KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
I agree - Plugshare would be much more useful if check-ins were automated and real-time.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
NEVI should improve this, as it requires NEVI funded stalls to have real-time individual stall usage data available to anyone via API. Of course, that won't help if the stall is down but they don't know it. But you should be able to see the last time the stall was used successfully.
Captkerosene
Member
The numbers match up pretty well if we just multiply the last market cap targets by ten. (Payouts start at 1T) Maybe a 1% earn for each 500B in added market cap over the next ten years. ID3 would be a good time to announce it. Nobody at CNBC would be laughing this time. You keep what you kill.
Is this one based on reality, or is it more hallucinations?
Tesla hasn't even acknowledged "Project Highland" exists. Can we at least wait until Investor Day to see if they mention it instead of entertaining wild speculation? 
petit_bateau
Active Member
As it happens I sketched out some numbers for Germany a couple of months ago.
A school in Germany asked me for some help as I explain in the link which I thought might also be of interest here, so I posted a copy of it in the energy news thread as well.
Folks may find it informative. (The link below will take you straight to post #402).
Energy Sector News
WTI $73.9 bbl Brent $78.5 /bbl NL TTF gas €137/MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote) Regulatory proxy for fossils fights domestic solar, again https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/12/08/regulator-could-prove-solars-nemesis/ UK gets tightish...
teslamotorsclub.com
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Based on 'clicks' it would seem. In the 30 min since this video was posted, the owner has flagged it on Youtube so it can not be embedded (only watch on Youtube.com)
So I deleted the link.
BTW, I agree, this guy is no 'aerospace engineer'. He handwaves off objections about using cast aluminum vs. high-strength steel for a car's safety cage / structure, saying just that alum casting could be made thicker. What Engineer would do that?
I would expect Young's modulus talk and engineering equations, even if he just gave the answers. As it is, it doesn't even sound like he asked the questions. More likely, he's another TE-style emotional investor who is just talking his book.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Sure they did. Tesla used the term "Project Highland" explicitly in permit applications for Fremont, along with dates. It was discussed here on TMC if you missed it, and at Teslarati:
- Tesla's Model 3 revamp project has been in motion for six months
- Tesla developing revamped Model 3 under "Project Highland:" report
“Demolition of existing equipment and utilities in preparation for new Hang on Line. Demolition of existing slab-on-grade, pit excavation, and construction of new concrete pit at first floor of assembly building.”
HOL stands for “Hang On Line,” a type of GA assembly line that Tesla utilizes in the Fremont factory for the Model 3
I think the companies would argue they're anti-dilutive because they'd be issuing options grants regardless, but it can feel like something of a shell game when buybacks are happening and grants are being awarded. You can look at the number of outstanding shares over time for companies doing buybacks, adjust for splits, and determine whether investors are actually getting more equity in a company over time or whether buybacks are being offset by further options grants.
Mostly I'm just suggesting this stuff isn't often straightforward and I don't know how many companies out there are actually ending up with net less outstanding shares over time and more equity in investor's hands
Aren’t GigaFremont & GigaShanghai using paint shops that are the same boring technology that are used in “Legacy” paint shops? It’s only Austin & Berlin that have the new fancy paintshops?Legacy paint shops are useless to Tesla. Tesla uses highly automated and efficient paint shops that are integrated to the factory operating systems. These advanced paint shops are very, very difficult to integrate in an established factory, hence Tesla uses them in new factories but apparently not in Fremont. All this has been posted here multiple times.
This, as an example is one of many things that is not suitable for retrofit. Perhaps it would be an advantage to have structural permissions in place. However, the difficulties are clear when tesla has not chosen disused former plants for anything at all since Fremont. The sole exceptions have been warehouses, simple assembly plants like Lathrop in 2014:
Even there when they decided on Lathrop for utility-level storage they built a new building:
Tesla Megafactory: New Megapack Factory in Lathrop ...YouTube · Tesla North 28 secondsOct 25, 2022
The net is that Tesla can and does convert existing car dealerships to Tesla sales and service centers and can use existing warehouses for warehouse operations, they do not use existing factories for factory operations because Tesla manufacturing bears little comparison with legacy manufacturing. The analogy is something like using a buggy factory to build cars. i.e. some did that, but they all failed. Those which did that initially, such as the Studebaker brothers, almost immediately built new factories.
OEM's such as VW are converting plants. That approach will fail precisely because they'll build ICE cars that happen to be electric rather than pure BEV. They're reusing traditional suppliers and designing just as they did. That model will continue to be inefficient compared to purpose-built factories and designs. That is just like using established techniques to produce high altitude turbojet airplanes. Ask de Havilland how the Comet worked out!
Such things as pouch cells and Tier One supplier dependency are contributing factors to decisions to use existing factories and manufacturing processes. That approach fails! almost every time. 'almost' because that can work, but has lower efficiency, e.g. Fremont.
You will have to explain to me why “legacy” ICE paint shops in europe wouldn’t be adequate for EVs. How is painting an EV body/parts any different from painting ICE body/parts? Seems like there is zero difference.
==========
Here is a claim that between 70-80% of equipment in an ICE manufacturing line can be reused for an EV line: Repurposing Vehicle Manufacturing Equipment in the Transition to Electrification - HSSMI
One item I find interesting is that Joe Tegtmeyer has stopped drone snooping inside the Texas casting area. I would have thought this would be one of his key areas of focus with the new 9k press being installed. Perhaps Tesla have asked him not to snoop if they are doing something new that may be commercially sensitive or gives away info ahead of investor day. Not saying CtD is accurate, but there appears to be something going on at Texas casting that Tesla doesn't want to share.Based on 'clicks' it would seem. In the 30 min since this video was posted, the owner has flagged it on Youtube so it can not be embedded (only watch on Youtube.com)
So I deleted the link.
BTW, I agree, this guy is no 'aerospace engineer'. He handwaves off objections about using cast aluminum vs. high-strength steel for a car's safety cage / structure, saying just that alum casting could be made thicker. What Engineer would do that?
I would expect Young's modulus talk and engineering equations, even if he just gave the answers. As it is, it doesn't even sound like he asked the questions. More likely, he's another TE-style emotional investor who is just talking his book.
Good question. There are four reasons:
1. Cost- the entire process is automated and reduces paint usage, rework, labor and is faster;
2. flexility- can change colors quickly while eliminating manual change control;
3. allows for complex colors that yield higher prices;
4. The increased quality throughout dramatically reduces delivery rework and customer complaints.
As for that claim, they do not appear to have any particular qualifications to opine. That could only happen by building a BEV on an ICE chassis. We all know how well that works.
They put up curtains in the windows.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Isn't that the area where Tesla had hung 'blinds' on the windows recently? Joe covered it in a recent video, I think.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Article on the politics in Mexico around locating the Tesla plant. Sounds like the Mexican president wants to decide where it should go and is using the water as and excuse for not approving Nuevo Leon.
www.wsj.com
Opinion | Tesla Meets the Rule of AMLO
But López Obrador says he’ll allow the U.S. to subsidize Mexico’s wind farms.
www.wsj.com
Curtains? Elon musks team developed recyclable fiber based anti drone technology that will be a highlight on investor day
.
Russians have already tried stealing prototypes
.Russians have already tried stealing prototypes
A while back he caught ahold of some Cybertruck footage which was floating around after Cyber Rodeo and he didn’t realize it was 9 months old. He went long on a video talking about how Tesla “Leaked 2 new vehicles”. When I called him on the video source he told me “Elon is trying to fool us by posting new video that “Looks just like footage from Cyber Rodeo”Based on 'clicks' it would seem. In the 30 min since this video was posted, the owner has flagged it on Youtube so it can not be embedded (only watch on Youtube.com)
So I deleted the link.
BTW, I agree, this guy is no 'aerospace engineer'. He handwaves off objections about using cast aluminum vs. high-strength steel for a car's safety cage / structure, saying just that alum casting could be made thicker. What Engineer would do that?
I would expect Young's modulus talk and engineering equations, even if he just gave the answers. As it is, it doesn't even sound like he asked the questions. More likely, he's another TE-style emotional investor who is just talking his book.
His Diamond turn video was well done, but pretty fanciful, I didn’t realize at the time that the dots he’s connecting are outside our current space and time.
Yes, that is right.
Where CTD is correct is that if Tesla intends to cast the roof/sides it possibly needs to be different alloy to the bottom castings.
We don't know if that alloy exists with the right strength and flow rate, but Tesla / SpaceX are the most likely companies to develop it.
The performance of individual metals doesn't really indicate how an alloy comprised of multiple metals would perform.
It is interesting at alloys can have lower melting points than pure metals:-
All Metals & Forge Group Home Page - All Metals & Forge Group
Open die forgings and seamless rolled rings to ASTM, AMS, AISI, ASME and other industry standard specifications.
steelforge.com
However, the stacked castings outside and the covered windows isn't strong evidence for Tesla casting other parts of the car, It is still a remote possibility,
Covered windows could be explained by making castings for the Cybertruck, which for now Tesla want to remain hidden.
The wiring harness makes perfect sense to me, and I would not anticipate any issues with car regulation.
If Model 3 Highland and perhaps Model Y / Cybertruck had brake-by-wire and steer-by-wire, I don't doubt that the technology works, and at scale combined with the wiring harness, would eventually be a faster / cheaper way of building cars. My big doubt is the process of getting cars with those features approved by the regulator, I know nothing about the US process.
By hypothetically if Model 3 Highland had brake-by-wire and steer-by-wire that at least starts the process of getting regulatory approval for those technologies. Once they are approved for one model, the approval for others is easier.
So perhaps Model 3 Highland is built with brake-by-wire and steer-by-wire, but if necessary, Tesla can revert to more conventional steering and braking?
I do think CTD is wrong on some aspects, there is no Model 3 Highland line at Austin, My understanding the event has a tour of a line at Austin which has to be Model Y or Cybertruck.
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