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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Where did you get that idea? Do you have evidence?
“Excess capacity” is also a meaningless concept, just as much as “Tesla sells every car they produce” has always been meaningless. In a market economy, surpluses and shortages exist only very temporarily and the main reason is usually sticky prices. In the short term, supply and demand imbalances always return to equilibrium primarily via price adjustments. For a market with inelastic supply in the short run and very elastic demand, such as the automotive manufacturing market, price is by far the main determining factor that balances it all out.

In a more nuanced look at the game theory, psychology, and friction of pricing adjustments, there are many reasons why prices can be sticky, but in general major surpluses and shortages are transient and short-lived. Car companies have high fixed costs and make it up it volume, and they also have unions and supply chain agreements based around keeping production steady. Ramping production up and down also adds operational inefficiency compared to steady output. This is why they tend to cut prices and sacrifice margins instead of cutting quantity when demand weakens. (I’m counting discounted fleet sales as an effective form of price cutting.) Inventory buffers also help, because cars conveniently have a very long shelf life without material loss of value and can simply be parked outside somewhere until someone wants to buy them, which can’t be said of many other types of goods.

This is economics 101 and it’s shocking how many investors don’t understand this.

 
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“Excess capacity” is also a meaningless concept, just as much as “Tesla sells every car they produce” has always been meaningless. In a market economy, surpluses and shortages exist only very temporarily and the main reason is usually sticky prices. Supply and demand imbalances always return to equilibrium via price adjustments. For a market with inelastic supply in the short run and very elastic demand, such as the automotive manufacturing market, price is by far the main determining factor that balances it all out.

In a more nuanced look at the game theory and psychology of pricing adjustments, there are many reasons why price can be sticky, but in general major surpluses and shortages are transient and short-lived. Car companies have high fixed costs and make it up it volume, and they also have unions and supply chain agreements based around keeping production steady. Ramping producing up and down also adds operational inefficiency compared to steady output. This is why they tend to cut prices and sacrifice margins instead of cutting quantity when demand weakens. I’m counting discounted fleet sales as an effective form of price cutting.

This is economics 101 and it’s shocking how many investors don’t understand this.

I think this is a first for me - struggling to believe this one. Tesla yes, but not other OEMs surely.
 
Yea if we could just get Elon and company to focus on real things that might actually help our current sp. So tired of the pie in the sky, long term promises that are years away at best. The lack of communication on current progress makes me worried that they don’t feel confident they can actually say anything will happen with any kind of certainty. Two weeks aside I’d be happy if they would say x or y will be finished and delivered this quarter. Tired of failed “hope to do something“ quotes.

I don't recall seeing anything in the Mission Statement or Master Plan about "helping the stock price"... 🤷‍♂️

Perhaps betting on the 'short term promises that are weeks away' and expecting to Get Rich Quick at the Casino (with a guarantee of odds in your favor) left a bad taste?

Maybe you should be discussing this disappointment with whoever sold you that bill of goods. You won't find much sympathy from HODLers.

All snideness aside, Tesla is focused on those things. Only they are threatening several of the largest groups of power players on the planet in the process. We are winning on the ground with fundamentals, but the SP fight may take some time with these entrenched players fighting tooth and nail to remain relevant. It seems unlikely that Tesla has much reason to waste resources on bolstering TSLA.

The SP should "reflect" the company, but someone has replaced the normal mirror with one of those from a carnival side-show.
 
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That reminds me . . . @MrMoo you owe me one TSLA share. I won the bet we made in this thread that AGM would remain > 18%.


I'll find a charity that you can donate the cash equivalent to.

@MrMoo - still waiting.
 
LOL. Razor thin margins that just happen to be higher than all other major car manufacturers. (I believe the exotics have a higher margin but far fewer cars)
The "problem" is Musk is too honest and forthcoming. It gives the media something to latch onto. Musk said outright they are willing to sell at no margin. Just hading the media the narrative here.

I would never seriously suggest someone being honest and forthcoming is a fault; I think it's a strength myself. But when you wear your intentions on your sleeve, it's inevitable that it ends up getting used against you.
 
This TSLA SP manipulation is outrageous. No news or catalysts on the immediate horizon, and down it goes.
The US government should create a regulatory agency to look at this behavior and do something.../s

As a long, I take solace in the knowledge that these Wall Street contrivances can no longer impede Tesla's growth.

Illegitimi non carborundum
What manipulation? Do you mean people selling their shares because Tesla's prospects look worse? There has been some pretty bad news lately:

- Odds of DOJO working going down by the way Elon described the project in the Q1 call.
- BYD saying full autonomy won't work and that they're giving up on it.
- Demand falling far short of supply - large price drops not working as well as hoped.
- Earnings cratering.
- Energy going from bigger than auto with 50% margins to bigger that auto batteries with margins at 20%. That's like a 85% drop in 2030 profitability.
- No update on Bot during the Q1 call.
- Elon getting deeper and deeper into Twitter.

I thought that the news flow was great in the first quarter with FSD progress, Mexico, Reno, Energy, Lithium refining etc. But, the news has been pretty dreary more recently.
 
This is what I was assuming is going on with people complaining about large "degradation". I went on a long road trip a few weeks ago and charged my car to 100% before leaving. Maybe this helped recalibrate the BMS estimate resulting in me only seeing 1% "degradation".

I know how to do the calculations, including rebalancing the cells, etc. with multiple depletes/charges, and others in that thread do as well. If you take the time to go through it (it's not as long as this one, LoL).
 
I don't recall seeing anything in the Mission Statement or Master Plan about "helping the stock price"... 🤷‍♂️

Perhaps betting on the 'short term promises that are weeks away' and expecting to Get Rich Quick at the Casino (with a guarantee of odds in your favor) left a bad taste?
guilty here - I was so getting used short financed toys like my p3d that i lost gambling over and over again like an idiot. Should have sold covered calls for the last 12 months. I bet once I do it turns around. So the real answer is bite the bullet, quit options and margin and just HODL
 
guilty here - I was so getting used short financed toys like my p3d that i lost gambling over and over again like an idiot. Should have sold covered calls for the last 12 months. I bet once I do it turns around. So the real answer is bite the bullet, quit options and margin and just HODL
Please go ahead and sell those calls then! 😜
 
what makes it more infuriating is Nasdaq up is based on MSFT and AI ambitions ... TSLA with 0 recognition for real world AI ...
I'd not despair.

Tesla's AI is literally 'zero known' AI outside of Tesla and close AI circles.

One can use ChatGPT and several other AI engines. There have been news left and right about the doom of humans due to the development of AI. Zero mentions of Tesla AI.

The average Joe does not know that the FSD exists due to AI. Same applies to Optimus and Dojo.

There has been zero publicity for Tesla Real World AI that the mob would understand and/or see.
 
What?
We are talking about the call where they mention selling access to DOJO similar to AWS, right?
I could be reading too much into Elon's comment but it seemed to me he is now a little less optimistic about DOJO working: from the Q1 call "I'm not sure I fully understand your question, but I'd look at Dojo as like kind of a long-shot bet, but if it's a long-shot bet that pays off, it will pay off in a very, very big way." IIRC his most recent previous comment on DOJO working was that it had a 50/50 chance. Long-shot is below 50/50. The longer we go without success in this project the longer the odds get against it working. We have very capable, motivated competition in this field not some bloated legacy car company.