Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

Some time ago, I got a bit jealous of the success stories in a certain other thread. How hard could it be to devise a trading strategy (preferably via options because leverage!) that would beat HODL? So I downloaded the historical TSLA stock data from Yahoo and started programming. I backtested every trading strategy I could think of. It turned out that some strategies were hugely profitable … if I excluded some periods from the history. Without excluding certain periods, it was very difficult to beat HODL.
I should have known this, because I had read The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto): Taleb, Nassim Nicholas: 9781400063512: Amazon.com: Books
I still do some option trades, but it’s more out of curiosity to see if I can beat HODL by using my intuition or by taking advantage of the knowledge presented here.
My point is that every trading strategy, either by mathematical wizardry or chart reading skills or chicken gut examination may be successful until it isn’t.

You assumed that Im not a HODLer. Whats with people and their assumptions?

I made money in a bull market and I made money in a bear market. You let me worry about when it stops working.

“Everybody can drive accident-free until they get into an accident.”

“Everyone lives until they dies.”

Lets just stop driving and drop dead now. What a waste of pixels.

 

[bkp_duke]

Wtf is this? How are the job number revision so dramatically different? This is a 2 decimal screw up that led to a very hawkish fed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604108866496913408

And yet some here kept arguing with me during that time when I said the job market was getting a LOT more relaxed, even for tech. I was able to get many more job applicants that I expected, and got my pick of the litter on talent. Something that they said was impossible.

Expect more revisions for Q3, and don't be surprised if they are changed from job GAINS to LOSSES.

 

[EVMeister]

You assumed that Im not a HODLer. Whats with people and their assumptions?

I made money in a bull market and I made money in a bear market. You let me worry about when it stops working.

“Everybody can drive accident-free until they get into an accident.”

“Everyone lives until they dies.”

Lets just stop driving and drop dead now. What a waste of pixels.

Can I just say that somebody who doesn't do anything other than HODL and very occasionally buy and sell a small number of 'play shares', I find the Options Thread (and your contributions in it) both fascinating and informative. I've always hated the "us vs. them" mentality and divides that exist on this forum between HODLers and those who use various trading strategies. We're on the same side here, supporting the same company.

 

[elasalle]

And yet some here kept arguing with me during that time when I said the job market was getting a LOT more relaxed, even for tech. I was able to get many more job applicants that I expected, and got my pick of the litter on talent. Something that they said was impossible.

Expect more revisions for Q3, and don't be surprised if they are changed from job GAINS to LOSSES.

How come such a blatant mistake - & do these numbers impact the next FED decisions?

 

[bkp_duke]

How come such a blatant mistake - & do these numbers impact the next FED decisions?

The Fed data relies upon companies like ADP (payroll processors) to push this data to them. They give the Fed what they have, but it is an incomplete picture. I believe the "crown jewel" for data in this space is unemployment reports by states (i.e. how many people claimed for benefits), as well as some surveys.

Usually things are off a bit, but this is a seriously large error, one that we can only hope that the Fed is paying attention to and adjusts their pivot for sooner.

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't know if that is helpful with two weeks to go. Our locally delivery center is always bursting at the seems the last two weeks of EVERY quarter, and somehow they are always completely empty come the 1st.

Staging.

 

[Krugerrand]

Thank you. I’ll use this every time someone says something negative about anything.

You do know that the significant reason Tesla (and SpaceX) exist is because Elon practices the top half of that ladder.

Your response is in fact typical of every single person who lives by the bottom half of the ladder.

You can either take time and reflect on YOUR behavior and make positive change or not. It goes back to the many times I’ve mentioned that trying on a different perspective can show you a whole different world.

 

[Krugerrand]

what is the best maker to to track whether TESLA has car demand problem ?

Troy’s art.

 

[JustMe]

Such a simple solution.
I suspect Elon has much more knowledge than us though, so we see his “solution” as flawed.
On the diagram read “we” not “you”
View attachment 886043

Sometimes very knowledgeable people are wrong.

 

[BornToFly]

Staging.

My point is you can't tell anything about demand until you see how many cars are in the lot AFTER the quarter ends. Even then, with the IRA starting Jan1, this quarter could be an anomaly, with "demand" suddenly returning Jan 1st after all the care-bears write their "no demand" stories.

 

[Krugerrand]

Usually things are off a bit, but this is a seriously large error, one that we can only hope that the Fed is paying attention to and adjusts their pivot for sooner.

Tweet the living crap out of it. Somebody with an account. @ZeApelido

 

[elasalle]

are car businesses like Hertz, Uber better off getting the tesla discounts now, or even they can benefit more next year? (3.7K $ + ~ 1K charging savings) - could throw in some maintenance etc as well ....

Personal, If you are in higher tax bracket, then you get discounts now but will not get one next year. (So let your rich amigos know this)

 

[JRP3]

You do know that the significant reason Tesla (and SpaceX) exist is because Elon practices the top half of that ladder.

Your response is in fact typical of every single person who lives by the bottom half of the ladder.

You can either take time and reflect on YOUR behavior and make positive change or not. It goes back to the many times I’ve mentioned that trying on a different perspective can show you a whole different world.

Here's a different perspective YOU can try:

"Sometimes, I’m just plain wrong!" -Elon Musk

Elon Musk Admits To Tesla Team, 'Sometimes, I'm Just Plain Wrong'

You may have seen reports about Tesla's Musk telling managers to comply or resign, but those headlines are out of context. Let's take a look at the email.

insideevs.com

 

[traxila]

How come such a blatant mistake - & do these numbers impact the next FED decisions?

I don’t think so. Don’t understand how exactly this plays into unemployment rate numbers.

They will talk about the real time data they are seeing in service inflation, labor market tightness and wage gain growth until they bust.

From their perspective, picking up the pieces should be easy with a proven strategy: cut interest rates and flood markets with money through QE.

Problem is that I have a hard time remembering when they were truly correct in their assessments.

 

[bkp_duke]

are car businesses like Hertz, Uber better off getting the tesla discounts now, or even they can benefit more next year? (3.7K $ + ~ 1K charging savings) - could throw in some maintenance etc as well ....

Personal, If you are in higher tax bracket, then you get discounts now but will not get one next year.

I don't buy the "demand problem" even in the USA.

When watching cars on trackers like ev-cpo.com and tesla-info.com, if you pay attention you see the cars on there are moving, and in a few days. The CPOs have dropped in price some, and IMHO are great values (most include FSD), but regardless they cars get snapped up.

When I see cars on those sites sitting for 3-4 weeks, I'll get worried. Right now, the only cars sitting still for even 2 weeks are the CPO cars that have a history of being in a prior accident.

 

[traxila]

Tweet the living crap out of it. Somebody with an account. @ZeApelido

Already happening.

 

[Zero CO2]

Every employee is getting hammered by the low stock price. The harm is huge, if the compensation plan is to make up for low wages with stock then the stock needs to hold value or appreciate. Mark my words this is ruining some Tesla employees.

what companies employees are happy right now with their employee based stock compensation... I would argue not many ... so still best spot to work is Tesla

 

[elasalle]

I don't buy the "demand problem" even in the USA.

When watching cars on trackers like ev-cpo.com and tesla-info.com, if you pay attention you see the cars on there are moving, and in a few days. The CPOs have dropped in price some, and IMHO are great values (most include FSD), but regardless they cars get snapped up.

When I see cars on those sites sitting for 3-4 weeks, I'll get worried. Right now, the only cars sitting still for even 2 weeks are the CPO cars that have a history of being in a prior accident.

not demand problem for sure, but the less inventory EOQ, the better.

just one data point. when I visited Tyco center last week there were super busy. Also folks taking deliveries look like normal, price conscious folks(like me) Point being, we can't view M3/Y as super luxury cars, but more common sense cars.

 

[Queeg500]

Here's a different perspective YOU can try:

"Sometimes, I’m just plain wrong!" -Elon Musk

Elon Musk Admits To Tesla Team, 'Sometimes, I'm Just Plain Wrong'

You may have seen reports about Tesla's Musk telling managers to comply or resign, but those headlines are out of context. Let's take a look at the email.

insideevs.com

The ladder helps us react to a situation, whether the situation be right or wrong. Right or wrong doesn’t matter.

 

[elasalle]

The ladder helps us react to a situation, whether the situation be right or wrong. Right or wrong doesn’t matter.
View attachment 886078

this has been posted 3-4 times in < 24 hrs, I feel like a victim of the ladder now
Personally I have already acknowledged, thinking of best solutions (portfolio shuffling, margin mgmt)... but I can't embrace the reason for the dip.

maybe time to add to "Posts of merit" .. cheers!!