Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MartinAustin]

CNBC is about to discuss the Model Y being the best-selling vehicle in California

EDIT: well that wasn't too bad! Almost like promotion!

 

[ZeApelido]

All three of our Model 3's look identical, all white, and all sporting Aero wheels.

You sound exciting.

 

[ThisStockGood]

$TSLA the last three hours.

Not that I'm complaining. Nice to be back in the 200s.

 

[Ogre]

Fun factoid. We are just shy of double the 24 month low set just a few weeks ago.

A 2% swing today is just as profitable to us as a 4% swing around the first of the year.

A 50% run from here is $303/ share, a triple from our lows. February doesn't have to work as hard as January did... half as hard and we'll get there.

 

[JimS]

I just picked up our third matching Pearl White Model 3's

How ‘bout a picture of the three cars lined up! In fact, line them up in the rain so we can see those amazing orange roofs on those early builds.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Only issue is that they don't work 365 days/year, esp in Giga Shanghai.

This prediction has nothing to do with days per year, and everything to do with 50% YoY growth. But you can't fit that exact number in a matrix with 3 discreet variables, so their easter egg used the closest value:

X​	Y​	Z​	Wkly​	D/Yr​	Prod​
38​	16​	8​	4,864​	365​	1,775,360​
39​	16​	8​	4,992​	365​	1,822,080​
38​	17​	8​	5,168​	365​	1,886,320​
39​	17​	8​	5,304​	365​	1,935,960​
40​	17​	8​	5,440​	365​	1,985,600​
39​	18​	8​	5,616​	365​	2,049,840​
40​	18​	8​	5,760​	365​	2,102,400​

To have exactly 50% YoY growth from 2022's production of 1,313,851 cars, Tesla would need 1,970,777 cars in 2023. Keep in mind, this is just Auto growth. Tesla Energy will grow much faster in 2023/24 (per my #399,085 on Sunday).

I do expect Tesla will also discuss TE product growth on Investor Day (Mar 1st).

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[StealthP3D]

You sound exciting.

I'm very exciting. Everyone's talking about how exciting I am.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm a 'Glaswegian' by birth and upbringing, and now a Naturalized US citizen. Maybe we should all show the people of this Country how we feel about Tesla.

Oh, you're a Weegie? Slàinte Mhath! Welcome to the New World!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wall Street droids may understand the words being spoken, it's clear to me that they do not always understand the implication...

Oh, but they DO UNDERSTAND. That's why JPMoargas and their ilk are fighting so hard. And it's getting away on them, so dey pannick...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Didn't Elon already say that Master Plan 3 is basically just about increasing the scale of production?

Yes, on numerous occasions over the past year. Elon introduced the topic last March:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "Working on Master Plan Part 3" / Twitter | Mar 17, 2022​

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@DoctorJack16 Main Tesla subjects will be scaling to extreme size, which is needed to shift humanity away from fossil fuels, and AI. But I will also Include sections about SpaceX, Tesla and The Boring Company." / Twitter | Mar 21, 2022​

He spoke about it in an interview: Elon Musk talks battery scale at TED2022 | Apr 14, 2022

Elon tweeted this on Aug 10, 2022:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@Jason Coming soon. Part 3 is about scaling sustainable energy at a civilizational level to enable a bright future for Earth." / Twitter​

Elon also tweeted this on Oct 2, 2022:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@DoctorJack16 Master Plan (mé·nage à) Trois is all about tonnage" / Twitter​

 

[scaesare]

A 6 year old understand the implications. It's a 2nd grade math exercise to model out the potential cash flow of robotaxi and optimus. However Wallstreet can also model out the cash flow implication of a teleportation device or a flux capacitor. It doesn't mean anything until it is in hand, fully functioning as promised, and putting up number to the bottom line. Actually you don't even need it to make money, you just need it working as promised.

You announce science fiction products, you get science fiction reception until it becomes science facts.

Oh they may understand what the quarterly #'s mean. They don't understand the much bigger picture of what the products, technology, future landscape, etc... mean. They are very myopic. Their complete miss of the Tesla Energy potential for years now is only one such example...

 

[Drumheller]

Fun factoid. We are just shy of double the 24 month low set just a few weeks ago.

A 2% swing today is just as profitable to us as a 4% swing around the first of the year.

A 50% run from here is $303/ share, a triple from our lows. February doesn't have to work as hard as January did... half as hard and we'll get there.

And still shy of half the value of TSLA back in early November 2021

 

[bkp_duke]

I'll say it. I'm flat out STUNNED that the pirates let us close north of 200 today. Stunned I tell you.

 

[Todd Burch]

I'll say it. I'm flat out STUNNED that the pirates let us close north of 200 today. Stunned I tell you.

We should expect the $199.98 close on Friday, no?

 

[Singuy]

Oh they may understand what the quarterly #'s mean. They don't understand the much bigger picture of what the products, technology, future landscape, etc... mean. They are very myopic. Their complete miss of the Tesla Energy potential for years now is only one such example...

Energy revenue and profitability was correctly valued based on execution. Elon said the energy business will be bigger than the auto business. Great, that's a future projection that has yet to come to fruition. You wanted wallstreet to do what exactly after Elon said that? Value energy bigger than auto in order to "get it" at that moment in time?

 

[chrsk]

I'll say it. I'm flat out STUNNED that the pirates let us close north of 200 today. Stunned I tell you.

Indeed. Question is if that they have something planned for tomorrow/Friday. Back in the days that used to be when they went all in.

 

[mongo]

This prediction has nothing to do with days per year, and everything to do with 50% YoY growth. But you can't fit that exact number in a matrix with 3 discreet variables, so their easter egg used the closest value:

X​	Y​	Z​	Wkly​	D/Yr​	Prod​
38​	16​	8​	4,864​	365​	1,775,360​
39​	16​	8​	4,992​	365​	1,822,080​
38​	17​	8​	5,168​	365​	1,886,320​
39​	17​	8​	5,304​	365​	1,935,960​
40​	17​	8​	5,440​	365​	1,985,600​
39​	18​	8​	5,616​	365​	2,049,840​
40​	18​	8​	5,760​	365​	2,102,400​

To have exactly 50% YoY growth from 2022's production of 1,313,851 cars, Tesla would need 1,970,777 cars in 2023. Keep in mind, this is just Auto growth. Tesla Energy will grow much faster in 2023/24 (per my #399,085 on Sunday).

I do expect Tesla will also discuss TE product growth on Investor Day (Mar 1st).

Cheers to the Longs!

Your column is daily, not Wkly.
Also, I think there are more than 8 units per rack. (I know that number is from Cory).

 

[Ogre]

And still shy of half the value of TSLA back in early November 2021

Hit the laughing reaction… because there is no crying reaction button.

 

[jw934]

CNBC is about to discuss the Model Y being the best-selling vehicle in California

EDIT: well that wasn't too bad! Almost like promotion!

Here it is, for reference.

 

[Snerruc]

D*mn kids!

Let me tell you about a "party line"

I grew up on a party line. Two longs and a short.