Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dikkie Dik]

Excellent thread debunking the myth of the world coming to an end because of mining for rare earth minerals and such for the energy transition.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1617493787852283904

 

[SOULPEDL]

There it is: we tagged the Upper-BB at 09:40 E.T. on moderate volume, so now let's see how much buying interest there is going into the earnings report.

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Cheers to the Longs!

Like an old friend! It's been a long, long time since I heard anything about the BBands. I assume we've been just pushing it down all year, until now.

 

[Artful Dodger]

3. Use of the Fuel

Have you ever heard a semi-truck engine brake through your neighborhood? Think about that…ENGINE BRAKE! Burning fuel to slow your semi down because your semi burned more fuel than it needed to get up to speed. You’ve heard the sound. Think about the CO2 next time you hear it.

Let's try that again, except with Tesla Semi:

4. Use of Regen brakes:​

​

Have you ever heard a Tesla semi-truck decelerate through your neighborhood? That amazing turbine whine? That's REGEN BRAKING! While slowing down, Semi rebottles the energy of motion, so you can use it again later. You’ve heard the sound. That whine is like a fine wine waiting to be uncorked!​

 

[UncaNed]

We will get a hint on Wednesday. His actions indicate he sees his role at Tesla receding IMO. 2023 looks to be about Starship, StarLink and other interests while Tesla as a well positioned public company seems to be entering harvest season as other disruptive interests ascend. The future is not just about vehicles for EM.

What is this conclusion based on:
"His actions indicate he sees his role at Tesla receding IMO. 2023 looks to be about Starship, StarLink and..."

?? I know he's got other irons in the fire, (all of which I strongly approve of), but I've never been concerned that Tesla will suffer because of it.

 

[Big Time]

Loved the cnbc chart for top S&P gainers….. organized by +percentage gain….TSLA missing from the list but had been replaced by ETSY
TSLA shares cost the same as APPL

 

[Gigapress]

Has anyone done any math on the market share equation and what may happen if other companies go out of business? Some smart folks I frequently debate TSLA with point to the 2030 number goal (20m cars/year) and believe there's zero chance TSLA will be selling 1 out of every 3 cars. Given there are about 14 major global brands right now, I assume this doesn't happen unless some of these companies go out of business. Even if they sell 1 in 10 cars, that's about 6-7 million a year.

Those smart folks should start by researching how many cars are actually sold before having a strong opinion about this. 20M in 2030 would be closer to 1 in 4 cars sold being Teslas.

Pre-pandemic, the number of cars sold globally was over 70M/yr and was trending towards 80M/yr. By the 2030s, if nothing substantially changes then we'll be looking at a global TAM of 80-100M/yr, largely dependent on the rate of economic development and car purchasing in middle-income countries with large populations, like China, India, Mexico and Brazil.

Source: Statista


I posted this two weeks ago. Maybe you will find it helpful in your debates.

Remember that Tesla is a luxury car maker now, but the end game is to sell most of their volume in mass-market affordable EVs, making Toyota and VW the best comparisons. Each of these companies sells 1 out of every 7 cars today.

Tesla has achieved like 30-50% market share in every segment for which they currently offer vehicles. The entire global auto industry is likely to grow to about 90-100M vehicles per year a decade from now. 20M for Tesla would be 20-25% market share.

Toyota and VW each sell about 10M per year nowadays and neither company has the kind of product differentiation or cost advantage that Tesla has, so predicting Tesla can ultimately double the market share achieved by these two companies is pretty reasonable.

Further if you look at markets like California, Tesla is already almost tied with Toyota in units sold despite much higher ASPs and despite only offering S3XY and no trucks, large SUVs, etc. California is on the leading edge of this EV disruption. Extrapolate out from California to the whole world and 20M looks feasible.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I notice that GM announced the towing capacity of the new Silverado EV, but not the range while towing: (deliveries expected to begin Fall 2023)

Chevrolet releases Silverado EV’s towing capacity test results | Teslarati.com

Chevrolet releases Silverado EV’s towing capacity test results

Chevrolet released the Silverado EV’s towing capacity results after validations tests. The Silverado EV will be available by 2024.

www.teslarati.com

 

[scaesare]

Let's try that again, except with Tesla Semi:

4. Use of Regen brakes:​

​

Have you ever heard a Tesla semi-truck decelerate through your neighborhood? That amazing turbine whine? That's REGEN BRAKING! While slowing down, Semi rebottles the energy of motion, so you can use it again later. You’ve heard the sound. That whine is like a fine wine waiting to be uncorked!​

Yeah, reframing it as a lost opportunity to recapture the vehicle momentum energy during deceleration by using a wasteful engine brake rather than regenerative braking would be a great revision to that article.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Any regular visitor of this thread knows that the Twitter subject has been chewed on again and again. Still, every now and then someone feels the need to start ruminating again, which quickly turns into regurgitating because many others jump in. One full page of posts related to Twitter have been moved to the Twitter thread, the person who caused the uproar sent on vacation (mods clearly indicated on several occasions that there would be no more warnings). Stop posting about this subject in the main thread.

 

[LST]

Impressive capping underway...

 

[CHGolferJim]

I notice that GM announced the towing capacity of the new Silverado EV, but not the range while towing: (deliveries expected to begin Fall 2023)

Chevrolet releases Silverado EV’s towing capacity test results | Teslarati.com

Chevrolet releases Silverado EV’s towing capacity test results

Chevrolet released the Silverado EV’s towing capacity results after validations tests. The Silverado EV will be available by 2024.

www.teslarati.com

It is going to be fascinating watching ICE+BEV U.S. pickup truck market shares once CT launches.

 

[The Accountant]

I have not seen any estimates posted with the exception of James S.
Will update the table as estimates are published. Still searching for wall street consensus numbers.
I will post my full P&L in the financial thread shortly - hopefully later today.

 

[CitizenKane]

Those smart folks should start by researching how many cars are actually sold before having a strong opinion about this. 20M would be closer to 1 in 4 cars sold being Teslas.

Pre-pandemic, the number of cars sold globally was over 70M/yr and was trending towards 80M/yr. By the 2030s, if nothing substantially changes then we'll be looking at a global TAM of 80-100M/yr, largely dependent on the rate of economic development and car purchasing in middle-income countries like China and Brazil.

View attachment 898793
Source: Statista


I posted this two weeks ago. Maybe you will find it helpful in your debates.

Remember that Tesla is a luxury car maker now, but the end game is to sell most of their volume in mass-market affordable EVs, making Toyota and VW the best comparisons. Each of these companies sells 1 out of every 7 cars today.

I am speculating that if FSD works, then there should be more transport as a service models, which should allow for an increased number of trips but at the same time fewer vehicles, due to better utilization. And if so, more of the transportation revenues should end up with the companies that introduce transport buyers to transport sellers. Hardware (and vehicle software) will remain important, but it is often the party closest to the end consumer which has the most power and thus margins. This could be Tesla, but it could also be some other company similar to Uber, brokering between passengers and cars.

But in any event, there should be enough demand for Tesla to sell 20 million cars in 2030, even if the total number of cars sold would have gone down by then. If you don't own the car but just use one when you need a transport, this should greatly decrease the interest in differentiation between cars. Look at e-scooters or bikes for rent, they can all look the same as long as they have the needed functionality and performance.

 

[Gigapress]

I notice that GM announced the towing capacity of the new Silverado EV, but not the range while towing: (deliveries expected to begin Fall 2023)

Chevrolet releases Silverado EV’s towing capacity test results | Teslarati.com

Chevrolet releases Silverado EV’s towing capacity test results

Chevrolet released the Silverado EV’s towing capacity results after validations tests. The Silverado EV will be available by 2024.

www.teslarati.com

Probably not many companies will post an estimate for range while towing, because that will heavily depend on the load, the route and the speed. The load has more impact on range than the vehicle itself when towing something big. It's impossible to give an accurate single number as an estimate.

 

[Zaxxon]

Happy 10-year anniversary of Brodergate to all who observe!

 

[GOVA]

I'll never forget CNBC and thir tool showing a chart with pre-pre split and saying that TSLA would never go over $375.

Curious if they reuse it when TSLA approaches $375 soon?

 

[Mengy]

Impressive capping underway...
View attachment 898816

That Chicken Genius barrier of $140 is proving tough to break through!

EDIT: And just as I posted this, BAMMM!!!!!!

 

[lascavarian]

What is this conclusion based on:
"His actions indicate he sees his role at Tesla receding IMO. 2023 looks to be about Starship, StarLink and..."

?? I know he's got other irons in the fire, (all of which I strongly approve of), but I've never been concerned that Tesla will suffer because of it.

Conclusions…

One could look at patterns of financial interest. SpaceX is in a heavy spending period IMO and raising a bit of cash. StarLink is developing services at a price premium.

Tesla experiencing a reduction in ownership and divided attention (my observation YMMV).

Regarding cautionary impact on Tesla (suffering per your comment), I don’t think we will know until we hear from Tesla management and even then it may not be until March for the answer to some questions. And it may be that macros are the driver for the stock during first half of 2023 so there is that.

 

[Nocturnal]

That Chicken Genius barrier of $140 is proving tough to break through!

EDIT: And just as I posted this, BAMMM!!!!!!

And it's delicious.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I have not seen any estimates posted with the exception of James S.
Will update the table as estimates are published. Still searching for wall street consensus numbers.
I will post my full P&L in the financial thread shortly - hopefully later today.

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Can't wait to see what the Tesla Economist forecast is