Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1549488570095869958

Troy's Q2 earnings forecast. Very interesting.

The big variables for earnings to me are :

- How much of price hikes flowed into ASP in Q2
- How many Model 3's coming off lease was Tesla able to resell and for how much (this has double impact because of the warranty reserves estimates that Tesla put on the lease and then how much Tesla was able to sell the Model 3 over the set price they had for leased vehicle at handover)
- More cars starting to come off of warranty and thus we should be seeing "Services" start to trend into the positive margin consistently soon.
- How much did Tesla intentionally prioritize high trim orders, especially orders with FSD purchased

I expect GAAP to come in over $2............We'll see if I'm crazy.

 

[WattsHappening]

I know Troy uses a bottoms-up analysis to get to his final numbers. I hate to get my hopes up, but with all the uncertainty and moving pieces (and resulting pessimism), I could see Tesla surprising to the upside this quarter. Especially if ASP increases kicked in harder than component and raw materials costs, I can see how he gets to a higher gross margin.

If he is right and auto margins are 32%+, Wed after hours and Thursday morning should be fun.

 

[PKEllefsen]

Why would Semi or Cybertruck slow Austin? They are non-overlapping in terms of plant floorspace and the factory was build around multiple vehicle lines.

True, but i would assume Tesla have many of the same executives and experts in the process of expanding and creating the production lines. I would believe Elon also having a part in each of the setups as he considers himself to be the most knowledgeable person when it comes to manufacturing. I might be wrong though, but expansion seems to be a complicated process.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Some more info on V4 superchargers. Is it possible to determine what the max charge rate of V4 superchargers would be from this document?

V4 - Google Drive

drive.google.com

Taken from:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1548882714866106369

New details:

Tesla V4 Supercharger design confirmed: Megacharger look-alike

Tesla has revealed the design of their next generation V4 Supercharger in architectural drawings for a new station in Danvers, Massachusetts. Last week we reported on the design of the V4 Supercharger, revealing that it […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[The Accountant]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1549488570095869958

Troy's Q2 earnings forecast. Very interesting.

This would stun the automotive world and even the most bullish on Wall Street.
Gross Margins increasing from 30% in Q1 to 31.1% in Q2 despite the ramp up of two new factories and the prolonged shutdown at Tesla's most cost efficient factory.

. . . .and you know what? . . .this is possible.

I can see from the numbers that @Troy has estimated a huge increase in Average Selling Price and it is my belief that Troy has better data on ASP than most forecasters. Not getting my hopes too high but there's a possibility for a gross margin increase.

EDIT: @Gigapress has been anticipating a huge spike in ASP . . .perhaps this is the quarter !!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Now updated for Dave Lee and Troy Teslike:

View attachment 830311

Is it safe to say anything over $2 and we're off to the races?

 

[Max Plaid]

How do you not get put on TSLAQ blacklist? My first TSLA support post 3 years ago and I got immediately put on blocklist:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1137716322014392320

"$TSLAQ loses money" - he got that right, at least...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

This would stun the automotive world and even the most bullish on Wall Street.
Gross Margins increasing from 30% in Q1 to 31.1% in Q2 despite the ramp up of two new factories and the prolonged shutdown at Tesla's most cost efficient factory.

. . . .and you know what? . . .this is possible.

I can see from the numbers that Troy is estimated a huge increase in Average Selling Price and it is my belief that Troy has the best data on ASP than most forecasters. Not getting my hopes too high but there's a possibility for a gross margin increase.

EDIT: @Gigapress has been anticipating a huge spike in ASP . . .perhaps this is the quarter !!

View attachment 830314

Remember Tesla's investor relations head was making tweets about Tesla's margin just a month ago. I believe it was you that pointed it out.

No one should bank on gross margins expanding but it was a peculiarly tweet to make

 

[mongo]

True, but i would assume Tesla have many of the same executives and experts in the process of expanding and creating the production lines. I would believe Elon also having a part in each of the setups as he considers himself to be the most knowledgeable person when it comes to manufacturing. I might be wrong though, but expansion seems to be a complicated process.

Not sure how involved Elon would be in line commissioning, but even if so, the existing lines would already be ramped and healthy, so why would they they be impacted?

New vehicles are entirely separate lines, not expansion of existing ones. (At these volumes)

 

[WattsHappening]

This would stun the automotive world and even the most bullish on Wall Street.
Gross Margins increasing from 30% in Q1 to 31.1% in Q2 despite the ramp up of two new factories and the prolonged shutdown at Tesla's most cost efficient factory.

. . . .and you know what? . . .this is possible.

I can see from the numbers that @Troy has estimated a huge increase in Average Selling Price and it is my belief that Troy has better data on ASP than most forecasters. Not getting my hopes too high but there's a possibility for a gross margin increase.

EDIT: @Gigapress has been anticipating a huge spike in ASP . . .perhaps this is the quarter !!

View attachment 830314

You are NOT helping me to tamp down my expectations. It's gonna be a long 23 hours......

 

[Ogre]

New details:

View attachment 830316

Tesla V4 Supercharger design confirmed: Megacharger look-alike

Tesla has revealed the design of their next generation V4 Supercharger in architectural drawings for a new station in Danvers, Massachusetts. Last week we reported on the design of the V4 Supercharger, revealing that it […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Looking at the illustration I can’t help but think this design kills a couple birds here. If this is mounted in the center of the space, the longer cable could conceivably reach any of the 4 corners of a vehicle. It’s long enough to swing to either side of the car and you could pull in forwards or reverse if it’s on the front or rear of the car.

It’s only cars like the Porsche with their stupid side mounted charge port which will be a problem. It might be possible if they pull in just right though.

 

[Nocturnal]

You all should subscribe to Netflix if you aren't already because their performance this quarter is going to help us a ton tomorrow. Plus, Stranger Things is awesome.

After P&D I moved back to nearly 100% TSLA (barring my SpaceX investment and real estate etc.) Maybe tomorrow disappoints but I'm positive Q3 won't.

 

[elasalle]

BTC up to 23K+ from the 17K lows from like 2 weeks back ….
Macros trending….

 

[larmor]

This would stun the automotive world and even the most bullish on Wall Street.
Gross Margins increasing from 30% in Q1 to 31.1% in Q2 despite the ramp up of two new factories and the prolonged shutdown at Tesla's most cost efficient factory.

. . . .and you know what? . . .this is possible.

I can see from the numbers that @Troy has estimated a huge increase in Average Selling Price and it is my belief that Troy has better data on ASP than most forecasters. Not getting my hopes too high but there's a possibility for a gross margin increase.

EDIT: @Gigapress has been anticipating a huge spike in ASP . . .perhaps this is the quarter !!

View attachment 830314

I don't think the report will be that rosy for this quarter, since it takes alot of effort and capital to get a factory going. But the ramp of the factory and ongoing improved throughput will be an important marker.

 

[BornToFly]

You are NOT helping me to tamp down my expectations. It's gonna be a long 23 hours......

Just imagine if Telsa had a Sell Stop-Loss order on Bitcoin and there is no impairment....

(P.S. - We do tend to get overly optimistic around here and perpetually disappointed)

 

[dhanson865]

Now updated for Dave Lee and Troy Teslike:

View attachment 830311

I wonder if Rob Maurer has setteled his forecast yet. If you aren't aware he puts it up on Shareloft (his new site) before putting it up on youtube.

Probably worth changing his tag from (Youtube) to (Shareloft + Youtube). I'd be afraid using a slash would make someone think it's a URL.

 

[Ohmster]

Yesterday, the Barrett Riley crash jury trial reached a verdict. If I understand correctly, the total damages were $10.5 million and Tesla was 1% responsible, meaning that Tesla would be on the hook $105,000.

Jury Says Tesla Was Negligent But Blames Driver For Crash - Law360

A jury on Monday found Tesla negligent for a crash in a 2014 Model S that killed two Florida teens and awarded $10.5 million in damages, but assigned 99% of the blame for the crash to the teenage driver and his father.

www.law360.com

This is messed up. Which is it? 105k or 10.5M???

Jury finds Tesla 1% negligent in fatal Model S crash

A Florida jury found electric car maker Tesla Inc 1% negligent in the death of an 18-year-old man whose Model S sedan slammed into a concrete wall after the car's speed limiter had been deactivated, with the teenager and his father found to be 99% at fault.

www.reuters.com

 

[Open Interest]

On Fast Money Gene Munster battled the negativity and said TSLA is a $2,500 stock in five years.

 

[Zero CO2]

Remember Tesla's investor relations head was making tweets about Tesla's margin just a month ago. I believe it was you that pointed it out.

No one should bank on gross margins expanding but it was a peculiarly tweet to make

does this guy look worried about Q2 gross margins?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1549149003459207169

 

[Drumheller]

On Fast Money Gene Munster battled the negativity and said TSLA is a $2,500 stock in five years.

5 years? My model has TSLA worth about that at the end of 2023, not including future split(s).