If anything I'd expect a small negative to to the stock. But ~30m company is a drop in the bucket, doubt the market will really care on the Tesla side...