Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MikeC]

Gary Black posted recording of Elon’s interview today, it’s in 9 sections and may not be threaded correctly:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648400527032713216

 

[capster]

The situation last year—including all the FUD and the price action culminating in the Winter’s drop to a price of a little over $100—reminds me of the Summer of 2019 as I may have mentioned.

As a reminder, the share price closed at $11.93 on June 3rd, 2019. It went on to close the year on December 30th, 2019 at $27.65 (and had closed a few days earlier at $28.73).

Food for thought.

 

[Singuy]

RIP NFLX earnings.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

RIP NFLX earnings.

Let's hope $TSLA does not follow

 

[MountainRatMat]

We've seen what I think would be called disinflation, meaning a slowing in the rate of inflation, but definitely not broader deflation (yet).

I say broader deflation because prices have definitely actually come down on some things particularly sensitive to rate hikes rather than the rate of increase merely slowing

Disinflation is a word that should be removed from our vocabulary. All it does is mislead people.

 

[Chenkers]

RIP NFLX earnings.

NFLX was down around 11.3% just after the close showing a strong reaction to earnings that didn't sound that bad. EPS of $2.88 beating estimates of $2.86 and sales of $8.16B missing estimates of $8.18B. Since then the stock has recovered a bit, now down 3%. It shows how harsh the market reaction can be to the slightest of misses. Although guidance could also be an issue even though they say they're on track to meet FY23 objectives.

 

[bkp_duke]

NFLX was down around 11.3% just after the close showing a strong reaction to earnings that didn't sound that bad. EPS of $2.88 beating estimates of $2.86 and sales of $8.16B missing estimates of $8.18B. Since then the stock has recovered a bit, now down 3%. It shows how harsh the market reaction can be to the slightest of misses. Although guidance could also be an issue even though they say they're on track to meet FY23 objectives.

Sounds like people expected a miss and were going to sell regardless. Then a little sanity afterwards.

I would not be surprised if this happens tomorrow with TSLA. A "sell the news regardless" moment.

 

[Zero CO2]

Gary Black posted recording of Elon’s interview today, it’s in 9 sections and may not be threaded correctly:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648400527032713216

(spent about 30 seconds on this and the interviewer indicates Musk is only reinventing twitter ... Musk has reinvented money, rockets, cars, trucks , fueling, energy storage , etc... all disruption is reinvention... interviewer does not get it... waste of time ) ...

Musk needs to appoint a Twitter CEO ASAP ... wasting his valuable time on a company he was forced to buy .. thru a mistake he clearly made ... twitter feels like such a tar baby ....ugh.. dealing with all these marketing/advertising clowns .. i am in a bad mood before earnings...

that could be bullish

 

[capster]

It's telling that even 10% of the SpC network is still IMO superior to any other option out there. (When factoring in locations, number of stalls, ease of use, and actually in service.)

Also, yes, there will be lines for that 10% in which owners of other EV’s will watch Teslas charging and going while they sit and wait. That will lead to conquest sales for Tesla, no?

 

[lafrisbee]

Youtube Brighter with Herbert IS CRUSHING IT RIGHT NOW

 

[lafrisbee]

I have been watching it for 30 minutes and it is entertaining and they are going over everything from every angle

 

[Singuy]

(spent about 30 seconds on this and the interviewer indicates Musk is only reinventing twitter ... Musk has reinvented money, rockets, cars, trucks , fueling, energy storage , etc... all disruption is reinvention... interviewer does not get it... waste of time ) ...

Musk needs to appoint a Twitter CEO ASAP ... wasting his valuable time on a company he was forced to buy .. thru a mistake he clearly made ... twitter feels like such a tar baby ....ugh.. dealing with all these marketing/advertising clowns .. i am in a bad mood before earnings...

that could be bullish

Yes, however my hope is that he turns twitter around into the green and then use profit to first pay off his loans and then to buy Tesla shares. Elon has acknowledged that it was his selling of Tsla shares that brought Tsla down vs it being macro/interest rates or whatever. So I do believe he will consistently buy back Tsla shares in the future using all the profit from Twitter as it will be his first private company that's profitable AND the purchase of it was linked to Tesla's valuation dump. This is how I see him making it whole as he promised to Tsla's shareholders.

 

[replicant]

Youtube Brighter with Herbert IS CRUSHING IT RIGHT NOW

Isn't he just saying "trust management"? He responds to all arguments (about possible benefits of advertising) with "but management should know" and that's it.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Sounds like people expected a miss and were going to sell regardless. Then a little sanity afterwards.

I would not be surprised if this happens tomorrow with TSLA. A "sell the news regardless" moment.

NFLX now slightly green, i will take any green tomorrow for TSLA

 

[FSDtester#1]

Sure, there are counterexamples to this, but in many sectors, deflation is already here

Agreed, I was able to load up on tons of GM, Ford, Lucid, Rivian, and Nikola at an enormous discount.

/s

 

[Optimeer]

Stretch2727, thank you very much for this link.

I conducted an analysis and came to the conclusion, that in Q2 about 75 % of all tax credits will be spoken for cars from Tesla. For this calculation, I assumed that the eligible models from Tesla will show the same growth as the eligible models from other manufacturers in Q2 compared to Q1 2023.

I created three tables. One for cars which are no more eligible for a tax credit beginning tomorrow, one for cars which are eligible for a reduced tax credit and the last one for cars which are not affected from a reduction.

There are 21 models which are no more eligible for the tax credit starting tomorrow.

Make	Model	Year	Vehicle Type	Credit Amount Vehicle placed in service after December 31, 2022, and before April 18, 2023	Credit Amount Vehicle placed in service on or after April 18, 2023	MSRP Limit
Audi	Q5 TFSI e Quattro (PHEV)	2023	PHEV	$7'500	$0	$80'000
BMW	330e	2021-2023	PHEV	$5’836	$0	$55,000
BMW	X5 xDrive45e	2021-2023	PHEV	$7’500	$0	$80,000
Genesis	Electrified GV70	2023-2024	EV	$7’500	$0	$80,000
Nissan	Leaf S	2021-2023	EV	$7’500	$0	$55,000
Nissan	Leaf S Plus	2021-2022	EV	$7’500	$0	$55,000
Nissan	Leaf SL Plus	2021-2022	EV	$7’500	$0	$55,000
Nissan	Leaf SV	2021-2022	EV	$7’500	$0	$55,000
Nissan	Leaf SV Plus	2021-2023	EV	$7’500	$0	$55,000
Rivian	R1S	2022-2023	EV	$7’500	$0	$80,000
Rivian	R1T	2022-2023	EV	$7’500	$0	$80,000
Tesla	Model 3 Long Range	2022-2023	EV	$7’500	no longer listed	$55,000
Volkswagen	ID.4	2023	EV	$7’500	$0	$80,000
Volkswagen	ID.4 AWD Pro	2023	EV	$7’500	$0	$80,000
Volkswagen	ID.4 AWD Pro S	2023	EV	$7’500	$0	$80,000
Volkswagen	ID.4 Pro	2023	EV	$7’500	$0	$80,000
Volkswagen	ID.4 Pro S	2023	EV	$7’500	$0	$80,000
Volkswagen	ID.4 S	2023	EV	$7’500	$0	$80,000
Volvo	S60 (PHEV)	2022	PHEV	$5’419	$0	$55,000
Volvo	S60 Extended Range	2022	PHEV	$7’500	$0	$55,000
Volvo	S60 T8 Recharge (Extended Range)	2023	PHEV	$7’500	$0	$55,000

Then there are 7 models which see a reduction of the credit. During Q1 2023, of these models estimated 40'000 cars were from Tesla and 15'000 cars were from other manufacturers.

Make	Model	Year	Vehicle Type	Credit Amount Vehicle placed in service after December 31, 2022, and before April 18, 2023	Credit Amount Vehicle placed in service on or after April 18, 2023	MSRP Limit	Unit sold in Q1 2023 according to my research	Outlook
Ford	E-Transit	2022-2023	EV	$7’500	$3’750	$80,000	1168
Ford	Escape Plug-In Hybrid	2022/2023	PHEV	$6’843/$6’885	$3’750	$80,000	21149 (ICE and PHEV)
Ford	Mustang Mach-E (Standard/Extended Range Battery)	2022-2023	EV	$7’500	$3’750	$80,000	5407	Targeted runrate of 210'000 by end of 2023
Jeep	Grand Cherokee 4xe	2022-2023	PHEV	$7’500	$3’750	$80,000	Total of 3473 JEEP PHEV's sold in Q1
Jeep	Wrangler 4xe	2022-2023	PHEV	$7’500	$3’750	$80,000	Total of 3473 JEEP PHEV's sold in Q1
Lincoln	Corsair Grand Touring	2022/2023	PHEV	$6'843/6'885	$3'750	$80,000	4023 ICE and PHEV
Tesla	Model 3 RWD	2022-2023	EV	$7’500	$3’750	$55,000	Model 3 SR and P: 51'718 estimate Troy Teslike	Model 3 Highland

And finally here the table with 13 models which still apply for the full tax credit. During Q1 2023, of these models estimated 111'000 cars were from Tesla and 28'500 cars were from other manufacturers.

Make	Model	Year	Vehicle Type	Credit Amount Vehicle placed in service after December 31, 2022, and before April 18, 2023	Credit Amount Vehicle placed in service on or after April 18, 2023	MSRP Limit	Unit sold in Q1 2023 according to my research	Outlook
Cadillac	Lyriq	2022-2024	EV	$7’500	$7’500	$80,000	968
Chevrolet	Blazer	2024​	EV	was not listed	$7’500	$80,000	0
Chevrolet	Bolt	2022-2023	EV	$7’500	$7’500	$55,000	19700 (Bolt and Bolt EUV)	Target for 2023: 70'000 (Bolt and Bolt EUV)
Chevrolet	Bolt EUV	2022-2023	EV	$7’500	$7’500	$55,000	19700 (Bolt and Bolt EUV)	Target for 2023: 70'000 (Bolt and Bolt EUV)
Chevrolet	Equinox	2024​	EV	was not listed	$7’500	$80,000	0	-
Chevrolet	Silverado EV	2024​	EV	$7’500	$7’500	$80,000	0	Currently over 340 fleet orders
Chrysler	Pacifica PHEV	2022-2023	PHEV (16 kWh battery)	$7’500	$7’500	$80,000	3473 Chrysler PHEV's sold in Q1
Ford	F-150 Lightning (Standard/Extended Range Battery)	2022-2023	EV	$7’500	$7’500	$80,000	4291	Targeted runrate of 150'000 by End of 2023
Lincoln	Aviator Grand Touring	2022-2023	PHEV	$6'534	$7’500	$80,000	5236 ICE and PHEV
Tesla	Model 3 Performance	2022-2023	EV	$7’500	$7’500	$55,000	Model 3 SR and P: 51'718 estimate Troy Teslike	-
Tesla	Model Y All-Wheel Drive	2022-2023	EV	$7’500	$7’500	$80,000	Model Y AWD, LR and P: 99613 (Troy Teslike)	Production at Giga Texas is currently ramping
Tesla	Model Y Long Range	2022-2023	EV	$7’500	$7’500	$80,000	Model Y AWD, LR and P: 99613 (Troy Teslike)	Production at Giga Texas is currently ramping
Tesla	Model Y Performance	2022-2023	EV	$7’500	$7’500	$80,000	Model Y AWD, LR and P: 99613 (Troy Teslike)	Production at Giga Texas is currently ramping

bullish

The next change to the credit systems happens beginning of January 2024, when Chinese batteries are no more eligible for the tax credit (but critical minerals are allowed until the beginning of 2025). I think this basically means, that the models which now receive $ 3’750 tax credit will be no more eligible. Then, north american battery factories start to pay off. I googled for the anounced battery projects of Tesla, GM and Ford and created a diagram which shows the annual runrate for each quarter if the factories ramp as expected. Only the North American battery production is shown and only the battery production which are closely related to Tesla, GM or Ford (Stellantis, Honda and others are not shown).

Regarding Tesla, the discontinuation of the tax credit for the Model 3 SR can be partly mitigated with the Model 3 Highland.

GM has quite a few batteriy projects announced. If they can execute and deliver competitive products, it looks quite ok for them.

Ford’s strategy is to use chinese LFP Batteries for the Mach-E and to some degree for the F-150 Lightning until they are produced in Michigan starting 2026. This was a great strategy in my opinion, however this is no more true with the current IRA tax system, which puts them at a disadvantage starting 2024 until their new factory is ready. Therefore I don’t expect the ramp of the Mach-E and F-150 to happen as announced, since significant production cuts in 2024 would be likely and you dont ramp a factory up for a few months only to ramp it down afterwards. I think it will difficult for Ford to later catch up to Tesla’s and and even GM’s EV production. End of the decade new emission rules could be in place in the US which require a significant proportion of EV’s of the sold cars. So Ford could be in quite a difficult situation in a few years.

(please consider that there are many assumptions in my chart and that my research was limited. I am not able to predict the future, this is just one possible outcome).

 

[ZsoZso]

Spiritual successor to the snake charger:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648227355603656706

Don't worry, Optimus will plug in your car and then deliver a frozen margarita to your robotaxi soon.

Oh, but look at that panel gap, you could almost fit the charger plug into it, no need for that door next to it

 

[Nocturnal]

For all the conspiracy theorists among us.

 

[AndrewZ]

Disinflation is a word that should be removed from our vocabulary. All it does is mislead people.

Agreed it's very misinflationary

 

[wipster]

<snip>
Food for thought.

At least you didn't say "Let that sink in."