Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggies07]

For the nerds:

This book from Kang just went on sale and is already sold out. You will notice Shirley Meng was tagged and she even said she can't wait to use it. If you watch The Limiting Factor, you know Shirley is one of Jordan's contacts that has helped him understand battery materials and dissect a 4680 cell.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1649062658451333121

You can still get the book on the publisher's site:

Electrolytes, Interfaces and Interphases

Electrolytes are indispensable components in electrochemistry and the fast-growing electrochemical energy storage markets. Research in electrolytes has wit

books.rsc.org

There is also a foreword by Jeff Dahn:

Foreword by Jeff Dahn

I have been working on lithium and lithium-ion batteries for 44 years, beginning in 1978. I was trained as a materials physicist and up until about 2008 I

books.rsc.org

I really want to get this book, but even with all my own research and with Jordan's videos, I hope it won't be TOO over my head. haha

 

[Unpilot]

This is like watching your child work so hard only to have them receive D's.

I know short term this is just noise.....but I am still pi$$ed watching this "noise" every single day for the last year!

Rant over...I feel better now.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Or Blathering as the case may be. As my darling wife likes to say to me from time to time.

Blithering - it's the hot new trend. I also used it for its connection to idiots. But that's probably enough of this blither-blather while the market is open.

 

[AndrewZ]

Tesla makes about 3k cars per day. So this inventory graph is pretty meaningless. It used to say something when production was no where near this high.

The trend and actions taken relative to that trend are where the real value comes in, you almost don't even need the absolute numbers as those are merely unique listings online and are already inherently inaccurate but can be used to form a trend that is valid as long as the basis of measurement remains constant. I'm sure Tesla employs people producing graphs like these with their own internal data, likely forecasting production against it, and uses them to inform decision-making, but they're trying to front-run what's happening while we mostly see the results.

 

[Opus BC fan]

This TSLA SP manipulation is outrageous. No news or catalysts on the immediate horizon, and down it goes.
The US government should create a regulatory agency to look at this behavior and do something.../s

As a long, I take solace in the knowledge that these Wall Street contrivances can no longer impede Tesla's growth.

Illegitimi non carborundum

 

[zecar]

This TSLA SP manipulation is outrageous. No news or catalysts on the immediate horizon and down it goes.
The US government should create a regulatory agency to look at this behavior and do something.../s

As a long, I take solace in the knowledge that these Wall Street contrivances can no longer impede Tesla's growth.

Illegitimi non carborundum

No news? It went down on Troy's numbers

 

[2daMoon]

Is there a relative pause in EV growth after the covid buying frenzy? I think we will know later in the year.

It is unclear to me what the purpose of placing the term "EV" in that sentence was for. The automotive industry as a whole is experiencing the pause you describe. Only, the electric vehicles are still gaining over legacy during this pause, are they not?

Let's look at the automotive market, historically. People buy cars all the time. There is a plethora of reasons as to why and when they buy, as well as to which car they choose. This has been consistent for over a century, with macro events causing perturbations along the way.

Regardless of whether the car is an EV or not, a number of factors have always made up the sum of reasons for selecting any particular car.
Power, efficiency, utility, functionality, ascetic aspects, and perceived value are the biggies. The current market has in the past offered gas or diesel as well, and this played a part in the decision to buy a particular model.

Now, electric has been tossed into the ring and the technology significantly reduces operational and maintenance costs compared to the chemically fueled alternatives. It allows you to "fill up" at home or while traveling, like you do with your phone. This one side of the selection equation, electric, directly improves the power, efficiency, and perceived value decision factors over the legacy vehicles. A well designed vehicle may also match or exceed the utility, functionality, and ascetic factors. The reduced maintenance cost and hassle weigh in to make the decision to buy electric an easy one.

It seems clear to most that electric is taking a bigger and bigger share of whatever auto market that will exist going forward, regardless of macro events. It is also clear that people will continue to buy or replace cars in significant numbers every year, with minor fluctuations due to macro events. Transportation is a critical aspect of life on this planet. This won't change to any significant degree.

This is a technological disruption. If you are uneducated about the historical effects of tech disruption do a search on YouTube for Tony Seba to bring yourself up to date.

 

[unk45]

All automakers have excess capacity.

Where did you get that idea? Do you have evidence?

 

[Mike Smith]

I was getting excited about when the market realizes Tesla will be a leading AI company, but then I remembered the market still hasn't even figured out that Tesla will be a leading energy company.

 

[Singuy]

This TSLA SP manipulation is outrageous. No news or catalysts on the immediate horizon, and down it goes.
The US government should create a regulatory agency to look at this behavior and do something.../s

As a long, I take solace in the knowledge that these Wall Street contrivances can no longer impede Tesla's growth.

Illegitimi non carborundum

We got 2 downgrades today, hence the price dump.

That and there are some gaps that wants to be filled. I think filling lower gaps first is bullish. If we popped after the big post ER drop just to fill the top gap then we may have to wait awhile for stock to recover. Now that the bottom gaps are being filled we can go higher later. I think the world is expecting the 146 dollar gap to be filled so we may or may not go all the way down there.

 

[Tony73]

Auke Hoekstra’s take on the IEA EV outlook

https://twitter.com/x/status/1651197266089111552

A bit more bullish one might say

EVs will probably be over 50% of China sales by q4 next year. As goes China, so goes the rest of the world.

 

[Big Time]

Hoping Tesla schedule events for this year ASAP.
Cybertruck info event.
Next gen vehicle event
Shareholder meeting.
Megapack event.
Battery day 2/4680 day


Not hard, not expensive. Give the world a taste of what’s to come, sooner than later. Other than next gen wouldn’t be any osborn effects.

I really don’t understand if cybertruck vehicle is supposed to go into production next quarter(?) we don’t have an official video teaser of the interior? Or do we and I just missed it?

Keep your heads up TMC! If anyone needs me I’ll be down in the gutter, bloody af

 

[2daMoon]

Keep your heads up TMC! If anyone needs me I’ll be down in the gutter, bloody af

This must mean you keep the spanking machine in the gutter and are doing some required maintenance.
I suppose it set up there because the gutter is where the shorts congregate?

 

[aubreymcfato]

This TSLA SP manipulation is outrageous. No news or catalysts on the immediate horizon, and down it goes.
The US government should create a regulatory agency to look at this behavior and do something.../s

As a long, I take solace in the knowledge that these Wall Street contrivances can no longer impede Tesla's growth.

Illegitimi non carborundum

I take solace in knowing that retail can still buy at discounted prices and 129k Tesla workers have access to shares at really, really good prices (10% of the lowest point in a trimester, if I recall correctly).

 

[Big Time]

This must mean you keep the spanking machine in the gutter and are doing some required maintenance.
I suppose it set up there because the gutter is where the shorts congregate?

Funny you should say that!

We’ve now attached a new Bio-Prick-Poison-Stick attachment to the paddles. Now with the new model, we can wage quasi-infinite-pseudo-biological warfare on analysts and bears alike! One poke with these bad boys and your rump will swell up, making their bowel movements very painful.

But Wait! There’s More!

Until the end of Q2, all Spanking Machines sold with the promo code “STANKYJONAS” will qualify for .000042069% off the regular inflated retail price!

Just out here doing the lords work!

Go Tesla!
Go TSLA!
…….seriously, go on GIT!

 

[Krugerrand]

So, totally off topic but I was reminded of the stacks of binders for Tesla’s Berlin factory.

The greenhouse I’ve chosen for The Mountain is made in Germany. My GC just grabbed the instruction manual from online to get a feel for assembly etc…. 109 page manual for a stickin’ greenhouse!?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

EVs will probably be over 50% of China sales by q4 next year. As goes China, so goes the rest of the world.

China has some of the toughest conditions for ICEVs. Major cities make it difficult and expensive to register a new ICEV.

If you want a new ICEV in Shanghai, you pay through the nose and have a wait.

In Shanghai, people still more than willing to pay $14,230 to get a fuel license plate

There were 182,925 bidders for 10,300 license plates for fuel vehicles this month, a winning rate of 5.8 percent.

cnevpost.com

In Shanghai in April 2022 there were 182,925 bidders for 10,300 plates (5.8% of demand) in the plate auction (yes, auction) with minimum price ~$14,230.
Shanghai also stopped offering PHEVs free plates this year so it's BEV or bust.

Other countries have financial incentives and disincentives, but at least you can easily drive an ICEV off a lot.

There are a number of barriers besides vehicle pricing that could cause markets to slam into a wall until fixed: electrical infrastructure, charging availability, charging inconvenience, charging price, stubborn fuel subsidies.

Even here in Maine, recent electricity price rises have made it cheaper to fuel an efficient HEV than an equivalent electric. And delivery prices could rise again in July as a result of botched policy . If you remove fuel taxes, with the assumption that soon EV owners will have to pay an alternative, an efficient ICEV can be cheaper to fuel than an EV. Winter is proper cold here.

The market could easily hit 50% by 2030, but that could be because the new ICEV market is shrinking, rather than simply EV growth.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Isn't your range dependent on your car's miles/kw? So if you are driving fast all the time, won't you will show less range than someone who is driving slowly?

No. that would be your range-hours.

 

[Cal1]

Hoping Tesla schedule events for this year ASAP.
Cybertruck info event.
Next gen vehicle event
Shareholder meeting.
Megapack event.
Battery day 2/4680 day


Not hard, not expensive. Give the world a taste of what’s to come, sooner than later. Other than next gen wouldn’t be any osborn effects.

I really don’t understand if cybertruck vehicle is supposed to go into production next quarter(?) we don’t have an official video teaser of the interior? Or do we and I just missed it?

Keep your heads up TMC! If anyone needs me I’ll be down in the gutter, bloody af

Yea if we could just get Elon and company to focus on real things that might actually help our current sp. So tired of the pie in the sky, long term promises that are years away at best. The lack of communication on current progress makes me worried that they don’t feel confident they can actually say anything will happen with any kind of certainty. Two weeks aside I’d be happy if they would say x or y will be finished and delivered this quarter. Tired of failed “hope to do something“ quotes.

 

[BornToFly]

Nasdaq up 1.35%. So with TSLA's beta of 2-4X we are up 3% right? Right...?