Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dhanson865]

Did Optimus get a job at a fast food joint already?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Did Optimus get a job at a fast food joint already?

looks like they're using Siri

driver : "I'd like a hamburger, fries, and a shake"
bot : "here's some information about bow ties"

 

[2daMoon]

Time will tell. I have been thinking Tesla and Elon have been making good progress in this area. I have a suspicion that the timeline for delivery (of things Tesla) is shorter than we are being told. Time will tell if my hunch is correct or if I'm suffering from delusions...

Is there any reason to rule out the possibility of both?

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Awesome summary

Only thing I have doubts is that they will add Silicon to 4680s V2, I’m 50/50 on it

And if they add, will be a tiny fraction, you have to be really careful with that, as any screw up and your cell cycle life goes down the drain

What happens is that with every charging and discharge cycle, Silicon expands and contracts by a lot, so your solid electrolyte interface (SEI) cracks and reforms, but it gets thicker and thicker, and the SEI consumes lithium, so you are converting active lithium that it’s what gives the cell its energy storage into inactive lithium

But even if they don’t go for it, 4680 V2 have a taller jelly roll and DBE on both anode and cathode, so that will already increase energy by a few percentual points certainly reaching 90 Wh per cell or even kissing 100 Wh

The good thing is that none of that is needed for a 500 miles Cybertruck, and with Elon saying it surpasses expectations, I would be pretty disappointed if while other things were better, they walk back on range, which is one of the most talked about features

All this talk about 4680 is great, except for the fact we don't even know if they can make DBE work efficiently, ever.

Right now their yields are poor, so much so they can barely make anything off their V2 line in Austin, and we are nearing 3 years since Battery Day.

They are still hiring external DBE experts because they may be stuck. High volume production is hard, I heard.

4680 is at least 1 year behind schedule already, and burning a hole through Tesla's financials. We are essentially banking on 4680 converting a Hail Mary to produce anywhere near positive margins to have a chance to grow volumes later half of this year and 2024. Its not a slam dunk.

Meanwhile, people were thinking Drew Baglino could be next CEO? The battery factory of sadness is an embarrassment, I'd bet it more likely he is fired than made CEO.

 

[skybluecgreen]

Fallen Angels : IBD Tesla from 24.50 other similar patterns from leaders ISRG, NFLX , CMG , AMZN

11 to 14 months down and 10 to 14 months to return back to new highs

Charles Harris: Playbook For The Next Raging Bull & For Today | Trader Tales With IBD | Alissa Coram

This week on "Trader Tales with IBD," Charles Harris of O'Neil Global Advisors details his trading playbook for the current environment and how to stay ahea...

www.youtube.com

I'm behind on the thread but this is well worth watching. He spends 10 minutes on TSLA starting at that 24.50. But even the first 24 minutes are worth watching as he explains why it is possible that a new bull market has begun.

I worked at O'Neil for 30 years and the 'momentum' philosophy doesn't go over well here but along with chart analysis, there is a lot of common sense and understanding of human behaior based on history that goes into it.

 

[Ogre]

Except it won't work. There has to be challenge and a purpose for humans to exist.

That’s why social media was invented.

 

[ToTheStars]

All this talk about 4680 is great, except for the fact we don't even know if they can make DBE work efficiently, ever.

Right now their yields are poor, so much so they can barely make anything off their V2 line in Austin, and we are nearing 3 years since Battery Day.

They are still hiring external DBE experts because they may be stuck. High volume production is hard, I heard.

4680 is at least 1 year behind schedule already, and burning a hole through Tesla's financials. We are essentially banking on 4680 converting a Hail Mary to produce anywhere near positive margins to have a chance to grow volumes later half of this year and 2024. Its not a slam dunk.

Meanwhile, people were thinking Drew Baglino could be next CEO? The battery factory of sadness is an embarrassment, I'd bet it more likely he is fired than made CEO.

I like your contrarian view, but I don't like the way you bring it, therefore I gave you a dislike.

 

[nativewolf]

Neighbor's wife works for Ford. He told me several months ago, way before they split the finances out, that they would split and folks would choose their preference based on how much they want to transfer into the new. But my gut says they won't attempt this until the EV side looks like it has a chance. Maybe that's why they just started publishing the data vs actually splitting shares quite yet.

Yep, it has been clearly set out as a plan. Executing a difficult corporate restructure while keeping customers, employees, govt, suppliers, etc all happy is difficult. Just as EM about Twitter.

Ford has already started building all the new plants and battery factories. I'd guess they wait til 2025 when those are all done, gives them 2 years to get to a decent run rate, they'll be competing in energy services too by then if I am reading tea leaves correctly. Then, they split company. New co shares go crazy-no dividend. Old co shares have dividend and little growth. Again, at least Ford has a plan. The risk to me is the guts of the EV, the car as a computer. That's the sort of level that is hard for Ford. Anyway, we'll all see what happens.

 

[nativewolf]

All this talk about 4680 is great, except for the fact we don't even know if they can make DBE work efficiently, ever.

Right now their yields are poor, so much so they can barely make anything off their V2 line in Austin, and we are nearing 3 years since Battery Day.

They are still hiring external DBE experts because they may be stuck. High volume production is hard, I heard.

4680 is at least 1 year behind schedule already, and burning a hole through Tesla's financials. We are essentially banking on 4680 converting a Hail Mary to produce anywhere near positive margins to have a chance to grow volumes later half of this year and 2024. Its not a slam dunk.

Meanwhile, people were thinking Drew Baglino could be next CEO? The battery factory of sadness is an embarrassment, I'd bet it more likely he is fired than made CEO.

I think Drew should be fired. The 4680 has, to date, been a complete flop. They bet the company on this and would have been years ahead if 6 years ago they'd gone a different route and invested in more 2170 and alternative form structures for LFP to enable the energy side to keep growing. Energy's lack of growth, before pandemic, during pandemic, is, when peeled back, all about battery constraints and the lack of solutions.

 

[nativewolf]

I like your contrarian view, but I don't like the way you bring it, therefore I gave you a dislike.

Except he's just being honest and Tesla investors would be wise to understand that the 4680 ramp to date is not supporting explosive CT sales. The batteries just have not shown up yet. Nice to see the continued investments and all but the DBE seems to be a real issue.

 

[Mengy]

I think Drew should be fired. The 4680 has, to date, been a complete flop. They bet the company on this and would have been years ahead if 6 years ago they'd gone a different route and invested in more 2170 and alternative form structures for LFP to enable the energy side to keep growing. Energy's lack of growth, before pandemic, during pandemic, is, when peeled back, all about battery constraints and the lack of solutions.

I disagree the 4680 has been a "complete flop".

This is a new battery technology, a new way to manufacture batteries, and that is why development has hit hiccups along the way and is very much behind schedule. The delayed progress does not diminish the ultimate goal however, which is to have a very economical battery production line capable of very high output. That is important.

When Tesla stated its goals to manufacture 500,000 EV's per year by 2020 most experts laughed at them and thought Tesla was crazy setting impossible goals like that. Ambitious goals are why Tesla is so far ahead of everyone else today. Sure Tesla often hits the mark behind their own deadlines, but Tesla has a solid track record of still hitting those goals in time.

The 4680 is behind schedule and people are now claiming it's a "huge flop", but what if they still solve the issues in the near future and the 4680 then becomes the (delayed) success Tesla wants it to be? Will the current naysayers then admit they were wrong? Will it still be a "complete flop" even if the 4680 takes off a few years behind schedule?

 

[Speedr117]

I think Drew should be fired. The 4680 has, to date, been a complete flop. They bet the company on this and would have been years ahead if 6 years ago they'd gone a different route and invested in more 2170 and alternative form structures for LFP to enable the energy side to keep growing. Energy's lack of growth, before pandemic, during pandemic, is, when peeled back, all about battery constraints and the lack of solutions.

Yep, just like FSD, everyone should be fired for not hitting a timeline on complete new technology that has never been done before /s!!!!

I think looking at the results of other battery manufacturers' (outside of China) production ramp should illustrate how hard it is to get a new battery factory up and running...and that's using EXISTING technology!

 

[jamaatta]

I guess they are building a carhode plant just for fun. As well as a lithium refinery. "A complete flop." /s

 

[2daMoon]

What was it someone said about how Tesla (or SpaceX?) always delivers the impossible, late?

Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

The mere fact is that Tesla is doing 4680 development, and pioneering Dry Battery tech ahead of the veteran battery companies, and that no other auto OEMs are even working on such improvements. This is a testament to how they draw the line in the sand well over the horizon from where others are even looking.

 

[Skryll]

A job does not define a human. Challenge and purpose can be found elsewhere.

Church?

 

[scaesare]

Did Optimus get a job at a fast food joint already?

And they're asking folks to teach it improper grammar...

Although, given it will need to interact with the public at large, which also largely uses incorrect grammar, they probably have little choice.

 

[Singuy]

Except he's just being honest and Tesla investors would be wise to understand that the 4680 ramp to date is not supporting explosive CT sales. The batteries just have not shown up yet. Nice to see the continued investments and all but the DBE seems to be a real issue.

Interested to see what you mean by "not supporting explosive CT sales".

Keep in mind 250k is a run rate of 5k/week of production

500k is 10k/week run rate.

The most popular truck in the world has a MSRP of 33k. The 40k 250 mile range of the CT is the least popular pre ordered model

CT is not supported in the EU and truck sales in China is questionable.

So basically a guide of 500k/year run rate is only meant for NA which is where the Model Y sits right now for NA.

Perhaps just because you see over 1 million pre-orders over 4 years time = 1 million orders per year and Tesla is under producing?

So I am interested what you mean by DBE is hindering CT's growth based on their guide.

 

[Hock1]

Or just check inventories and deliveries.

Maybe you can tell me---what is the difference between inventory and "leftover" inventory? /s

 

[JoRoMo]

I think Drew should be fired. The 4680 has, to date, been a complete flop. They bet the company on this and would have been years ahead if 6 years ago they'd gone a different route and invested in more 2170 and alternative form structures for LFP to enable the energy side to keep growing. Energy's lack of growth, before pandemic, during pandemic, is, when peeled back, all about battery constraints and the lack of solutions.

From Battery Day:
«Elon Musk: (02:35:03)
I mean, 0.420%, of course. So what this enables us to do is achieve a new trajectory in the reduction of cell cost. And now to be clear, it will take us probably a year to 18 months to start realizing these advantages and to fully realize the advantages probably it’s about three years or thereabouts.»

That was about two and a half years ago and a bit, I am not so sure his thereabouts prediction is sure to be that far off, as predictions go…

 

[SPadival]

Musk has said on multiple occasions that Universal Basic Income (UBI) is probably necessary at some point.

Funding that is going to have to come from the profits of successful enterprise.

Maybe that’s not a per-bot tax, but effect is eventually the same.

Probably was his last interview with CNBC before the one with Faber