They would just find some other excuse.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
JusRelax
Active Member
Looks like Leo's had a good night's rest and supports Elon again. Oh, and anybody know where I can get my own KQID Time Engine?
"I have decided: Peace Peace to Elon Musk, BOD and all SH of Tesla I will deploy my KQID time engine to produce abundant cash immediately to buy more Tesla shares. Tesla is so cheap, I buy buy buy Tesla Tesla Tesla Peace to all Peace to the world"
"I have decided: Peace Peace to Elon Musk, BOD and all SH of Tesla I will deploy my KQID time engine to produce abundant cash immediately to buy more Tesla shares. Tesla is so cheap, I buy buy buy Tesla Tesla Tesla Peace to all Peace to the world"
cliff harris
Member
I'm really tired of this assumption that people on the liberal left are making regarding elo'ns tweets. They are saying he is 'behaving badly' and 'attacking his customers'. They were 100% FINE with Elon when he was agreeing with their politics, because that makes him 'correct', but the moment he disagrees, he is somehow attacking them. Where they concerned that in voting democrat in the past he was 'attacking' potential conservative/right wing tesla customers?
For crying out loud there was VERY recently a mid term election. The USA is clearly VERY divided. Its not like the country is 95% left/liberal and Elon has picked a tiny minority view...
..anyway.... back to the share price.
Something that took me a long time to understand is this:
The current stock price is NOT the value of the stock. Its the mid point of buyers and sellers who are happy to buy/sell TODAY. That may be a very,m very small sliver of the total stock holding. Teslas daily volume, as a percentage of total stock, is not massive.
I think my Tesla shares are worth $300-400 each. If you want to buy mine, its going to cost you that, at least.
The fact that some people (with weak conviction) will sell some today at $150, to other who will buy at $150 does not change my view. There are a LOT of people like me (and people like ellison & ron baron etc who have even higher goals I'm sure).
So we are witnessing a lot of very confused people who are trading this stock at the moment at a very low valuation. Thats cute, but it has no impact on people like me, who are long term investors, very happy to keep their shares through all this, and come out smiling super broadly when reality catches up the financials.
If it takes me 5 years to get a fair price for my TSLA, I'll happily wait. You should do the same. Do NOT trade options, do NOT use margin. Just buy stocks, and then read a book.
For crying out loud there was VERY recently a mid term election. The USA is clearly VERY divided. Its not like the country is 95% left/liberal and Elon has picked a tiny minority view...
..anyway.... back to the share price.
Something that took me a long time to understand is this:
The current stock price is NOT the value of the stock. Its the mid point of buyers and sellers who are happy to buy/sell TODAY. That may be a very,m very small sliver of the total stock holding. Teslas daily volume, as a percentage of total stock, is not massive.
I think my Tesla shares are worth $300-400 each. If you want to buy mine, its going to cost you that, at least.
The fact that some people (with weak conviction) will sell some today at $150, to other who will buy at $150 does not change my view. There are a LOT of people like me (and people like ellison & ron baron etc who have even higher goals I'm sure).
So we are witnessing a lot of very confused people who are trading this stock at the moment at a very low valuation. Thats cute, but it has no impact on people like me, who are long term investors, very happy to keep their shares through all this, and come out smiling super broadly when reality catches up the financials.
If it takes me 5 years to get a fair price for my TSLA, I'll happily wait. You should do the same. Do NOT trade options, do NOT use margin. Just buy stocks, and then read a book.
Many people don't know the Tesla is the best product.
Every automakers chooses its marketing channels to find customers, often ads. Tesla did not, relying heavily, among other things, on Elon himself and his Twitter account.
In the last few weeks, Elon has polarized his own image politically.
Your second sentence is why this is a problem - or at least many of us perceive it is.
PS: before anyone ask me if I sold, I bought new shares yesterday, gambling on the fact that Tesla still will manage to solve these issues and continue to do what they do best.
Man I have to get me one of them there "KGID" time machines....Walmart maybe?
JusRelax
Active Member
They are shooting for 5*2 weekday + 2*3 weekend shifts = 10 + 6 = 16 shifts. Their goal is 300 cars per shift, so 16*300 = 4800 cars per week, or 9600 cars for 2 weeks.
Leo assumed Elon was selling the 2 last days because the stock price dropped hard while yesterday the rest of the market closed green. He said the board had fiduciary response to do what’s best for investors so they should have arranged a stock buyback of Elon shares to prevent these unorganic share drops. He bought million of shares in the 400/350/300. He must be down -50% on billions. I am impressed a good night sleep can turn a portfolio around
Leo is now the greatest single diamond hand shareholder on the planet.
Just a few random (sometimes incoherent) thoughts:
- A lot of mass hysteria going on currently. "Oooh, my neigbor or collegue says Elon said something bad. I don't know what exactly but it must be bad then."
- MSM are amplifying this by only writing or reporting negatively about Elon and Tesla, when there are also plenty of positive things to report. Why? Prejudice, financial interests, click bait, ignorance, who knows.
- I hear and read everything Elon does - directly from the source - and still fail to see what exactly the problem is, other than that he's moved to the right side of the center instead of the left side. But best not to talk about that in this thread, I'll be happy to discuss it in the Twitter thread.
- Demand destruction? Maybe among those on the left (yes, they are overrepresented among current Tesla owners). But how many of those really decide not to buy a Tesla anymore? And not just yesterday or today, but in a few months or a few years. At the same time many on the right side of the aisle will view him and Tesla more positively. In Europe the impact is much lower - we don't have the political schism. In China (biggest market) there seems to be no impact at all.
- They say there's no such thing as bad publicity. I don't think that's entirely true, but if anyone in the world did not yet know Elon or Tesla, they will know now. He's gaining 100,000 followers every day! More people will get to know the cars, and this will result in extra buyers. Fact.
- Economic headwinds: these are real, especially in Europe. High energy prices are hurting the financial budgets of many families and electricity is so expensive that it's no longer more economical to drive an EV than petrol/diesel. VW just said they are seeing lower EV-orders because of this. It could also hurt Tesla's sales in Europe, although the extra shift in Berlin seems to indicate that they are still seeing strong demand. These high electricity prices may last for 1-2 years. China is a bit of a black box, but I expect continued strong demand there. The EV credit will not go away after 31 December, but be halved (at least, that's what I read). US: I expect the IRA tax discount to cause extra demand in 2023, compensating for any 'demand destruction'. Q1 will see delivery of postponed orders.
- Tesla still has many demand levers it can pull: more colors (see Europe), lower prices (not necessarily detrimental to the profit margin if the output of the new Gigafactories keeps growing), FSD discounts, if necessary even - sorry for using the word - advertising.
- Cybertruck, Semi, smaller Tesla, Megapack: the demand will be huuuuuge.
In short, we will be fine.
- A lot of mass hysteria going on currently. "Oooh, my neigbor or collegue says Elon said something bad. I don't know what exactly but it must be bad then."
- MSM are amplifying this by only writing or reporting negatively about Elon and Tesla, when there are also plenty of positive things to report. Why? Prejudice, financial interests, click bait, ignorance, who knows.
- I hear and read everything Elon does - directly from the source - and still fail to see what exactly the problem is, other than that he's moved to the right side of the center instead of the left side. But best not to talk about that in this thread, I'll be happy to discuss it in the Twitter thread.
- Demand destruction? Maybe among those on the left (yes, they are overrepresented among current Tesla owners). But how many of those really decide not to buy a Tesla anymore? And not just yesterday or today, but in a few months or a few years. At the same time many on the right side of the aisle will view him and Tesla more positively. In Europe the impact is much lower - we don't have the political schism. In China (biggest market) there seems to be no impact at all.
- They say there's no such thing as bad publicity. I don't think that's entirely true, but if anyone in the world did not yet know Elon or Tesla, they will know now. He's gaining 100,000 followers every day! More people will get to know the cars, and this will result in extra buyers. Fact.
- Economic headwinds: these are real, especially in Europe. High energy prices are hurting the financial budgets of many families and electricity is so expensive that it's no longer more economical to drive an EV than petrol/diesel. VW just said they are seeing lower EV-orders because of this. It could also hurt Tesla's sales in Europe, although the extra shift in Berlin seems to indicate that they are still seeing strong demand. These high electricity prices may last for 1-2 years. China is a bit of a black box, but I expect continued strong demand there. The EV credit will not go away after 31 December, but be halved (at least, that's what I read). US: I expect the IRA tax discount to cause extra demand in 2023, compensating for any 'demand destruction'. Q1 will see delivery of postponed orders.
- Tesla still has many demand levers it can pull: more colors (see Europe), lower prices (not necessarily detrimental to the profit margin if the output of the new Gigafactories keeps growing), FSD discounts, if necessary even - sorry for using the word - advertising.
- Cybertruck, Semi, smaller Tesla, Megapack: the demand will be huuuuuge.
In short, we will be fine.
Not sure if serious... You need to look no further than the last quarterly call to see when he did exactly that.
Yes but they happened 1-2 days s apart
… here it’s like on same trading day during market hours
stef
Member
Oh… so Shanghai is really slowing down this time!?!? /sLocal production =no ships in transit
Some posts have been suspended while I determine their fate.
====TWITTER DISCUSSION IS NOT FOR THIS THREAD=======
Devoting half - or more - of a post in violation of the above, and then making comments about TSLA, does not justify a post being in this thread. The posts to which I refer likely are gone for good.
====TWITTER DISCUSSION IS NOT FOR THIS THREAD=======
Devoting half - or more - of a post in violation of the above, and then making comments about TSLA, does not justify a post being in this thread. The posts to which I refer likely are gone for good.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
If you need to shutdown there will aways be upgrades. In all my years in manufacturing we always took advantage of any shutdown to do improvements we could not do while the line was running even if they were minor. There's always something that can be improved.
One thing I will say about this "rumor" is it will be very clear in late Dec./early January whether the shutdown happened. The reporting of Tesla China manufacturing is more transparent than anywhere in the Tesla world. Like some others have said, the credibility Reuter's and others will be very clear come early January.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
That 2nd guy has never ridden in, much less driven, a Tesla. Guarantee it.
Yes. The big takeaway is that we are in a bear market right now. If someone wants to have great investments, they should BUY GREAT COMPANIES IN BEAR MARKETS and SELL GREAT COMPANIES IN BULL MARKETS. So while in a bear market, you should only track the share price if looking to buy more.
There are two parts to an investment, buying an entry position, and selling the exit
In a bear market, you might only get a PE of 20 for a fast growing very profitable company as actually people prefer stable old slow growing companies for safety. But in a bull market, you will get a PE of 100 or more for the same company, so if Tesla had the same fundamentals now but 18m ago the share price would be five times higher right now, so $800 instead of $160.
So in conclusion, only invest in time frames that allow you to wait for the next mature bull market to sell. And ideally buy towards the bottom of a bear market. i.e. do exactly the opposite of what most people do!
Now, don't worry if you bought at the peak of the last bull market, you will simply have to be more patient and wait for the peak of the next bull market to sell. Simple really, if you have an entry position in a bear market then, wait, set up alerts for exit prices, and then sell.
If the fundamentals of a company change in the meantime, then that could force an early exit, or another entry position event, but this is muddying the waters, and is psychologically challenging
replying to self : and the rest of the HODLers on TMC:
another key difference between now and 2017-2020 FUD is there are many You tubers who are creating FUD... possibly unwittingly ...
- questioning Elons every move
- speculating about demand
- speculating about buybacks
- speculating about succession plan
- ignoring facts for the most part
- perpetuating the Twitter FUD
in 2017-2020 I only had to refute the MSM FUD, now we have so called TSLA Investors very vocally on You Tube spreading the FUD also
Many of these You tubers were a light in the darkness a few years ago , however ; many have become the full on FUDsters themselves
All of the gossip, is just that, neighbours gossiping over the garden fence.
The reality doesnt change, but people can entertain themselves along the way, and if some people would rather occupy their mind with more important things, then they should choose to ignore
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