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Keep quiet, this sort of thing usually ends poorly.If TSLA can break $314 it will be at a nearly 5-month high (since May 5th)
No. Be louder .. i got some -315c open for this week as insuranceKeep quiet, this sort of thing usually ends poorly.
Then we can eat some Pi...!If TSLA can break $314 it will be at a nearly 5-month high (since May 5th)
Damn, everything's going green. This is a rare instance when the monotone didn't tank everything.
Well, if ARK is holding the same 10% TSLA, then 90% has to go somewhere else, and nothing compares.
At some point during the last TSLA dip, I would've voted to increase the allowance to 20%.
Jay eLon talking about Elon now:
"Not for production" is likely a red herring here. Even if it's not used for production, it could easily allow moving resources out of other locations which are used for production.
Q2 2020 | $ 546 |
Q3 2020 | $ 1,005 |
Q4 2020 | $ 1,151 |
Q1 2021 | $ 1,348 |
Q2 2021 | $ 1,505 |
Q3 2021 | $ 1,819 |
Q4 2021 | $ 1,810 |
Q1 2022 | $ 1,767 |
Q2 2022 | $ 1,730 |
Year | Cash Flow | IRR |
1 | -6.35 | 92% |
2 | -6.35 | |
3 | 17 | |
4 | 17 | |
5 | 17 | |
6 | 17 | |
7 | 17 | |
8 | 17 | |
9 | 17 | |
10 | 17 | |
11 | 17 | |
12 | 17 |
Year | Cash Flow | IRR |
1 | -4 | 169% |
2 | -4 | |
3 | 25 | |
4 | 25 | |
5 | 25 | |
6 | 25 | |
7 | 25 | |
8 | 25 | |
9 | 25 | |
10 | 25 | |
11 | 25 | |
12 | 25 |
169% annualized return on investment. WTF.
I can't estimate this precisely, but with such an extreme result it doesn't even matter for practical purposes. I don't know of any other business in any industry that can generate returns like this, let alone with investments carrying as little risk as this. It's not like this is some speculative venture that we hope will work, like we might see in biotech or pharmaceuticals. This is just for building out more Model Y production facilities.
He is a SCUMBAG.The original Tweet ended with:
“Self-made billionaires” are a myth.
That was said by Robert Reich to reinforce the idea that Elon had his wealth given to him due to some amazing asset owned by his father. The insinuation and how the Tweet ended couldn't have been clearer. So this is misleading and part of it is flat out incorrect, so I agree that Robert Reich is an idiot and a liar.
@Gigapress Another great analysis! I wish your postings were required reading for WS analysts... the SP would be over Mars by now and rightly so.Stunning CapEx Efficiency
Tesla has spent cumulatively $12.7B on capital expenditures since Q2 2020 when Gigas Berlin and Texas began construction. There has also been investment in Shanghai and Fremont as well as other capital expenditures not related to vehicle capacity expansion, so this is an upper bound for how much the new factories cost.
Q2 2020 $ 546 Q3 2020 $ 1,005 Q4 2020 $ 1,151 Q1 2021 $ 1,348 Q2 2021 $ 1,505 Q3 2021 $ 1,819 Q4 2021 $ 1,810 Q1 2022 $ 1,767 Q2 2022 $ 1,730
These initial phases of capacity in Berlin and Austin should be able to yield around 500k cars per year each, or 1M combined. Thus, we can roughly estimate that Tesla can expand production capacity for at most $12.7B / 1M cars/yr = $12.7k per car of annual capacity.
In H1 '22 Tesla earned $9.62B auto gross profit off of 565k deliveries, for a global average of $17k gross profit per car.
Neglecting time-value of money effects to keep this estimation simple, this means Tesla is getting roughly (17-12.7)/12.7 = 30% return on investment just in the first year of factory operation. In other words, the factory pays for itself within less than a year of volume production plus a 30% bonus and then every year thereafter is just gravy.
If we model the factory as lasting 10 years before needing new investment, the cashflows look something approximately like this, and the internal rate of return for the project is a whopping 92%!!
Year Cash Flow IRR 1 -6.35 92% 2 -6.35 3 17 4 17 5 17 6 17 7 17 8 17 9 17 10 17 11 17 12 17
But wait! This was with excessively conservative estimates. Berlin and Austin definitely didn't cost $6.3B each because Tesla also spent a large portion of their CapEx budget on Shanghai, Lathrop, R&D, and more. So let's say these factories actually cost closer to $8B combined for that 1M/year capacity. Now the estimate is $8k investment per car/year.
Also, the new factories are going to earn much more than $17k per car. I think Berlin and Austin will earn closer to $25k per car on average. Now we can estimate that the factories will have paid for themselves 3x over in the first year of volume production, and shockingly the IRR is 169%.
Year Cash Flow IRR 1 -4 169% 2 -4 3 25 4 25 5 25 6 25 7 25 8 25 9 25 10 25 11 25 12 25
169% annualized return on investment. WTF.
I can't estimate this precisely, but with such an extreme result it doesn't even matter for practical purposes. I don't know of any other business in any industry that can generate returns like this, let alone with investments carrying as little risk as this. It's not like this is some speculative venture that we hope will work, like we might see in biotech or pharmaceuticals. This is just for building out more Model Y production facilities.
Basically this guy wants to close his eyes to all the plain facts that are in front of everyone, but instead focus on a point that is tangential exaggeration and obfuscation, and somehow reiterate that is the truth and the only truth. I ahve seen these types. They achieve nothing in life, except keep throwing stones and accusations at others who actually do get things done.We get it you hate Elon but come on, this is painfully obvious. His family owned a SHARE of the mine which made barely a 2x return on the investment. The tweet clearly implies that the mine is the main reason Elon is a billionaire. Also just lazily links it to apartheid when Elon and even his dad didnt support apartheid (read the rebuttal tweet from nafnlaus). You completely ignore the parts where Elon had to graft after moving to America which is not how people with plenty of riches operate.
@KarenRei has moved on from making epic posts here of Tesla’s advantages to Twitter posts of obvious statements that somehow Elon has to respond to.