Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Speedr117]

Tesla doesn't want to give all their secrets away too soon and it's a good bet it's not a friction clutch, but a positively locking one. One method that occurred to me was to use data from rotational sensors to perfectly synchronize the speed of the motor with that of the drive unit at the moment of engagement and only apply more than minimum torque once there was confirmation of engagement. A proper implementation could result in essentially zero wear, even on clutch capable of handling very high torques.

Disconnecting the motors removes the bearing friction of the motors from the equation (as well as any residual magnetic drag) while simultaneously allowing the most efficient motors to be used. My guess is one compelling factor was being able to maximize regenerative braking efficiency. Loaded trucks rely on their brakes much more often than passenger cars so optimizing regen efficiency would be key for driving in traffic and maximizing regen potential may have been necessary for descending mountain grades while fully loaded without use of friction brakes. The shape and timing of the magnetic fields of the motors designed to maximize regen efficiency will vary a bit from that of a motor designed to maximize efficiency of power delivery.

It makes good sense that tailoring different motors to excel at different tasks, and being able to uncouple them at will, is the kind of thinking that turns the impossible and impractical into tomorrow's trucking norm. The short-term thinking instigated by the corporate cost-cutting of the 1980's is what made this kind of innovation go away. We should all be thankful that the world has Elon and his teams who love to innovate better ways to do things. This is why I invest in TSLA. It's not our fault that the rest of the investment community doesn't understand what this means for future demand and profits.

Also hints at what's in store for Cybertruck! If they utilize the Semi's system for it (or something along these lines), then 500 miles definitely seems possible!

 

[WADan]

Sorry if this has been posted here before:

Why a Melbourne man quit job and sold his house to buy a Telsla — Daily Mail

The former Melbourne retail worker quit his job and sold his house before moving to the coast where he bought a block of land and a Telsa.

apple.news

Now this is living! But I am too old to do this!

 

[insaneoctane]

The chart in the Semi presentation showing battery level over the trip also had elevation shown.

View attachment 880516​

Did anyone else notice that from this graphic, the semi started at 97% and ended at 4%, so the 500mi trip was performed across significant and real world elevation changes (grapevine), at real world speeds using only 93% of the battery capacity?

I'll delete this if I find someone else points this out down thread...

 

[Captkerosene]

It's bizarre hearing the media still questioning whether customers will buy the Semi and Cybertruck. They're both sold out for years..

The program is not fishy.
Elon just chose to call what happened yesterday “start of production” when it obviously is not.
They are probably still a year out.

Weighing 5k more than a diesel is not necessarily a dealbreaker at the right price.

It begs the question, if you were going to build the real production line and start mass producing the Semi, why go the trouble of "starting production" in Reno at such small numbers? Can't be profitable. Did they do that with the other vehicles? No.

I think the Semi is a great product. We just aren't ready to commit to producing it at scale ... that's not necessarily a bad thing. It just means we have better places to deploy our limited resources.

 

[Knightshade]

Btw......just to point it out, Troy already trying to lay the ground work for his "pivot" where he dramatically raises his delivery estimate in the final couple of weeks of the quarter.

Given that's the opposite of what he's done most quarters going back years (normally he's HIGHER at the start and lower at the end of each quarter) that would, indeed, be a pivot.

 

[insaneoctane]

Down 2.3% so far in pre-market.

The market clearly no longer cares about things like revolutionary products, income, and growth. It's a complete joke.

Totally agree. This is a tough time in the simulation....

 

[InDaClub]

Have to be honest although the Semi impresses a great deal. It is awesome. Last nights presentation was a yawner. I am glad I didnt actually watch it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Max Pain currently @187.5 FYI.

The goal by MM's isn't max pain. It's to get the share price just under 195 to avoid paying out the 195 Calls.

I'll call it right now, ending the day at 192.50.

 

[mongo]

It begs the question, if you were going to build the real production line and start mass producing the Semi, why go the trouble of "starting production" in Reno at such small numbers? Can't be profitable. Did they do that with the other vehicles? No.

I think the Semi is a great product. We just aren't ready to commit to producing it at scale ... that's not necessarily a bad thing. It just means we have better places to deploy our limited resources.

1. Austin isn't ready for Semi, yet
2. Parts for semi are made in GF1, minimal shipping, tight feedback loop, local technical resources
3. Semi production is more kit assembly versus dedicated stamping/ paint lines
4. Ramping with lower overhead is better than ramping on a full cost, high production capacity, site
5. Look to Megapack's manufacturing location progression or Kato Rd and 4680s

 

[insaneoctane]

Imagine a driver at a truck stop finishing a meal, sees it is raining, and uses smart summon on his / her loaded semi.

Yep...

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Musk has said mass production of semi will be in TX

The only reference I could find to that statement was back in 2020:

Tesla Semi: the electric semi truck is going to be built in Texas

Elon Musk has confirmed Tesla’s plan to build its electric semi truck, the Tesla Semi, at its upcoming new factory...

electrek.co

"We’re going to be doing a major factory there. And it’s also where we will be doing Cybertruck there, the Tesla semi program, and we will be doing Model 3 and Y for the eastern half of North America."

Plans could've changed since then, since the pictures of the new building in Sparks that were rumored to be for the semi came out in 2021 (a whole year later):

Report: Tesla Semi Entered Limited Production In Nevada

The long awaited Tesla Semi has entered a limited production stage at the Tesla Giga Nevada site, according to a new unofficial report.

insideevs.com

If we know anything about Tesla, it's that they follow the "break things and fix quickly" mantra - meaning they WILL change plans if needed. So current info should always supercede past info.

 

[Curt Renz]

Have to be honest although the Semi impresses a great deal. It is awesome. Last nights presentation was a yawner...

Here's a condensed version hitting the key points in under 9 minutes.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

1.7kwh per mile under what conditions ?
Everything here is speculation until Tesla officially releases a spec sheet

1.7kwh data point came from Elon's tweet last night about the 500-mile fully loaded trip that they video recorded. Although there's still room for rounding (could be as high as 1.74kwh/mi), that is as good of a source as any spec sheet.

 

[StapleGun]

100% growth for their EV's when you're starting base is so low is pretty damn pathetic.

Just wait until GM releases their Q4 EV growth numbers!

 

[Gigapress]

Wherever it is we can at least agree that Tesla does not yet have a production facility to produce semi at scale

Did you miss the first sentence of the presentation last night?

Alright, welcome to Sparks, Nevada, site of the Tesla Gigafactory and our Tesla Semi truck factory as well. … I think you’ve had a chance to tour the production line. So, cool, great.

 

[SmokyPeat]

The goal by MM's isn't max pain. It's to get the share price just under 195 to avoid paying out the 195 Calls.

I'll call it right now, ending the day at 192.50.

At least it's slightly outperforming the beta, right? Not what I was expecting after last nights presentation, but could be worse.

 

[insaneoctane]

It's those uphill and downhill sections where an EV semi truck really shines. Where the chart shows dents in state-of-charge, a Diesel semi instead

• consumes additional fuel that it can't recuperate
• has to gear down, further reducing efficiency
• slows down on the way up
• is equally slow on the way down to avoid that brakes overheat

The EV's speed advantage in hilly terrain can be either converted to reduced speed on the plains for more range at same average speed or higher overall average speed compared to old-school ICE (less driver wage and other benefits).

Performance-wise, EVs shine here, but don't ignore the huge difference in energy density between batteries and diesel fuel and the range implications. A typical long range diesel semi has 150 gallon tank. 1 gallon of diesel is approximately 40 kWh of energy storage. So, the diesel semi is equipped with the equivalent of 6,000 kWh battery storage which allows them to be far less efficient, not need regen down hills, and still have long range. That said, the Tesla Semi is a marvel of efficiency and any job it does within the range of its battery will be significantly cheaper per mile than its ICEV counterpart.

 

[Curt Renz]

The goal by MM's isn't max pain. It's to get the share price just under 195 to avoid paying out the 195 Calls.

I'll call it right now, ending the day at 192.50.

Agreed. Max Pain is based on yesterday's closing options open interest, and none of today's trading. Today's trading volume does suggest option writers' avoidance of $195 share price or above at the closing to shut out those call buyers. Perhaps more importantly, they may want to get TSLA to close at or above $192.5 to shut out put buyers at that price.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

At least it's slightly outperforming the beta, right? Not what I was expecting after last nights presentation, but could be worse.

After the past 2 months, TSLA just matching it's beta on down days is considered amazing.

I do think we get a comment from CPCA official over the weekend with November's wholesale numbers which will be a positive catalyst for the stock on Monday

 

[hobbes]

From my newsfeed:
A spokeswoman for the food and beverage company said its Frito-Lay unit would take delivery of 15 trucks and have them in place at a Modesto, Calif. plant by the end of the year.

However, this doesn’t match the number in the headline

View attachment 880626

They have taken delivery of 5 at the event, and will get another 10 (15 total) by year end. Not a contradiction IMHO