Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

Haven't seen either @The Accountant or @StarFoxisDown! post lately... hope everything is alright, their input is sorely missed!

Also has anyone heard how @gene is doing following his heart surgery? I hope he's doing fine and well on his way to recovery!

 

[Tronguy]

Power steering is another matter entirely. I know you probably meant to say power brakes- but a similar situation exists for electronic, drive-by-wire steering. I believe a few manufacturers have attempted dbw steering, but abandoned it due to safety concerns. Here again the aircraft industry has taken the lead. Just a matter of time before this tech makes it way into autos.

Good catch, you're right about the Power Brakes. Sorry 'bout that.

Regarding aircraft and electrical braking: The difference between airplanes using brakes and cars using brakes has, in my opinion, a major difference: Congestion.

If an airplane lands with busted electric brakes where the default option is Max Braking, the worst that's likely going to happen is a bunch of shredded tires, not loss of the airplane and passengers.

If a car blows a fuse when surrounded by other cars at speed, max braking might not end up with wrecks rear, left, and center, but I wouldn't care to lay bets. With the current failure modes on hydraulic brakes, the default option is no braking, with effort required, one way or another, to slow down - but under the driver's control.

It's a chicken-and-egg problem: Electric brakes work fine, so long as BRAKE!!! is the default with no power. Which works fine for airplanes, but not cars in traffic. Asking for user control of electric brakes when.. well.. there's no electricity, then that's a problem.

That's why I mentioned cable braking, something that that ancient VW I mentioned happened to have. The idea is to have a completely independent stopping system, powered by human muscle and nothing else. In that VW's case, hauling on the emergency brake pulled a double ended cable laid in a pair of tubes along the length of the car; the cables ended up on one shoe each on each rear wheel. I'm suspect the German engineers who designed the VW bug were just looking for a cheap way to implement a parking brake.. but, geez, one could lose all the hydraulic brakes and that blame cable system would work anyway.

So, I have zero idea what an electric disk brake looks like. If, instead of having hydraulic pistons, electric brakes had a rod going to a lever to actuate the disk brake on one side and an actuator on the other, maybe attaching a cable in parallel with the actuator might do something positive. But that means Interesting Mechanical Engineering. Might still be cheaper.

As I said: I'm not adverse to the idea of electric brakes. It's the work-in-case-of-failure cases that give me the willies.

 

[MC3OZ]

Haven't seen either @The Accountant or @StarFoxisDown! post lately... hope everything is alright, their input is sorely missed!

Also has anyone heard how @gene is doing following his heart surgery? I hope he's doing fine and well on his way to recovery!

Gene posted here that he is fine..

 

[insaneoctane]

I think it's funny how much the Gen 3 vehicle is being referred to as "the $25K Tesla". We don't know the pricing of the Gen 3 vehicles yet! It will certainly be more affordable than the M3/MY, but the price is unannounced. It will likely be much higher than $25K for years, during the initial ramp with sky high demand and higher options/trims and margins. Seems like using the $25K phrase sets everyone up for disappointment....as investors, why would we want to encourage that? Any chance we can move away from referring to it by its unannounced price?

 

[wipster]

My apologies if this has been linked already, but Mr. MacVane makes some interesting points in this thread:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1632078542417838080

Edit: Thinking about it, a new style of wrap really really opens up the color possiblities and at an inexpensive cost/price...

 

[Tronguy]

I suspect he was talking about a power steering pump failure... in most modern vehicles it also supplies the pressure for te power brake unit attached to the master cylinder.

Nope, I was thinking of a power brake pump, just had "steering" slip in there by accident. Besides, a ton of ICE's eschew a power brake pump with an engine vacuum pump on the brakes. Either way: With those systems, if whatever is providing high pressure brake fluid fails, braking becomes harder because it's human muscle that provides the force, and, with the Master Cylinder idea, a direct (albeit hyrdaulic) connection to the brake pistons elsewhere. Which is still better than the alternative of No Brakes At All .

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think it's funny how much the Gen 3 vehicle is being referred to as "the $25K Tesla"... Any chance we can move away from referring to it by its unannounced price?

...Well, I think "K-car" is already taken.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Tmc Survey:

I have to replace a 2020 Ice Minivan for wife. (Everything is good between us and she likes Ohm My, a.k.a my Tesla now and has driven it and *sugar* her pants after hitting the go pedal)

Option A Model Y 7 seater
Option B Model X 5, 6, or 7 seater
Option C another Ice pos but has the seating and storage for long trips.

The biggest factor is luggage and seating for 5.. I have 2 weeks to decide. Is there roof storage on any Tesla?
All input is welcome.

Edit: I think Tesla will offer a minivan in the next 3 years. So if I have the misfortune of doing a 3 year Ice lease, I believe I could be a Tesla only household.

Thanks Tmc and HODL!

 

[Ogre]

I think it's funny how much the Gen 3 vehicle is being referred to as "the $25K Tesla". We don't know the pricing of the Gen 3 vehicles yet! It will certainly be more affordable than the M3/MY, but the price is unannounced. It will likely be much higher than $25K for years, during the initial ramp with sky high demand and higher options/trims and margins. Seems like using the $25K phrase sets everyone up for disappointment....as investors, why would we want to encourage that? Any chance we can move away from referring to it by its unannounced price?

I think it’s funny that the Gen 3 platform is being referred to as if it’s a single vehicle at all. Tesla was showing 2 vehicles in the wings, one is very likely some kind of van since it’s in the Cybertruck column.

Very strong chance a good chunk of Gen 3 vehicles made in Mexico will use LFP cells which do not qualify for US IRA incentives. This is doubly true with the lower budget vehicle. So Gen 3 vehicles with LFP go to Mexico, and south plus maybe Canada. In the US, maybe the Model 3 remains the base Tesla for some time. IRA incentives might bring the cost of the Model 3 LR down to $35k.

The IRA has created a very weird market in the US where Tesla’s supply of LFP cells from China have a big penalty. Making LFP vehicles for markets without IRA style incentives makes a lot of sense.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

These would still be those mysterious "spot welds" between the stamped steel and cast aluminum?

I really can't wait to see how much paint it takes to cover that up.

(for anyone who doesn't understand, you can't weld steel to aluminum)

Well, you can-just not practically for auto construction! Explosion welding is used to do so. Can't say I've worked with steel/Al explosion bonded parts, but I have a good number of copper/steel ones. Atlas Al/SS CF™ Flange - Atlas Technologies

I suspect something like this is more reasonable. Mechanical Joining

Any idea how the gigacast front and rear sections are currently jointed to the steel unibody of the Y and 3?

 

[KBF]

My apologies if this has been linked already, but Mr. MacVane makes some interesting points in this thread:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1632078542417838080

Edit: Thinking about it, a new style of wrap really really opens up the color possiblities and at an inexpensive cost/price...

The electroplating or whatever he call it sure looks unique. Not sure how 'matchable' it really is? I'm not familiar with it at all.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Good catch, you're right about the Power Brakes. Sorry 'bout that.

Regarding aircraft and electrical braking: The difference between airplanes using brakes and cars using brakes has, in my opinion, a major difference: Congestion.

If an airplane lands with busted electric brakes where the default option is Max Braking, the worst that's likely going to happen is a bunch of shredded tires, not loss of the airplane and passengers.

If a car blows a fuse when surrounded by other cars at speed, max braking might not end up with wrecks rear, left, and center, but I wouldn't care to lay bets. With the current failure modes on hydraulic brakes, the default option is no braking, with effort required, one way or another, to slow down - but under the driver's control.

It's a chicken-and-egg problem: Electric brakes work fine, so long as BRAKE!!! is the default with no power. Which works fine for airplanes, but not cars in traffic. Asking for user control of electric brakes when.. well.. there's no electricity, then that's a problem.

That's why I mentioned cable braking, something that that ancient VW I mentioned happened to have. The idea is to have a completely independent stopping system, powered by human muscle and nothing else. In that VW's case, hauling on the emergency brake pulled a double ended cable laid in a pair of tubes along the length of the car; the cables ended up on one shoe each on each rear wheel. I'm suspect the German engineers who designed the VW bug were just looking for a cheap way to implement a parking brake.. but, geez, one could lose all the hydraulic brakes and that blame cable system would work anyway.

So, I have zero idea what an electric disk brake looks like. If, instead of having hydraulic pistons, electric brakes had a rod going to a lever to actuate the disk brake on one side and an actuator on the other, maybe attaching a cable in parallel with the actuator might do something positive. But that means Interesting Mechanical Engineering. Might still be cheaper.

As I said: I'm not adverse to the idea of electric brakes. It's the work-in-case-of-failure cases that give me the willies.

Nice, I actually have a dune buggy built on a '70 VW chassis with those handbrakes.
Quite a lot of cars still use cable operated emergency/parking brakes- but even those are going heavily to push button electronic actuation.

I think if they can make electro braking safe enough for aircraft, it should be quite achievable for autos as well. I'm sure very bright engineers are working on it, complete with redundancy and failsafe features. Just like hydraulic brakes have multiple circuits for redundancy/safety.

 

[FlamingPIG]

Autoline explained the significant of the gen 3 platform assembly lines, the greatest that he witness in his career.

 

[Ogre]

My apologies if this has been linked already, but Mr. MacVane makes some interesting points in this thread:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1632078542417838080

Edit: Thinking about it, a new style of wrap really really opens up the color possiblities and at an inexpensive cost/price...

I hadn’t realized wrapping the car at the factory would be such a quick process. Almost seems like the way to go since it would get rid of the entire drying stage of the process.

 

[2daMoon]

Well, you can-just not practically for auto construction! Explosion welding is used to do so. Can't say I've worked with steel/Al explosion bonded parts, but I have a good number of copper/steel ones. Atlas Al/SS CF™ Flange - Atlas Technologies

I suspect something like this is more reasonable. Mechanical Joining

Any idea how the gigacast front and rear sections are currently jointed to the steel unibody of the Y and 3?

Granted, it could have been better stated as, "for all practical purposes aluminum isn't welded to steel in large scale production environments," but, that would have been a bit wordy. Still, thanks for the clarification.

Somewhere in the past day or two there was a YT video I watched where the presenter pointed out how these steel-aluminum attachments on a Tesla vehicle (Y, CT, ?... I can't recall) are, indeed, bolted together. They had circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back of each one explaining what each one was to be used as evidence against as. (Apologies to Arlo)

Edit: The photos were in a recent Joe Tegtmeyer video. Also, this video was referenced in Dr. Know It All's recent video.

Plus there is the whole set of issues with adjoining dissimilar metals and the reactions between them. I suspect there will be a bonding agent applied between the surfaces that creates an adhesive insulating barrier to prevent galvanic corrosion.

 

[wipster]

The electroplating or whatever he call it sure looks unique. Not sure how 'matchable' it really is? I'm not familiar with it at all.

I think he's referring to the wrap when it comes to matching and that's a valid point. And there are some awesome wraps available that could easily be matched if needed. There's one wrap that goes on black cars that is stunning! I think one of the posters here (or is it Twitter) might have it on his S and it turns it into a perlescent purple/blue that is beautiful! I wonder how easily the new colors from Berlin would be to match?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Tmc Survey:

I have to replace a 2020 Ice Minivan for wife. (Everything is good between us and she likes Ohm My, a.k.a my Tesla now and has driven it and *sugar* her pants after hitting the go pedal)

Option A Model Y 7 seater
Option B Model X 5, 6, or 7 seater
Option C another Ice pos but has the seating and storage for long trips.

The biggest factor is luggage and seating for 5.. I have 2 weeks to decide. Is there roof storage on any Tesla?
All input is welcome.

Edit: I think Tesla will offer a minivan in the next 3 years. So if I have the misfortune of doing a 3 year Ice lease, I believe I could be a Tesla only household.

Thanks Tmc and HODL!

I do not know your financial situation but if you go with Option B, plaid version, it would help all of us

 

[Ogre]

Granted, it could have been better stated as, "for all practical purposes aluminum isn't welded to steel in large scale production environments," but, that would have been a bit wordy. Still, thanks for the clarification.

Somewhere in the past day or two there was a YT video I watched where the presenter pointed out how these steel-aluminum attachments on a Tesla vehicle (Y, CT, ?... I can't recall) are, indeed, bolted together. They had circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back of each one explaining what each one was to be used as evidence against as. (Apologies to Arlo)

Plus there is the whole set of issues with adjoining dissimilar metals and the reactions between them. I suspect there will be a bonding agent applied between the surfaces that creates an adhesive insulating barrier to prevent galvanic corrosion.

He’s partly right, there are bolts. But the bolts are mostly there to set the adhesive which does 2/3 of the work holding things together.

 

[MartinAustin]

I think it's funny how much the Gen 3 vehicle is being referred to as "the $25K Tesla". We don't know the pricing of the Gen 3 vehicles yet! It will certainly be more affordable than the M3/MY, but the price is unannounced. It will likely be much higher than $25K for years, during the initial ramp with sky high demand and higher options/trims and margins. Seems like using the $25K phrase sets everyone up for disappointment....as investors, why would we want to encourage that? Any chance we can move away from referring to it by its unannounced price?

Consider General Motors, who regularly describes their upcoming Chevrolet Equinox SUV BEV as having a "$30,000" price tag. Does anyone really believe that price is before IRA tax credit? It would be $22,500 after the credit!

Much more likely a car with a $37,500 sticker price. That, if I know GM, may not have too many manufactured in that base configuration. (Ford didn't sell many $39,900 Lightnings either)

The current Model 3 is on sale for ~$42K which gets you down to ~$35K.

The new car out of Giga Mexico won't get this IRA discount. The sales price will be the real price. I can believe that since it's a dimensionally-smaller car, with a lower caliber of luxury appointments, Tesla could offer the base trim for well under $30K. Despite economies of scale afforded by offering a small number of configurations, there will definitely be at least one more trim w/ longer range. Priced in low $30K's?

Personally I don't believe the "no paint" story at present. Will it be stainless steel like the Cybertruck? (What else could it be made from and expected to last)

 

[Sparky4life]

We have discussed before whether Tesla has a 'moat.'
The ability to capitalize and build factories with the planned CAPEX efficiency Tesla is talking about sure reads like one, at least so far as the legacies are concerned.

So who is left to build all the EVs that the world wants that Tesla is not able to supply ?

Maybe at some point Tesla will start selling factory franchises.