Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[15Peter20]

In the same sentence, he said, the design was finished, he added, but we never really stop finishing the design or put our pencils down. the giga press is just another Texas size marketing. Any manufacturer can purchase a gigapress, they just can’t call it by that cool name. But Tesla doesn’t make it or a hold any patents to it. And they have no data on long-term ownership. If you get a dent does it goes straight to the junkyard.
They would never over sell anything, just like the Texas 4680. A game changer, so much that they had to modify the line to mainly produce Ys with other batteries. And who would buy one without a structural battery pack, the cheaper price, the longer range, the more kilowatt density? also to recycle them you must grind the whole pack up and convert back to ore, smart, very smart

Did you sell low?

 

[KBF]

For those that have missed the point and think I'm arguing that the time spent at a supercharger is an egregious showstopper: I'm not.

I am simply supporting the point made by another forum member that there are indeed differences between an ICE vehicle and an EV, and one of them is "refueling time". As other folks have pointed out, the wikipedia quote of 13 gal/min for a passenger car fuel pump may be high, but I fueled up my 25 gallon Sequoia tank the other day, and it was probably about 4-5 minutes, from pull up to payment. Will the 50gal tank take longer? Sure. Maybe that becomes 8 mins. But clearly that's also not the average tanks size.

According to Tesla, "The Tesla Supercharger is the fastest charging option when you're away from home, allowing you to charge your car up to 200 miles in 15 minutes." In the example above of my Sequoia, I can go 375 miles on the fuel I got in that 5 minutes. To get the additional 175 miles in a Tesla (meaning you need to go to 93% on an S) You're going to be charging for 45 mins. Otherwise you are going to have to stop and charge almost twice as often, incurring not only the charge time, but the pull off time as well.

Again, is it a showstopper for me? No. But facts are facts, and our sticking our collective fingers in our ears pretending like they aren't only makes the detractors look at us as rabid fanbois and dismiss the valid comparisons we make and superiorities we do point out. I'd prefer to have a conversation about actual facts. There are enough EV advantages that we don't have to misrepresent the other factors.

Dead wrong. TSLA proponents should know the truth by now:

It takes me 3 extra seconds to plug in my car at home, and then I don't spend another moment thinking about it until I take 3 seconds to unplug it when I leave. Unlike a gas vehicle, I don't have to waste my time at a gas station that stinks. And that doesn't include time and energy wasted driving TO and FROM the gas station (in my town, its very out of the way).

This covers 99% of my charging. Most people statically drive 40 miles per day. For the vast majority of the year. Yes, there are special people that are exceptions, and have to charge away from home or work.

Who cares how long it takes my car to charge when I'm charging at home, 99% of the time? Show me 1 single ICE that can compete with 3 seconds of my time, (and with no toxic fumes to boot). It's a whole different way of living, folks.

And when I'm on vacation, travelling, I enjoy the journey. I've found that my body needs more breaks than my X does when I do my cross-Canada trips once or twice per year, and I spend FAR more time actually driving - I wouldn't trade dozens of hours driving a lame ICE to save 15 minutes at a Supercharger...

So it becomes a question of what is actually wasting my life/time in tangible ways, and what is more harmful to my health. Reframe, people, don't get sucked into archaic presuppositions of what matters.

Edit: to fit this into the investing thread: you're all welcome to use the '3 seconds' when fighting FUD. Reframing our actual needs and wants for the driving experience is why Tesla will continue to be the best auto sector investment - they engineer based on essentials.

 

[bkp_duke]

That would be a very effective way to control the wait lists. Bounce between just under and just over the cutoff price, so price for those that don't qualify for tax credit doesn't increase much, but it greatly changes incoming order pace for those that do qualify

There are a substantial number of Model Y Performance in inventory now. A large portion of them are like $1700-2500 over the IRA limit.

 

[StealthP3D]

$130 I'll take it

IMO, that would be VERY short-sighted! /s

 

[Artful Dodger]

If FINRA really want to hurt them, rather than a minuscule fine, only allow them to trade shares that they actually own, for a month.

Why FINRA (an owner-operated trade association), and why not the SEC (the Gov't agency charged with regulating the stock market)?

 

[Singuy]

Dead wrong. TSLA proponents should know the truth by now:

It takes me 3 extra seconds to plug in my car at home, and then I don't spend another moment thinking about it until I take 3 seconds to unplug it when I leave. Unlike a gas vehicle, I don't have to waste my time at a gas station that stinks. And that doesn't include time and energy wasted driving TO and FROM the gas station (in my town, its very out of the way).

This covers 99% of my charging. Most people statically drive 40 miles per day. For the vast majority of the year. Yes, there are special people that are exceptions, and have to charge away from home or work.

Who cares how long it takes my car to charge when I'm charging at home, 99% of the time? Show me 1 single ICE that can compete with 3 seconds of my time, (and with no toxic fumes to boot). It's a whole different way of living, folks.

And when I'm on vacation, travelling, I enjoy the journey. I've found that my body needs more breaks than my X does when I do my cross-Canada trips once or twice per year, and I spend FAR more time actually driving - I wouldn't trade dozens of hours driving a lame ICE to save 15 minutes at a Supercharger...

So it becomes a question of what is actually wasting my life/time in tangible ways, and what is more harmful to my health. Reframe, people, don't get sucked into archaic presuppositions of what matters.

Edit: to fit this into the investing thread: you're all welcome to use the '3 seconds' when fighting FUD. Reframing our actual needs and wants for the driving experience is why Tesla will continue to be the best auto sector investment - they engineer based on essentials.

This is one of the major factors that will keep EV buyers from going back to gas. People are so used to getting gas once or twice a week so they never think of charging at home as some kind of a must have feature. Once they start charging at home, it's almost seizure inducing to think how you must go back to the gas station one to twice a week.

Like when you say what is the one defining feature that keeps people from switching back to ICE cars...this is it. It's not the smooth ride, the acceleration, the no emission, or the lack of maintenance. Once a behavior that requires effort is eliminated, don't expect humans to ever want that behavior reintroduced again.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If FSD had come to fruition as planned, like Apple succeeded with the iPhone, this would all be a moot point. But it hasn't come to fruition as planned, and an iPhone doesn't have the potential public safety implications. The lawsuit in question here revolves around a fatal Autopilot accident in 2018.

Not helpful to conflate FSD aspirational goals with Autopilot from 2018. The two are separate, and FSD is progressing toward the stated goal. Notice there was no fixed timeline assigned to the end goal?

 

[BornToFly]

This is one of the major factors that will keep EV buyers from going back to gas. People are so used to getting gas once or twice a week so they never think of charging at home as some kind of a must have feature. Once they start charging at home, it's almost seizure inducing to think how you must go back to the gas station one to twice a week.

Like when you say what is the one defining feature that keeps people from switching back to ICE cars...this is it. It's not the smooth ride, the acceleration, the no emission, or the lack of maintenance. Once a behavior that requires effort is eliminated, don't expect humans to ever want that behavior reintroduced again.

It's like this - Would you rather have a phone that lasts all day and that you plug in at your house when you go to bed every night, or have a phone that lasts a week but you have to drive to the Apple Store and wait 5 minutes for it to charge there?

 

[dgodfrey]

And when all the EA chargers are broken or there’s a line down the block people will gladly pay double price to charge at a Tesla supercharger.

It's really starting to get ugly in the third party DCFC world. For years I've countered claims of EA trouncing SpC numbers as if site count matters, on non-Tesla forums. These same cheerleaders post charts without context of major failure rates of CCS chargers. And of the remaining working CCS chargers, they average ~100kW?, of course mostly located in densely populated areas in hopes of a utilization rate that staves off insolvency.

I'm starting to hear more and more outrage as the villagers carrying torches and pitchforks hunt down the monsterous frankenplug.
This is just one excerpt from the Mach-e forum.

https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/no-more-road-trips-with-our-mach-e-a-2-hour-drive-to-joshua-tree-turns-into-a-3-hour-drive.25159/

The basic question this and many other similar threads beg is what would you be willing to pay, on top of your direct costs, to guarantee you had a hassle free, minimum transit time trip? Remember Kettleman City? One where the recharge stations had a working charger with your name on it when you arrived, a warm moist towel to freshen up after that grueling 65 kWh run at 45 mph to save electrons, a waiting dining table for you and your crew, or possibly an appointment for a quick mani/pedi/massage while you charge, and then send you on the way with a clean windshield, a warm chocolate chip cookie and an a fresh cup of coffee/soda/water? Is an additional $50 per trip to access this level or service worth it? Maybe $75? A monthly $15 subscription? I don't know if I'd do it, but I'd seriously consider it.

I can tell you based on my last trip, I would have paid anything to know that the fast charger was working to take the stress out of a trip.

I love the people that complain about the cost of charging, in particular at the station I used, while I am thanking that the heavens it is working. I would have paid anything they charged, especially not to hear my wife say again, this car is not for long trips.

 

[jhm]

Something must be wrong here. Tesla is up to $131!?!?

 

[Ogre]

Didn’t Musk say Tesla was opening up Superchargers in the US before EOY 2022? What happened to that? Was their releasing the NCAS standard his idea of opening it up? Maybe Tesla should start selling Tesla-CCS adaptors with appropriate length pigtails on their site, I expect they’d be hugely popular.

 

[AndrewZ]

Not helpful to conflate FSD aspirational goals with Autopilot from 2018. The two are separate, and FSD is progressing toward the stated goal. Notice their was no fixed timeline assigned to the end goal?

This did get a bit off track before I remembered the video was already part of a class-action way back when and that resulted in payments being sent out to owners at the time. Not even getting into all the interim goals, tweets, statements since 2016 and even before, I’ve been following autonomous technology and FSD very closely for quite a few years now.

But I’m here to cite good things where deserved and call out bad things where deserved, this is a bad thing IMO. And Tesla isn’t the only company to hype up autonomous driving that hasn’t materialized the way it was hoped (yet).

 

[scaesare]

Dead wrong. TSLA proponents should know the truth by now:

It takes me 3 extra seconds to plug in my car at home, and then I don't spend another moment thinking about it until I take 3 seconds to unplug it when I leave. Unlike a gas vehicle, I don't have to waste my time at a gas station that stinks. And that doesn't include time and energy wasted driving TO and FROM the gas station (in my town, its very out of the way).

This covers 99% of my charging. Most people statically drive 40 miles per day. For the vast majority of the year. Yes, there are special people that are exceptions, and have to charge away from home or work.

Who cares how long it takes my car to charge when I'm charging at home, 99% of the time? Show me 1 single ICE that can compete with 3 seconds of my time, (and with no toxic fumes to boot). It's a whole different way of living, folks.

And when I'm on vacation, travelling, I enjoy the journey. I've found that my body needs more breaks than my X does when I do my cross-Canada trips once or twice per year, and I spend FAR more time actually driving - I wouldn't trade dozens of hours driving a lame ICE to save 15 minutes at a Supercharger...

So it becomes a question of what is actually wasting my life/time in tangible ways, and what is more harmful to my health. Reframe, people, don't get sucked into archaic presuppositions of what matters.

Edit: to fit this into the investing thread: you're all welcome to use the '3 seconds' when fighting FUD. Reframing our actual needs and wants for the driving experience is why Tesla will continue to be the best auto sector investment - they engineer based on essentials.

Did you really think that in the discussion wherein time spent refueling versus supercharging, the comparison was between gasoline refueling and home charging?

Option A: You did, and clearly need help with context clues.

Option B: You didn't, and are making a specious argument.

Giving you the benefit of the doubt, I'll assume you weren't assuming folks had a supercharger at their homes. Therefore we must be talking about situations where supercharging is necessary: road trips or those with no home charging option. Therefore, your assertion that there isn't a difference in that scenario is:

Dead wrong.

is... umm.. dead wrong.

Allow me to repeat myself: ignoring the differences. between ICE's and EV's does no good. Let's talk facts. That means acknowledging where EV's are at a disadvantage, as well as pointing out advantages. Representing the facts will only help.

You point out a good advantage: starting every day from home with a a full charge. Tout that, it's compelling. Don't conflate it with the fact when road tripping it's going to take longer to refuel/recharge per mile of range gained. It's just math.

 

[Prunesquallor]

It's really starting to get ugly in the third party DCFC world. For years I've countered claims of EA trouncing SpC numbers as if site count matters, on non-Tesla forums. These same cheerleaders post charts without context of major failure rates of CCS chargers. And of the remaining working CCS chargers, they average ~100kW?, of course mostly located in densely populated areas in hopes of a utilization rate that staves off insolvency.

I'm starting to hear more and more outrage as the villagers carrying torches and pitchforks hunt down the monsterous frankenplug.
This is just one excerpt from the Mach-e forum.

https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/no-more-road-trips-with-our-mach-e-a-2-hour-drive-to-joshua-tree-turns-into-a-3-hour-drive.25159/

I can tell you based on my last trip, I would have paid anything to know that the fast charger was working to take the stress out of a trip.

I love the people that complain about the cost of charging, in particular at the station I used, while I am thanking that the heavens it is working. I would have paid anything they charged, especially not to hear my wife say again, this car is not for long trips.

Wow, that IS ugly. And there is some serious copium inhalation going on with the replies. One guy’s solution was hopping from one Ford dealership to another.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Didn’t Musk say Tesla was opening up Superchargers in the US before EOY 2022? What happened to that? Was their releasing the NCAS standard his idea of opening it up? Maybe Tesla should start selling Tesla-CCS adaptors with appropriate length pigtails on their site, I expect they’d be hugely popular.

This is one of the questions I go back and forth with.
Thinking of all the pros and cons of opening the network to non Tesla's.
Something keeps telling me perhaps Tesla should keep the Moat around the Castle for a while to keep people from buying non Tesla's, and the other part is, does that keep with the mission for more people to switch to ev's??

 

[jerry33]

You point out a good advantage: staring every day from home with a a full charge. Tout that, it's compelling. Don't conflate it with the fact when road tripping it's going to take longer to refuel/recharge per mile of range gained. It's just math.

This really depends on the individual. It takes me the same time to drive from DFW to Lincoln in a Tesla as it did in the Prius or VW (actually less time in the X). Now if you are 20 and don't stop for anything the results would be different

 

[Artful Dodger]

From the article “Naked short selling isn’t necessarily against the rules”. So, is it or isn’t it??

Do you read this forum? Options Market Makers have an exemption to the prohibition against short selling. It's called the "Madoff Exemption": Key Points About Regulation SHO - SEC.gov https://www.sec.gov › investor › pubs › regsho

 

[FSDtester#1]

Did you really think that in the discussion wherein time spent refueling versus supercharging, the comparison was between gasoline refueling and home charging?

Option A: You did, and clearly need help with context clues.

Option B: You didn't, and are making a specious argument.

Giving you the benefit of the doubt, I'll assume you weren't assuming folks had a supercharger at their homes. Therefore we must be talking about situations where supercharging is necessary: road trips or those with no charging option. Therefore your assertion that there isn't a difference in that scenario is:



is... umm.. dead wrong.

Allow me to repeat myself: ignoring the differences. between ICE's and EV's does no good. Let's talk facts. That means acknowledging where EV's are at a disadvantage, as well as pointing out advantages. Representing the facts will only help.

You point out a good advantage: staring every day from home with a a full charge. Tout that, it's compelling. Don't conflate it with the fact when road tripping it's going to take longer to refuel/recharge per mile of range gained. It's just math.

Have had my Tesla 2 years. Only time to gas station was for beer .
2 times to a supercharger because I found out with 2 weeks to spare that my free miles were expiring. So spent 5 minutes, 2 times at a supercharger.
Had I not just wanted to try it out to check the speed difference, the answer would be 0 superchargers in 2 years. So 99.99% home charging not breathing all the cancer causing fumes at a gas station. I would assert all of our health is worth a few extra minutes if constant road tripping is the thing you like to do, or have to for work.

 

[scaesare]

So 99.99% home charging not breathing all the cancer causing fumes at a gas station. I would assert all of our health is worth a few extra minutes if constant road tripping is the thing you like to do, or have to for work.

Sure, and that's a value judgement about the value of the extra time spent. One I happen to agree with. And is worth helping the uninitiated to understand,

But that's different than the math for the actual time to charge, no?

 

[Artful Dodger]

You called it.

Actually, @Papafox called it, on Saturday: #3,867

Max pain for Friday, Jan 20 rises to 135, which should get the market makers off our back for a day or two. It's possible we could see 135 by week's end.

Here's the TSLA Options Open Interest chart for Fri, Jan 20, 2023 (published last Friday at 7:00 a.m.)

Cheers!