Some historical charts on deliveries:
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I personally have no doubt Tesla will move all the vehicles but fully expect more price cuts (or the equivalent) to move them in 2023 -- the Fed is not taking their foot off the brake until prices come down, and a wise man once advised against fighting the Fed.
The discounts in Q4 here were just the first phase, more will be required to unlock new layers of demand as interest rates continue up and then the Fed holds -- we need more production, more cost efficiencies, and lower prices for consumers.
The discounts in Q4 here were just the first phase, more will be required to unlock new layers of demand as interest rates continue up and then the Fed holds -- we need more production, more cost efficiencies, and lower prices for consumers.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
"Generation 3" is the phrase used to refer to the "$25K car compact car" first discussed at the June 2018 AGM. The term also now includes variants based on the same chassis, likely a small SUV, perhaps a tradesvan van, or a robotaxi.
It's likely to be the 1st car produced at the new Mexico plant, and I'm sure that China and Europe will have their own production plants too for this next series of Tesla mass market cars.
The goal is clear, twice the volume, half the price. Toyota Corolla, be warned.
Cheers!
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Why do you say “Slight” ramp at Austin and Berlin? We’re at 2,000 - 3,000 cars per
I seriously doubt we’ll see more than 20,000 Cybertrucks in 2023.
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Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
These are extremely good numbers:
- production on track for 50 % growth YoY on average
- unwinding the quarter end rush is good for cost management, people management and customers
- less than 2 weeks between end of production and hand-over to customer is extremely short
- impact on profit is minimal because COGM is (almost) neutral to the bottom line (active swap)
- ALL cars produced will be SOLD and profits recognized within days from today
- the general public is not aware of the energy side of the business which might surprise to the positive come 1/25
Personally I am optimistic for the last quarter financial statement. Staying very long.
PS And don't forget, Elon and team have multiple things up their sleeves which will soon be revealed
- production on track for 50 % growth YoY on average
- unwinding the quarter end rush is good for cost management, people management and customers
- less than 2 weeks between end of production and hand-over to customer is extremely short
- impact on profit is minimal because COGM is (almost) neutral to the bottom line (active swap)
- ALL cars produced will be SOLD and profits recognized within days from today
- the general public is not aware of the energy side of the business which might surprise to the positive come 1/25
Personally I am optimistic for the last quarter financial statement. Staying very long.
PS And don't forget, Elon and team have multiple things up their sleeves which will soon be revealed
Ok… then Cybertruck is on it’s own roadmap or the Gen 3 vehicle is to be a cousin to it.
Makes a lot of sense in a way.
Discussion of the next gen vehicle would be fantastic news. Particularly paired with talking about the next generation Gigafactory.
verystandard
Member
Especially Corolla nowadays selling upwards of $25k, that's not the corolla I'm expecting 10 years ago
Seems to me if Austin and Berlin go from 3000/week to 5000/week in the near term (as I understood their 2022 goal to be), this would add ~208K of production to the year. So even if Fremont and Shanghai maintains current production, that would still get them to just under 2M in 2023 (hitting the 50%) without CT or Semi numbers.
Drumheller
Active Member
Prices of vehicles will get reduced. Don't be surprised by it, Elon said it in 2022 that current vehicle prices were, "embarrassingly high"
Prices were raised significantly over the past 2 years due to rising inflation in the supply chain and increasing order backlogs. Tesla had to further raise prices to estimate where supply prices would be at the point a vehicle was being made for someone on a wait list.
Supply chain prices are falling now in some areas. Wait lists are shrinking due to increased production rate, higher interest rates, and a cooling economy.
Regardless of the perception of Q4 numbers, it was always likely, and probably planned, that vehicle prices would reduce in the future.
I also agree with Elon that it would be better to shrink margins and keep increasing production and sales. Don't take his hypotheticals as literal. Elon runs min/max scenarios in his head to analyze situations. It doesn't mean reality will hit either extreme. Many analytical people, and gamers, think this way. It's helpful for assessing potential and risk, and having alternative plans to achieve goals.
Prices were raised significantly over the past 2 years due to rising inflation in the supply chain and increasing order backlogs. Tesla had to further raise prices to estimate where supply prices would be at the point a vehicle was being made for someone on a wait list.
Supply chain prices are falling now in some areas. Wait lists are shrinking due to increased production rate, higher interest rates, and a cooling economy.
Regardless of the perception of Q4 numbers, it was always likely, and probably planned, that vehicle prices would reduce in the future.
I also agree with Elon that it would be better to shrink margins and keep increasing production and sales. Don't take his hypotheticals as literal. Elon runs min/max scenarios in his head to analyze situations. It doesn't mean reality will hit either extreme. Many analytical people, and gamers, think this way. It's helpful for assessing potential and risk, and having alternative plans to achieve goals.
Q4 earnings call is a giant tinderbox right now. It’s very likely to cause either a huge run up or deepen and extend the trough a bit.
At least these numbers are out already so more focus will be on other aspects of the business and expectations for 2023.
ThisStockGood
Still cruising my Model S 70 2015
I was a little depressed by the delivery number, but then I got outside and saw the Model X Plaid in downtown Copenhagen for the first time.
Now I'm alright again. Everything is gonna be fine.
(not a poem)
Now I'm alright again. Everything is gonna be fine.
(not a poem)
At a ASP of $57k, 2M cars = $114B in automotive revenue alone.
Using a P/S ratio for just automotive at eoy 2023 and if the market valuation doesn't change... $386B / $114B = 3.38x
...TSLA is currently trading at a P/S of 5.68x
Using a P/S ratio for just automotive at eoy 2023 and if the market valuation doesn't change... $386B / $114B = 3.38x
...TSLA is currently trading at a P/S of 5.68x
The nice thing about 2022 prices being so high is it got Tesla over the hump at Giga Texas. At this point, the COGS on Texas made cars should be declining every quarter as units produced continues to climb.
Maybe 2023 will be the year we finally start to see the big payouts from battery day materialize.
Yep, I think we'll see margins come down in 2023 in order to keep deliveries up. Good for the company and moving cars, bad for the bottom line and for TSLA.
Agreed. Headlines seem pretty positive overall."Tesla reports 1.31 million deliveries in 2022, growth of 40% over last year"
CNBC headline from just now. Article actually pretty much just telling it how it is. A bit surprising they didn't stick the knife in and twist it. I'm somewhat impressed.
You can go find the link yourself. You're welcome!
edit; Ninja'd by @traxila
I think all the "negative" sentiment was already baked into the current SP. Feel like we are ready for a decent run all things considered.
I mean... If we take your name literally, that definitely makes sense.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Wowsers, $27K U.S. for a Corolla?! At that price, it had better come with a chauffer... oh, wait.
Austin and Berlin have already hit 3k per week or 12k per month run rate per various reports. The name plate capacity is probably closer to a combined 400k per year at this point. For these 2 factories.
Between the revamped Shanghai and Fremont we are probably close to 1.4 million in capacity for s3xy lines, which adds up to 1.8 million representing a 40% delivery growth in 2023. The bigger issue with this is, the production is concentrated in Shanghai, and the demand is elsewhere. So not the most sustainable setup.
I do think that with minimal additional capex relative to 2022, Tesla can get an average capability of 2 million units for 2023, and deliver 1.8 million. This does assume Shanghai staying slightly underutilized, with Austin, Berlin ramping harder. That is, unless Tesla China pulls some rabbits out of their hat and finds a way to deliver more.
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I would like to understand one point. Regarding the cars in transit, have they been ordered? That is, can we assume that a sale is imminent upon delivery? If so, are we selling every car we make?
Actually can someone do the math? I think in order to have a constant rate of incoming stock of cars without a wave, you DO need 50% of cars in transit at all times.
Lets say demand is 400k/quarter
Lets say you want to stop growing
I think you need to build 200k of inventory so you scale your production up to 600k and then drop production to 400k/year. This will give you a smooth constant amount of cars being stocked all year long.
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