Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hacer]

Ugh. More stagflationary readings…

I saw it coming 2 years ago

 

[bkp_duke]

Regarding the 0.6% core increase:
Airfares increased 18.6% pushing Transportation up 3.1%, pretty much the main driver. New vehicles up 1.1%, medical and shelter up 0.5%. Everything else was under the 0.4% expectation.
View attachment 802904

Transportation is so closely tied to energy costs, a strong argument could be made that including Transportation in the Core CPI is a sub-optimal approach and it should be either tied to Energy, split into Energy and Non-Energy portions, or have it's own category.

Not an economist, however.

 

[Mengy]

The only issue with Bitcoin is that it is a poor use of cash and that will be underlined by a loss. It doesn't have any real impact on the company other than a poor allocation of resources.

I honestly agree with this statement.

 

[thx1139]

The only issue with Bitcoin is that it is a poor use of cash and that will be underlined by a loss. It doesn't have any real impact on the company other than a poor allocation of resources.

Crypto is just dumb

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Yup. I said that at the time of purchase and it remains true. Does nothing positive for Tesla’s mission or Tesla’s finances. Just a pure blunder.

Hey, it's for hedging against inflation. Anyone checked how that's going?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I honestly agree with this statement.

Mixed bag on the inflation report. I expect the top line numbers to flood the headlines while the actual details paint a different story, or at least a mixed story since there’s some key items pushing the top line number higher than expectations.

TSLA in specific is getting weaker and weaker. Down 4X the macros. If there is another leg down for the macros, TSLA isn’t going to hold up well. Seems pretty clear what’s going to happen over the next month and a half until we get Q2 P/D numbers. Gotta love how wall st can completely miss the boat and still get shares at a discount

Now down 6X the macros. Extremely weak.

Regarding the 0.6% core increase:
Airfares increased 18.6% pushing Transportation up 3.1%, pretty much the main driver. New vehicles up 1.1%, medical and shelter up 0.5%. Everything else was under the 0.4% expectation.
View attachment 802904

and @mongo here has already called out some of those items. I expect the market to ignore this and I continue the narrative

 

[henchman24]

Could be. Like a relief rally. (sell the rumor and buy the news type ....)

Nailed it

 

[Drax7]

Regarding the 0.6% core increase:
Airfares increased 18.6% pushing Transportation up 3.1%, pretty much the main driver. New vehicles up 1.1%, medical and shelter up 0.5%. Everything else was under the 0.4% expectation.
View attachment 802904

Thank you, airfairs also affected by high crude oil prices.

Back in the day we used to say if you exclude
red cars , the cpi would be negative.

 

[Xd85]

Mixed bag on the inflation report. I expect the top line numbers to flood the headlines while the actual details paint a different story, or at least a mixed story since there’s some key items pushing the top line number higher than expectations.

TSLA in specific is getting weaker and weaker. Down 4X the macros. If there is another leg down for the macros, TSLA isn’t going to hold up well. Seems pretty clear what’s going to happen over the next month and a half until we get Q2 P/D numbers. Gotta love how wall st can completely miss the boat and still get shares at a discount

Now down 6X the macros. Extremely weak.

and @mongo here has already called out some of those items. I expect the market to ignore this and I continue the narrative

I guess there are points where it’s infinite times down macros

 

[mars_or_bust]

(0,128,0)

 

[thx1139]

Honestly why does anyone think inflation will abate any time soon? Still have structural issues caused by COVID. We see the freighters stuck offshore still. We have labor shortages made worse by over 1 million dead caused by COVID (Actually deaths vs expected deaths is far higher), over 1.5 million not able to work because of Long COVID and finally corporations willing to take advantage and raise prices even higher knowing that it will all be blamed on Biden.

My son in Austin got notice of his rent being increased by 27% ($650). He got the notice 5 days before they had to give 60 days notice that they werent going to stay. They were going to stay especially since he they are getting married in July and a move right before the event would be hard. Costs didnt increase by 27%.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I saw it coming 2 years ago

Except that we're absolutely nowhere near stagflation.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Transportation is so closely tied to energy costs, a strong argument could be made that including Transportation in the Core CPI is a sub-optimal approach and it should be either tied to Energy, split into Energy and Non-Energy portions, or have it's own category.

Not an economist, however.

Lol, Mr. Market thinks you are.

Cheers!

 

[OrthoSurg]

The following technical analyst agrees that tomorrow's CPI report will be a big turning point for the market. He cites many indicators suggesting the direction will be up, but of course he can't guarantee that.

If the market drops and you need cheering up, Lars describes some reasons why Tesla's factories are far ahead of competition. One rumor I hadn't heard before:

"Someone like Joe Justice even thinks Tesla's [Texas] factory could potentially become a 10-million vehicle production facility down the road when Tesla gets to utilize all the cubic volume of the factory." (15:55)​

​

Interesting take on the fed. Everyone I am talking to is max fear and staying cash

 

[henchman24]

Crypto is just dumb

I'm not on the crypto is dumb bandwagon (certainly has uses and potential... though we are in 2001 for it), but it is a very poor use of company resources in a company like Tesla.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Regarding the 0.6% core increase:
Airfares increased 18.6% pushing Transportation up 3.1%, pretty much the main driver. New vehicles up 1.1%, medical and shelter up 0.5%. Everything else was under the 0.4% expectation.
View attachment 802904

The first line "All items" has a story to tell. I'd say give it a month. I haven't digested the report, but this looks like Oil dripped dropped slightly in Apr. And since everything runs on Energy, I think we should see an overall improvement in CPI. Key difference now is that it's seasonally warming in EU and NA so oil demand is dropping, I would only assume. And with all the chaos in markets, I wouldn't be surprised to see a surplus of oil that's enough for the EU/world to cut off the Piddly Putin Pipeline Putin's oil for the summer months. Yup, that's my prediction, on a whim, unscientific, swag, not advising

(Edit: OMG, that was poetry... sorry FIFY.)

 

[dc_h]

Does anyone have updates on the status of the Lathrop Megapack factory? The building Tesla site shows progress, but I have not heard of significant shipments or new projects. This plant is slated to produce 40GW of Megapacks annually, or about 20 billion in revenue. This also has a big impact on natural gas demand, directly impacting utility scale gas demand.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Does anyone have updates on the status of the Lathrop Megapack factory? The building Tesla site shows progress, but I have not heard of significant shipments or new projects. This plant is slated to produce 40GW of Megapacks annually, or about 20 billion in revenue. This also has a big impact on natural gas demand, directly impacting utility scale gas demand.

The factory was just completed in April so I’m not expecting much production until Q3 since they have to ramp the production lines there.

Though, since Megapacks are exponentially easier to produce than cars, it’s hard to tell what the ramp will look like

That would have actually been a good question for the earnings call last month

 

[mongo]

The first line "All items" has a story to tell. I'd say give it a month. I haven't digested the report, but this looks like Oil dripped slightly in Apr. And since everything runs on Energy, I think we should see an overall improvement in CPI. Key difference now is that it's seasonally warming in EU and NA so oil demand is dropping, I would only assume. And with all the chaos in markets, I wouldn't be surprised to see a surplus of oil that's enough for the EU/world to cut off the Piddly Putin Pipeline for the summer months. Yup, that's my prediction, on a whim, unscientific, swag, not advising

View attachment 802913

Ah yes, the smile with tongue hanging out pattern. I lick it.
Gasoline category was up 18.3% last month, that could definitely account for ticket price increase.

 

[mad474]