Wow, ok.
I guess since next year's sales growth in the USA being good or not so good
all depends on the amount of Twitter political controversy, then that means none of the following factors will matter:
- The rate of production growth at Giga Texas
- Possibility of lowering prices by several thousands of dollars if needed, especially on Model Y from which almost all the growth will come, due to:
- Model Y demand being so high right now that the minimum price in the US is still $66k, which means that if we assume conservatively a $42k average cost of goods then gross profit per Y ordered today is $24k+ (depending on the variant)
- Subsidies of about $3k per vehicle for batteries
- Breathtakingly low manufacturing cost at Giga Texas once in high-volume production
- Lower finished-vehicle shipping costs due to using Tesla Semi and also not shipping every Y from the West Coast
- Inflationary cost pressures expected to recede substantially in 2023, according to guidance from Elon and Zach on the Q3 call
- Perpetual pace of improvement, especially on manufacturing cost reduction and simplification, that is unmatched by anyone in the industry as conclusively shown by Munro teardown demos
- Incoming $7500 tax credits for most Model Y buyers, and Model 3 too if cells for the RWD begin to be sourced from N America or if prices for the 3P or 3LR are reduced to $55k or less
- The possibility of adding Model 3 Long Range and Model Y Rear-Wheel Drive back onto the menu, or S/X with a single motor, less than 100 kWh of battery, and less propulsive power than a Lamborghini Huracan
- The possibility of charging less than 105 THOUSAND FREAKING DOLLARS MINIMUM for S&X
- Exponentially growing general demand for EVs
- Las Vegas Loop, including expansion out from Resorts World to some other locations on the Strip, giving hundreds of thousands of people positive first impressions of riding in Teslas, with drivers who are very well-practiced at answering FAQs about the cars and correcting common misconceptions
- The massive Cybertruck backlog implying almost guaranteed demand for anything Giga Texas could reasonably manage to produce between now and 2024
- The massive free marketing that the mere presence of Cybertrucks in the hands of customers will generate as the most unique, flamboyant, instantly recognizable, and badass vehicle on the roads
- Another ~300 Supercharger stations and ~3,000 Supercharger stalls being constructed in America
- The possibility of switching which paint colors are standard and which cost extra in order to appeal to customers who would prefer something other than white or silver without a $1k+ upcharge
- FSD becoming increasingly practical and comfortable to use for most American customers who do most of their driving outside of complicated urban areas
@Troy can you confirm if this is what you are saying or am I misunderstanding? Twitter controversy will be more influential in 2023 than all of this combined? Can you provide evidence for this claim that's more scientific than a few anecdotes that you and a CNET author found about people cancelling orders?
