Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nativewolf]

No! I can't afford to keep mine until we get back up a ways.

It will be curious to see how much Pepsi is really a part of this. Will they just be there with some signs and quick speech to take the "keys" from Elon at the end or will it really be partly a Pepsi event? I'm thinking the former. A Cybertruck wrapped in Pepsi logos might be cool but as Soul mentioned maybe they want a truly heavy load.

Why not a trailer full of pepsi and showing the Semi charging while it's being unloaded? Lots of press for Pepsi, showing the weight limit of the Semi, and showing people how the charging times are intended to be handled

I would Not want charging and unloading at same time. Reason why you don’t see fuel pumps by loading docks. Forklift hit things all the time. Hitting 350v charging cable....not good. They will have truck chargers tucked away where no idiot can drive into them

 

[betstarship]

Prediction (delivery event): Tesla shows off the prototype of the robotaxi tonight.

Context: Tesla takes 2-3 years to get new products into production, so a 2024 addition of Robotaxi production puts it in line with a reveal tonight. Further, Boring Company has been stalling sales work with municipalities recently...and Franz kinda hinted at a new product.

 

[Usain]

In no particular order;

Time
Freedom
Mobility

Those have significant value. Indeed, can anyone even quantify the value with a number?

Anyway, that’s your exponential growth the moment FSD is realized.

There will be no single moment in time when FSD is realized. FSD will continue to improve incrementally for many years as Tesla teaches the system to handle more scenarios better.

I think the best way to look at FSD from an investor point of view is to study use cases. Right now, I see two things that FSD does today better than a human driver:

• Highway driving
• Driving in unfamiliar locations. The reason this is today better than a human alone is that you are freed from concentrating on navigation. You only need to babysit the system, which is easier than having to worry about both traffic and missing the next turn.

So what will be the next use case FSD is likely to solve? What will be the value of that use case?

Some candidates for the near future are:

• Driving better than a human in familiar locations*
• Actually Smart Summon (ASS)
• Reverse summon
• Hands free driving
• Transition from route to parking at home
• Geofenced robotaxi

* Note for the first one I said "better" and not "safer". I don't think many will buy FSD if it is only theoretically safer than a human. Everyone thinks he's an above-average driver. So until users perceive that FSD can drive just as smoothly, with minimal or zero oversight, this use case won't add much value to the stock.

So what other use cases are likely to be solved in the near future? I'm sure I missed some that are on the horizon.

 

[Drumheller]

And I thought it was "Hauling" 81,000 lbs. That sure wasn't clear. So the giant Pepsi bottle might fit and still weight in, but it's tight.

Also, what a royal waste of energy with these 40K lbs "empties" driving around - can't have that. So deliver Pepsi, and pick up what?
Fast Forward... Imagine if transport could coordinate delivery as well as a train, always has something useful to pull, like Uber for Semi.

Got Cargo?

The truck and empty trailer are not 40,000 pounds. Plenty of analysis on various youtube channels but summary is that people are estimating the cab will weigh about the same as a diesel cab, so about the same hauling capacity, except that EV trucks are permitted up to 82,000 total gross weight in USA whereas ICE trucks are limited to 80,000 pounds.

If I've made an error, I'm sure someone will correct it soon.

 

[Nocturnal]

I would Not want charging and unloading at same time. Reason why you don’t see fuel pumps by loading docks. Forklift hit things all the time. Hitting 350v charging cable....not good. They will have truck chargers tucked away where no idiot can drive into them

Wasn't that the plan the whole time? I suppose it's not too difficult to drop the trailer, go charge down the lot a bit and then reconnect.

 

[nativewolf]

And I thought it was "Hauling" 81,000 lbs. That sure wasn't clear. So the giant Pepsi bottle might fit and still weight in, but it's tight.

Also, what a royal waste of energy with these 40K lbs "empties" driving around - can't have that. So deliver Pepsi, and pick up what?
Fast Forward... Imagine if transport could coordinate delivery as well as a train, always has something useful to pull, like Uber for Semi.

Got Cargo?

It shipping this is know as the backhaul, the key to making money. Our logs go out as a backhaul after other logs are dropped at a nearby faculty. It can save us 20%.

 

[Usain]

It's hard for humans to conceptualize exponentials sure, but we can have a rough idea. The problem is knowing WHERE on the graph we are and I don't think anyone knows that. If the X axis is years, are we are 1? 2? 4? For those who are sure we are at 4 or 5, wouldn't you be knee deep in OTM options? I'm not betting on where we are on the graph myself.

View attachment 880150

Agree that FSD is getting close to actually being useful. From my testing we need 1 more update as sizable as 10.69.2 to make it generally a helpful product like early autopilot was.

So if the x-axis is time, what is the y-axis?

We have to define both axes before we can begin to wonder if FSD is on an exponential curve.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I would Not want charging and unloading at same time. Reason why you don’t see fuel pumps by loading docks. Forklift hit things all the time. Hitting 350v charging cable....not good. They will have truck chargers tucked away where no idiot can drive into them

I’d expect the charging cable for a Tesla Semi would be outputting closer to 800-1000v at ~500A

 

[SOULPEDL]

No! I can't afford to keep mine until we get back up a ways.

It will be curious to see how much Pepsi is really a part of this. Will they just be there with some signs and quick speech to take the "keys" from Elon at the end or will it really be partly a Pepsi event? I'm thinking the former. A Cybertruck wrapped in Pepsi logos might be cool but as Soul mentioned maybe they want a truly heavy load.

Why not a trailer full of pepsi and showing the Semi charging while it's being unloaded? Lots of press for Pepsi, showing the weight limit of the Semi, and showing people how the charging times are intended to be handled. Edit. It takes around 30 minutes so maybe pre-recorded or could be done in the background while Elon talks.

I see both sides of this debate re how much Pepsi takes the stage today.
Best option for Pepsi AND Tesla: Greasy Diesel Coke "Other Brands" Truck literally racing a New Tesla Semi Pepsi Truck.
Then roll out the vehicles.

BTW, love the Soul reference, that's a first

 

[Bouboule]

My tl;dr on last night's loooong Neuralink presentation.

Predicted six months before they hope to get FDA approval for human clinical trials.

Initial application will allow completely paralyzed individuals to communicate with thought. They have crude versions of this working now in monkeys, so this should be relatively easy to do in humans. They talked about two other applications, both of which will require a lot more research work.

One new one is vision restoration. They have already demonstrated being able to create bright flashes in a monkey's visual field of view in precise locations. From there to creating a real time crude grayscale representation of what a camera sees is a relatively small step from a theoretical perspective.

They showed how they can contract and elongate a pig's leg muscles through motor cortex stimulation. However fixing a spinal cord injury to allow movement has a fairly long way to go and will require new research and technologies. Doable, but longer term (for instance, now you are integrating into the spinal cord rather than the brain, and they just haven't started doing that yet).

Like all of Elon's companies, they are hardware rich during this R&D phase and have continually iterated every aspect of their technologies to enhance real world performance metrics like longevity, power usage, and safety for their implantable brain device. Their current brain implant is getting close to mass production capable. That thing is a technological marvel integrating bluetooth communications, ARM processor to decode spikes in real time, power managements, battery and wireless power recharging all connected to 1024 probes, soon 16K thin wire probes. All hermetically sealed operating in a hostile environment (inside the human body).

And mass production they will need. The first questions came from neuroscientists who were salivating over the possibilities of this hardware for neuroscience research. While Neuralink is necessarily currently focused on real world injury mitigation applications (for revenue reasons), many neuroscientists want to figure out how the thinking parts of the brain work. How do we reason? How do we lay down memories? Anyways, research labs across academia will each want to buy whatever v1.0 kit Neuralink produces.

That 1.0 kit will include a surgery robot for implantation, the actual brain implant, and all the software systems that interpret the raw neuron spike data.

I can't emphasize enough just how many different advanced technologies Neuralink has already produced and worked on. In addition if they were an academic institution, they would have produce thousands of academic papers by now.

Finally, Elon. Elon started this as a way of producing better human/computer symbionts for the inevitable AI/human meshing. As he pointed out, we are already symbionts because our phones are already an extension of ourselves, and they provide access to the digital/information/communication world.

But all that is in the far future. His company, composed of real world engineers, is busy creating down to earth technologies that allow for brain reading and brain writing to solve current low hanging fruit problems. It is very analogous to SpaceX which was formed to create a civilization on Mars, but 20 years on is still "just" the world leader in orbital lift. Elon won't see his ultimate SpaceX dream in his lifetime, nor will he see all the things Neuralink will do, But along the way, Neuralink will have a profound impact on brain science and medical technology while being a profitable medical technology corporation.

More so than when Elon presents about his other companies, you could tell that Elon was barely hanging on when talking about this advanced medical/biological technology. When he spoke, it would be visionary, and when his engineers/medical experts answered the question (he had like 20 on stage, each giving a part of the presentation and all answering questions), it was very technical and to the point. This isn't surprising - Neuralink is the most far afield from his knowledge base company he has started.

I really like your last paragraph. It highlights well why Elon working on multiple companies simultaneously is such a strong advantage. Yes it takes some time to work on all at the same time but it prevents him from having tunnel vision.
After the Neuralink presentation, its easy to wonder if the seed of Optimus was created out of Neuralink rather than Tesla.
If he was hyperfocused on Tesla we might not have some of the future cool products. @whatcantwitterbring

 

[Krugerrand]

There will be no single moment in time when FSD is realized. FSD will continue to improve incrementally for many years as Tesla teaches the system to handle more scenarios better.

I think the best way to look at FSD from an investor point of view is to study use cases. Right now, I see two things that FSD does today better than a human driver:

• Highway driving
• Driving in unfamiliar locations. The reason this is today better than a human alone is that you are freed from concentrating on navigation. You only need to babysit the system, which is easier than having to worry about both traffic and missing the next turn.

So what will be the next use case FSD is likely to solve? What will be the value of that use case?

Some candidates for the near future are:

• Driving better than a human in familiar locations*
• Actually Smart Summon (ASS)
• Reverse summon
• Hands free driving
• Transition from route to parking at home
• Geofenced robotaxi

* Note for the first one I said "better" and not "safer". I don't think many will buy FSD if it is only theoretically safer than a human. Everyone thinks he's an above-average driver. So until users perceive that FSD can drive just as smoothly, with minimal or zero oversight, this use case won't add much value to the stock.

So what other use cases are likely to be solved in the near future? I'm sure I missed some that are on the horizon.

I disagree. We may not be able to identify the exact moment when it happens, but then hindsight will catch it and we’ll wondering how we missed it.

I’m not disregarding your argument, I just don’t see it happening quite that way. Yes, of course Tesla will continue to improve from now until forever, but I believe there will be an exact moment when ‘it’s a done deal’ and it’s ‘over’. Most people, and I’m talking WS and governments and the average Joe won’t get it, but it’ll have already happened right under their noses.

Example: The very moment Model S won Motor Trends 2013 car of the year - unanimously, by a bunch of petrol heads - that’s the very moment EVs were a done deal. Yeah, yeah, a bunch of ups and downs since, but there was no doubt (for me) that was the moment it was over for ICE. We had to wait a few more years to be rewarded, but by golly we have been.

 

[wipster]

I'm sure the market will be semi interested...

I doubt we'll see much stock action until tomorrow since it's a 5 PM PST start. Wish it were at noon, hard to wait until 5:15...

 

[MP3Mike]

I would Not want charging and unloading at same time. Reason why you don’t see fuel pumps by loading docks. Forklift hit things all the time. Hitting 350v charging cable....not good. They will have truck chargers tucked away where no idiot can drive into them

It depends on the use. If it is an enclosed trailer backed up to a dock, I would have no problem with charging while loading/unloading. (Docks often have shore power hookup to refer trailers in situations like this, so it isn't uncommon to have power hooked while loading/unloading.)

If it is a flatbed trailer loaded/unloaded from the side, then I would be less inclined to charge at the same time.

 

[Tony73]

Prediction (delivery event): Tesla shows off the prototype of the robotaxi tonight.

Context: Tesla takes 2-3 years to get new products into production, so a 2024 addition of Robotaxi production puts it in line with a reveal tonight. Further, Boring Company has been stalling sales work with municipalities recently...and Franz kinda hinted at a new product.

Before every Tesla event, people speculate on what the “one more thing” will be despite the fact that most Tesla events feature no such thing.
My prediction: this event focuses solely on semi.

 

[larmor]

I doubt we'll see much stock action until tomorrow since it's a 5 PM PST start. Wish it were at noon, hard to wait until 5:15...

But the neuralink demonstration and deep dive into the fine details of neurosurgery, EEG, computer and AI post processing of signals, and even basic stuff of needle design optimized for use and production demonstrates that Elon's companies are far more than fluff. For those market participants who cannot see the level of attention to detail in Elon related/run companies, they will be missing out. I'm sure Pepsi/Frito Lays is not doing this purchase and delivery as a stunt, but as a true cost of savings.

 

[ElectricIAC]

“one more thing”

Columbo approved.

 

[Mike Smith]

I doubt we'll see much stock action until tomorrow since it's a 5 PM PST start. Wish it were at noon, hard to wait until 5:15...

We already know what's going to happen tomorrow: the media and analysts will say the event was a huge disappointment because Elon didn't address concerns about China demand.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Yeah only here is the thing . Half the weight is in the truck and trailer. They will haul 40 or so lbs

Here's another thing; a standard semi trailer has 3800 cubic feet and would weigh 240k pounds filled to the brim with water/Pepsi.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Here's another thing; a standard semi trailer has 3800 cubic feet and would weigh 240k pounds filled to the brim with water/Pepsi.

People forget water is heavy, about 1kg per liter.

 

[bkp_duke]

This is Tesla-related, but tangential. I'm putting it in this thread for highest visibility.

CharIN, the industry group that helps determine charging standards and is behind CCS, has come out with a public statement essentially throwing cold water on Tesla's NACS charging standard proposal.

More info here:

Standards war? Things heat up between Tesla and CharIN

Are we going to get a standards war in the EV space? I doubt it, but things are heating up between Tesla and CharIN.

electrek.co

I would encourage everyone here to write in to CharIN (you can use their contact form linked below) and encourage them to support the Tesla NCAS connector, based solely on it's technical merits.

Contact – CharIN

Empowering the next level of e-mobility by developing and establishing the Combined Charging System (CCS) as the global standard for charging battery powered electric vehicles.

www.charin.global

Feel free to use or adopt what I submitted below, or write your own.

CharIN,
I have just read your public statement regarding the Tesla NACS connector, and CharIN's desire to still support CCS. I have to say that as an EV owner, and someone that has extensively used all of these charging standards on multiple charging networks, I am very disappointed in your decision to continue backing CCS over NCAS. Tesla's NACS is a more efficient, higher-powered, lighter weight, easier to use, cheaper to produce and install for charging networks, and overall better customer experience than CCS has ever been. Customers should have the best connector, not the one whom might have the most backing from various automakers, etc. Tesla's connector in autos in North America has more deployed numbers of autos than all other vehicle makers, combined.

Please don't turn this into a VHS vs. BetaMax decision for customers, as the decision to back CCS will hurt not only customers, but non-Tesla EV brands as well. The number of deployed autos using CCS is currently small, and other auto brands are picking up usage of NCAS, this is the time to abolish the large, clunky, and inefficient CCS standard for something that has already gone through a decade of rigorous testing and real-world usage.

Sincerely,
[Insert your name here]

I understand this is a long-shot, given CharIN is the group behind CCS, but I think they should see pushback none-the-less.