Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Christine69420]

I clicked on the article (reluctantly) and its source is a German article, but does not link to the actual issues being seen or the report. Maybe a German who lives in Germany can find the actual data? I'll wait for the actual data to form an opinion.

As a guess, I'd suspect that the actual data would show that these 'issues' being found are innocuous as Tesla's warranty costs have been declining overtime and if someone rolled into the inspection not knowing they had these issues, how bad could they be? and these Tesla's are still under warranty as well so maybe the owner hasn't done due diligence in getting them fixed?

In EU we all have to show our cars for inspection every other year. It is very common for these tests to find issues like almost worn out brakes and other common car problems from missing tail lights to more serious damages scrapping the car. These tests are usually performed by garages who then offer to fix the issues on the spot. So a few hours after failing the test the car passes the test and is again roadworthy.

It's a big nothingburger!

 

[henchman24]

PMI came in weak especially in services.

 

[JRP3]

But every day Tesla’s enemies spend focusing on how to smear Elon instead of bettering their product…every investigative documentary attempting to slow down FSD’s progress instead of working on their own AI, is another day where Tesla has moved the ball considerably forward.

You think these guys are on the competitions AI team?

 

[JusRelax]

PMI came in weak especially in services.

Isn't that a good thing, indicating that inflation is slowing down so makes 75bps rate hikes less likely?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Isn't that a good thing, indicating that inflation is slowing down so makes 75bps rate hikes less likely?

Actually if you look beyond the headline numbers in the report it indicates that inflation is a big problem, albeit it increased at a lower rate than in April.

“Meanwhile, input prices soared higher again, with the pace of increase edging up to a new series high (since October 2009). Firms reported a substantial uptick in cost burdens, largely driven by a record-breaking rise in service sector input prices. The rate of cost inflation at manufacturers also accelerated and was among the fastest in the series history.

The surge in input prices was linked by companies to supplier-driven price hikes for a wide variety of goods and services as demand often continued to outstrip supply, as well as higher interest rates, wage bills, fuel costs and higher transportation fees.
Average prices levied for goods and services also rose markedly, albeit with the rate of inflation easing from April’s series-record high as some companies reported challenges passing further surges in costs on to customers. The pace of increase was the second-fastest on record, however.”

 

[henchman24]

Isn't that a good thing, indicating that inflation is slowing down so makes 75bps rate hikes less likely?

Makes 75bps less likely, but is raising red flags of recession.

On services, the growth is likely all due to inflation as well.

 

[Xd85]

Makes 75bps less likely, but is raising red flags of recession.

On services, the growth is likely all due to inflation as well.

how many more flags can be raised before the next one is meaningless?

 

[henchman24]

how many more flags can be raised before the next one is meaningless?

42

 

[SOULPEDL]

My 2018 3 wasn't perfect, but it was pretty damn good. Slight panel issue on the hood and I ended up getting a taillight and stalk replaced. I've bought plenty of new cars in my life, and I have yet to have one that is perfect. Doubt I ever will.

You should go talk to @The Accountant. Says his is perfect. (Don't drive it then!)

There are panel gap people and then there's the rest of us. I see it as a personality flaw when everything must be perfect. Control issues, never really satisfied. There's nothing like a perfect "looking" car, but it's all most can measure besides a test drive. But have you heard about Cpk???

For all the quality metrics and variables in any vehicle's production, visual artifacts are pretty low on my list (unless obvious). It says nothing about Cpk (measure of process stability and control). We can't know those numbers externally, but we can see them in cost of warranty dropping over time. That's a much better public facing quality metric IMHO.

She may look good, but will she last as long as the next one? That's Cpk and Quality speak. Door gaps are certain to be on the list, but nowhere near the number of variables in paint for example, or torque on bolts, or if a human touched something before application. Things we wouldn't know, but really matter. When robots take over production, quality will take on another step increase.

 

[Todd Burch]

Yeah...umm...isn't inflation and recession already priced in at this point?

 

[gtrplyr1]

Are people

Somebody is making a bet that Elon walks away from Twitter on Wednesday.

One can only hope

 

[JusRelax]

Makes 75bps less likely, but is raising red flags of recession.

On services, the growth is likely all due to inflation as well.

If that's the case, would there have been any way for the PMI numbers to look good?

Numbers come in high -> fears of inflation = market goes down
Numbers come in low -> fears of recession = market goes down
Numbers come in as expected -> continued uncertainty in market, waiting for other reports that point either towards inflation or recession = market goes down

 

[henchman24]

Yeah...umm...isn't inflation and recession already priced in at this point?

For the SP500, recessions 'normally' hit the 200 week MA (Nasdaq add 50 weeks), but 22-25% down (peak to trough). We are ~7% away from the 200 week MA, but have a low down of ~21% which I'd consider close enough. So... ugh... maybe? maybe not?

 

[Singuy]

Yeah...umm...isn't inflation and recession already priced in at this point?

Bears: "is the market at zero?"
Market: "no"
Bears: "then inflation/recession is not priced in"

 

[henchman24]

If that's the case, would there have been any way for the PMI numbers to look good?

Numbers come in high -> fears of inflation
Numbers come in low -> fears of recession
Numbers come in as expected -> continued uncertainty in market, waiting for other reports that point either towards inflation or recession

High would have counter acted the fear thrown in by SNAP's guidance and the market would likely wait for a better inflation number (friday brings the final numbers for April)

 

[johnm6875]

I've never seen this on my Yahoo Finance page:

 

[mongo]

I clicked on the article (reluctantly) and its source is a German article, but does not link to the actual issues being seen or the report. Maybe a German who lives in Germany can find the actual data? I'll wait for the actual data to form an opinion.

As a guess, I'd suspect that the actual data would show that these 'issues' being found are innocuous as Tesla's warranty costs have been declining overtime and if someone rolled into the inspection not knowing they had these issues, how bad could they be? and these Tesla's are still under warranty as well so maybe the owner hasn't done due diligence in getting them fixed?

The main items called out at the 3 year inspections were: suspension wishbone, low beams, fog lamp. Latter two were possibly moisture condensation issues.

 

[ZachF]

How is a company that could literally disappear from existence and change basically nobody’s life (SNAP) causing 4-8% drops in Apple, Google, Amazon, Tesla and FB?!?!

 

[henchman24]

If this market wide support doesn't hold, the odds of testing 10,700 becomes very high. Which probably means Tesla will test 590. Need the market to hold here.

 

[gtrplyr1]

We are almost at 50% of the ATH. Snap should NOT have this kind of effect on the overall market but unfortunately it's fear and panic time.

It seems like every rally is sold off and people are not buying the dips ... I, for one, do not wish for any more "buying opportunities" .... Not sure what provides any momentum for this stock as numbers are a ways off and even those Q2 number might not be great. Elon ending the Twitter deal would help but I'm not holding my breath for even that to provide a bounce.

Strap in .... as this could get a lot uglier.

I'm strongly considering selling shares at 620 (IRA no tax consequence) ..... I can buy back later and if I miss some upside I don't really care. At this point ... I'm more interested in stemming the bleeding.