Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[insaneoctane]

Kind of too late. Several here raised their hands and sold on the way down to $100. You know for bloody sure, a much larger percentage of less conviction retail shareholders capitulated.

I learned that painful lesson in hindsight having sold some TSLA in 2013 and 2014. Stupid, stupid, stupid. Very.

 

[SmokyPeat]

There was a "bot leak" livestream that has now been taken down due to connecting the dot wanting to do some editing(his mic was coming in and out). I didn't listen to it much due to it being excruciating to listen to(felt like it was dragged on). However the rumor was there were some people familiar with the matter saying there are "many bots" at the Tesla gigafactory in Austin, some were put to work. Employees found them pretty creepy during night shift.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1677053831157370880

I'd say there's about a zero percent chance that there are currently Optimus bots doing useful work at the Austin gigafactory. Lots of bots there, just not in bipedal form.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

There was a "bot leak" livestream that has now been taken down due to connecting the dot wanting to do some editing(his mic was coming in and out). I didn't listen to it much due to it being excruciating to listen to(felt like it was dragged on). However the rumor was there were some people familiar with the matter saying there are "many bots" at the Tesla gigafactory in Austin, some were put to work. Employees found them pretty creepy during night shift.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1677053831157370880

I listened to the beginning and it's a complete time waste. "Many bots" means nothing and the guy providing the "leaks" is giving third hand info, but to spice it up he uses an "avatar" to hide his identity and protect the "leakers". Click bait nonsense. Nothing substantive and I now know to pay no attention to anything further coming from Herbert.

 

[Singuy]

I listened to the beginning and it's a complete time waste. "Many bots" means nothing and the guy providing the "leaks" is giving third hand info, but to spice it up he uses an "avatar" to hide his identity and protect the "leakers". Click bait nonsense. Nothing substantive and I now know to pay no attention to anything further coming from Herbert.

Well it's not Herbert providing the info, bet he was expecting something more substantial. That awkward moment when CTD asked how many bots they are expecting, both people say 100...but then CTD said there are "many bots"...haha the disappointment that follows was cringeworthy..lol.

That's pretty much when I turned it off.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'd say there's about a zero percent chance that there are currently Optimus bots doing useful work at the Austin gigafactory. Lots of bots there, just not in bipedal form.

I'd say there's a non-zero chance based on past demos, and time. Looking forward to some basic operations at least. If not now, soon.
A night shift worker says "they're creepy". Coming from a factory, that sounds genuine. For us, the creepier the better.

Could you imagine working next to one, maybe while it watches you and learns someday? I hope the Sups and workers are mentally prepared. Just knowing they're coming to take your job would be serious motive for some resistance. I believe there will be a strike somewhere, maybe not Tesla, but people will act just like today's Actors and Writers - over AI and pay which is already happening.

I do expect a hint of progress soon. After all, I have my Burnt Hair.

 

[winfield100]

Sales tax on each trade _share_/derivitive/etc would do it.

FTFY

 

[Cosmacelf]

So, assuming Jordan’s deep dive into lithium mining is correct, Tesla has a constraint against growing 50% YoY, right?

Not so fast. If you look at Tesla 50% YoY revenue growth (which is what matters for stock price) as opposed to unit vehicle growth, Tesla has quite a few revenue options even with lithium supply constraints.

First, the $25K car will use less lithium (smaller battery), but that decreases revenue, but then see below.

Second, Teslabot. IF Tesla pulls off humanoid robot use cases, Teslabot is a $500K value machine which uses a tiny amount of lithium (it’s battery pack will be on the order of 10 kWh). Tesla will rent these out for $10/hr and make tons of revenue using very little lithium per revenue dollar.

Third, of course, is robotaxi. The same amount of lithium per vehicle will now generate 2x or 5x or whatever revenue since Tesla will get taxi revenue.

If I’m correct, this is all classic Elon. He sees an unavoidable bottleneck in 3-5 years and comes up with a way to keep growing even with that unavoidable constraint. He did it brilliantly with SpaceX (he was going to hit a revenue ceiling with launches, so he created Starlink which uses tons more launch and pays for itself).

So, while Jordan’s lithium forecast may very well be right, Tesla will keep growing fast despite it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

My 2030 prediction is $1T-18T.
Your Milage May Vary.

AJ, dat u?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Those practices should have been illegal and from time to time have been. In the US the Glass Steagall act repeal, coupled with the DTC eventually producing instant trading has eliminated the rails. Please think about all that when considering joining ‘the dark side’.

Nominated for "Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit". Thank-you!

 

[GhostSkater]

There was a "bot leak" livestream that has now been taken down due to connecting the dot wanting to do some editing(his mic was coming in and out). I didn't listen to it much due to it being excruciating to listen to(felt like it was dragged on). However the rumor was there were some people familiar with the matter saying there are "many bots" at the Tesla gigafactory in Austin, some were put to work. Employees found them pretty creepy during night shift.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1677053831157370880

That is most Connecting The Dots content, enough hype to get you to watch without any substance, and when criticized about it he wastes even more of your time with page longs replies explaining why it's like that

Herbert is nice when he gets good people there, such as James Douma, but the name Brighter With Herbert is really ironic with some of the stuff he says and asks lol

 

[Artful Dodger]

Sales tax on each trade would do it.

There is a sales tax on the U.S. equity trades, in the form of an SEC fee (currently $8 per $1M sold).

What is SEC & FINRA Trading Activity Fee (TAF)? | Baraka​

Market Makers are exempt from this 'per-transaction' fee for their own proprietary trading. Instead, MMs have negotiated fixed monthly SEC fees which allows MMs and Hedge funds to conduct high-frequency trading w/o any additional financial cost (legalizing manipulation).

 

[UkNorthampton]

I'd say there's a non-zero chance based on past demos, and time. Looking forward to some basic operations at least. If not now, soon.
A night shift worker says "they're creepy". Coming from a factory, that sounds genuine. For us, the creepier the better.

Could you imagine working next to one, maybe while it watches you and learns someday? I hope the Sups and workers are mentally prepared. Just knowing they're coming to take your job would be serious motive for some resistance. I believe there will be a strike somewhere, maybe not Tesla, but people will act just like today's Actors and Writers - over AI and pay which is already happening.

I do expect a hint of progress soon. After all, I have my Burnt Hair.

If I was a Sup/worker and I had Tesla options, I'd look forward to an early retirement, but short-medium term might be difficult.

 

[insaneoctane]

There is a sales tax on the U.S. equity trades, in the form of an SEC fee (currently $8 per $1M sold).

What is SEC & FINRA Trading Activity Fee (TAF)? | Baraka​

Market Makers are exempt from this 'per-transaction' fee for their own proprietary trading. Instead, MMs have negotiated fixed monthly SEC fees which allows MMs and Hedge funds to conduct high-frequency trading w/o any additional financial cost (legalizing manipulation).

I know we've discussed this before. But, anything to deter the manipulation. My thought centers around frequent small splits. I'd like to suggest 1.1:1, later followed by 1:1.1 to return things to where they were. I don't know how frequent Tesla could do this without honest accounting chaos, but something since the SEC isn't going to do their job.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, assuming Jordan’s deep dive into lithium mining is correct...

It's not. Jordan's thesis is based upon the flimsiest logic that refining will outstrip mining, an unexamined premise only rooted to analogies to the past. Who do I trust to have more current inside information on the Lithium supply chain, Elon or Jordan? No, I think Jordan has gone over to the dark-green side, and instead of 'chasing the algorithm' on Youtube he's now 'pandering to patreons' for his income. Where else have we seen that go bad?

 

[Knightshade]

I know we've discussed this before. But, anything to deter the manipulation. My thought centers around frequent small splits. I'd like to suggest 1.1:1, later followed by 1:1.1 to return things to where they were. I don't know how frequent Tesla could do this without honest accounting chaos, but something since the SEC isn't going to do their job.

Didn't the last split being an utter nothingburger finally put the nail in the coffin of "splits F the shorts in the A" speculation?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I know we've discussed this before. But, anything to deter the manipulation. My thought centers around frequent small splits. I'd like to suggest 1.1:1, later followed by 1:1.1 to return things to where they were. I don't know how frequent Tesla could do this without honest accounting chaos, but something since the SEC isn't going to do their job.

Yeah, that's only worked the first time. WallE has adjusted now. Retail Brokers just ignore the FTDs, mostly likely (IMO) off-shoring those phantom shares in those occasional $5B chunks seen in Dark Pool reporting. There is so little transparency in the outstanding share count, this issue BEGS for some Block-Chain technology...

 

[Captkerosene]

I listened to the beginning and it's a complete time waste. "Many bots" means nothing and the guy providing the "leaks" is giving third hand info, but to spice it up he uses an "avatar" to hide his identity and protect the "leakers". Click bait nonsense. Nothing substantive and I now know to pay no attention to anything further coming from Herbert.

Herbert did a nice video today with Tasha K. Ark needs to update their models to include Bot. She thought that FSD/RT was easier than getting bot running ... which I think is wrong. Bot will beat RT to market IMO. If you think about it, RT is replacing a chauffeur and Bot is replacing a factory worker (initially). Both have a similar value but the Bot is far easier to produce and train.

 

[MP3Mike]

We have it already in Europe: 13 EUR a month subscription for foreign brands to get the same price per kWh as a Tesla owner, otherwise 10-12% higher price. Likely Tesla will do something similar in the US.

They do already do that in the US at their MagicDock sites. But it has already been stated that customers of OEMs that adopt the NACS inlet will pay exactly the same price as Tesla owners. No monthly fee or markup.

 

[JoRoMo]

They do already do that in the US at their MagicDock sites. But it has already been stated that customers of OEMs that adopt the NACS inlet will pay exactly the same price as Tesla owners. No monthly fee or markup.

Source? I do not think that is a precise quote (nor a necessary interpretation of what has actually been stated by the parties themselves).

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:
FSD discussion 11.4.5 going out to employees
Launch is Imminent Cybertruck price speculation

Spaces schedule

https://twitter.com/x/status/1678041677414400000

Omar leading TSLA deep dive on Tuesday. They are not “must watch” but some will enjoy.