Not a way to build a good buying experience for your customers.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Not a way to build a good buying experience for your customers.
Yeah... probably correct.
Back a decade ago when there was the first $7500 credit (when I bought my S), his reasoning was along the lines of rewarding other manufacturers doing the bare minimum and not really helping with climate change...
Lol... you just said it wasn't excluded, and then outlined what it would need to be included.
As it stands now, it is excluded.
as we know from Kirkhorn's caveats, it's
When you tell Wall St you're "on track" [modulo logistics] to grow 50% and grow 47% it is still bad.
This is why companies like Apple learned to sandbag under the tutelage of Steve Jobs.
Eventually though, Wall St got hip to that, then started rolling out "whisper numbers"
and "analyst expectations" which set an unreasonable higher bar of their own choosing, keeping
the media fed with "beleaguered AAPL" when their own (not the company's) expectations were
"missed". Further, they could pick which of many metrics (like iPad sales in Timbuktu)
constituted the miss. AAPL succeeded in eventually changing the narrative via delivering
good long-term results, simplifying product sales reports and guidance to Wall St.,
and I arbitraged the difference over years of holding.
That, and having a steady CEO/COO management steered by Capt. Cook helped.
Methinks Musk and crew should be careful stating aspirational growth rates. It seems growth
should be measured more by a scaling factor for logistics (supply chain partners, weather, COVID, etc.)
than the raw number of widgets produced/delivered. You know, by using the type of analysis that
SpaceX uses (or the JWST, overcoming X number of steps on the critical path to success).
Perhaps Tesla can do 40% more cars per year for a couple of years, but maybe logistics (say,
train trips through a bottleneck) can only scale 35% or so. I'd be happy with that.
Or maybe tout a different metric like GW of battery cells that can be delivered to customers
when wrapped into deliverable end product, assuming product margins are roughly similar.
Exactly. Trying to reason out what Tesla needs to do to make the MY5 qualify is proving the point that it is in fact excluded. There is no other way to spin it.
I wonder why VW got included though? Is the VW plant in Tennessee a UAW plant (where they plan to build ID4's in the US)?
Model S had an aluminium body in its early days, not sure if/when they changed it. Tesla Model S Aluminum Body: Why Repair Costs Are Higher IIRC that did not compromise its crash test results. Much more expensive to repair though. Model 3 has had steel from the beginning.
The purpose of the IRA is not for either selling more PHEVs or for selling more Tesla Model Ys. It is to get auto manufacturers to increase production and to drive down the cost of an electric vehicle. I dont know how many times it needs to be said those 20 EV mile hybrids already got the $7500 tax credit. They dont compete with Tesla Model Y or Model 3 which now have models that get the $7500 tax credit.
I am against the PHEVs getting the credit like all, but whining about that rather than making sure the country knows that the Tesla Model 3 and Tesla Model Y 7 seater gets the credit is far more important for Maye and Elon to concentrate on. If they want to help get the requirements changed dont whine, push the petition and contact legislators. Maybe Elon can do something with his new right wing fandom and ask them to support adjustments to the IRA other than getting rid of it. Yes subsidies should go away for any type of EV as soon as subsidies for fossil fuel companies go away.
The point of the IRA is to give manufacturers more leeway in producing a competitively prices car with ICE equivalents with similar profit margins. Then they will boost production. Tesla just gets to take advantage of this by ramping production as fast as they can. Lock in the orders and ramp Austin as fast and furious as they can.It doesn't matter. Any EV eligible for the credit is going to be production limited anyway, maybe even the PHEV's too.
This was a pleasant surprise for me today on yahoo! finance:
The Accountant
Active Member
I've seen a few comments that suggest that Tesla should reduce the Model Y LR down to $55k.
That's would have huge financial implications.
Keeping production costs constant and decreasing the selling price from $66k to $55k would require a 69% increase in sales units just to breakeven.
Increased production does decrease the production cost per car a bit but nothing too significant that would make the $55k scenario work.
That's would have huge financial implications.
Keeping production costs constant and decreasing the selling price from $66k to $55k would require a 69% increase in sales units just to breakeven.
Increased production does decrease the production cost per car a bit but nothing too significant that would make the $55k scenario work.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I would be in favor of that in principle, but measures would need to be taken to prevent waiting lists from growing beyond 4 or 5 months to keep the customer purchase experience acceptable and to ensure Tesla would not be promising future prices that would be problematic in the event of sudden inflation or raw materials shortages. Basically, Tesla would have to stop taking new orders periodically. Then it would be like black Friday store openings as soon as Tesla opened ordering back up again, with huge unmet demand. Computer makers would see a surge of warranty replacement of F5 keys. Measures would need to be taken to keep re-sellers (scalpers) out. Many people would feel it was unfair and the bellyaching would be loud. But I wouldn't care, you can't please everyone no matter how you do it.
The Tesla detractors who had been saying the problem with Tesla's and EV's is that they are simply too expensive would have to shift their objections to something else, maybe that the incentives are like welfare for people with enough money to buy new cars. Or maybe that Elon was being anti-competitive and trying to put well-established and more reputable makers out of business, only to jack up prices to the sky once he had the markets to himself.
The real problem with such a strategy would likely be sourcing enough batteries/raw materials that complied with the IRA incentives. Other methods of dealing with IRA incentives don't have that problem (Tesla can sell a mix of subsidized and non-subsidized vehicles much more easily) so I think it's one of the least likely strategies. Tesla management has a great track record of making the maximum amount of lemonade from whatever lemons are thrown their way, so I'm confident they will come up with an optimal solution or fix it quickly if they make the wrong decision initially, for whatever reason.
Another reason I dislike IRA is it's going to cause some real disruptions in the battery/raw materials markets. The batteries and raw materials that comply will carry a price premium which will increase the cost of cars that comply with IRA restrictions. Subsidies have so many unintended consequences that they have to be carefully structured to avoid undesirable side-effects and I'm sure that was not done here. Tesla will be fine, but it does make their jobs a lot harder. It could be that the best strategy is sell high volumes of cars, using batteries that are not eligible for subsidies, at low prices. There are only so many batteries that will comply, and they are going to carry a big price premium.
Favguy
Member
They didn't change it, The S/Y are still all Aluminium.
I think you would find many economists and people in power would argue that reducing inflation for the consumer is often equivalent to margin compression for corporations
For example
US central bankers hope lower profit margins will aid inflation fight
Absorbing costs rather than passing them on to consumers could help ease price pressures
www.ft.com
and the expectation of upcoming earnings compression is likely a lot of what's driving the recent valuation decline across the stock market. These things are all interconnected, higher prices or current prices becoming entrenched merely means higher interest rates and higher rates for longer.
The sooner prices come down, the sooner this will all be behind us
Don't get me wrong, I think we need a lower priced Tesla sooner rather than later.
ntam
Member
How many more Model Y will be sold at $47,500 after the rebate? Also, wouldn't Wright's Law reduce the cost of Goods/car?
Likewise - people talking about how Tesla should drop the Model Y LR 5 seater price to $55k to qualify - it actually makes more financial sense for Tesla to simply offer a $7.5k discount on the current model LR price, as that would be a $58,500 entry level price (more for any additional colors/options) so Tesla would still receive at least $3,500 more in revenue per vehicle.
The Model Y SR coming in under $55k makes a lot of sense though (Tesla already sells the Model Y SR out of shanghai for less than $55k USD in many markets).
Agree. If they are going to chase $55k it should be with a new SKU or perhaps with the Austin Model Y AWD.
Though my Model Y LR was 50k just 22 months ago.
People who want the rebate on the Model Y LR can order the version with the additional seats or maybe Tesla will cook up some other plan for that.
I'm wondering, when March rolls around, are we going to have another last-minute moving target for qualifications?
Yeah I see that being the Model Y AWD listed on the IRS's website with a $55k limit, probably with 4680 batteries that will be specifically geared to hit the battery component and material requirements. They'll divert all of their domestic and free-trade materials to that model and then divvy it up as efficiently as possible.
People are getting all wound up over the MSRP and talking like pricing a vehicle under $55k = guaranteed free $7500. Show me a Toyota Highlander PHEV that will be made without Chinese parts or minerals, the MSRP cap is only the first and lowest hurdle.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
All the major indices have turned south since midday, whereas TSLA has remained roughly level. Partly I think because of the circuit breaker being tripped yesterday, but also because I think we're seeing decent buying at these stupidly low levels.
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