Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

No touch FSD coming soon:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679705166831050752

 

[Big Earl]

Just saw 8 chargers (still plastic-wrapped) that look a day or two away from opening in my medium sized NE Georgia college town (home of the 2x defending football champs). The location is right next to the new REI and this addition doubles the number of Tesla stalls and charging spots. Very exciting as this location is very close to me and we are soon to be (Cybertruck pending) a two-Tesla household and only have a one-stall garage with one charger.

Please start a new thread in the Southeast region Supercharger forum. We’d like to get this added to supercharge.info. Thanks!

 

[Baumisch]

This Zeekr 001, despite the flagrant plagiarism of the Tesla UI, seems like quite a reasonable deal for the price.

100 kWh battery and what seems like decent build quality / materials for 60K Euro. Vehicles with similar battery capacity from Tesla or MB are +/- 40K Euro more expensive (as a rough comparison).

Unsure about their production capacity, but they are a subsidiary of Geely, akin to Polestar.

Autogefuhl gives an overview of the vehicle (don't mind the thumbnail title, video is Tesla-neutral):

Zeekr 001 initial overview - Autogefuhl

WOW - do we have any idea if Zeekr can do this profitably and on scale?
And do we have a feeling if Model S is more expensive to produce?

From looking at the Zeekr it doesn't seam to be obviously trimmed for cheap production as the Model S seams to be (no stalks, no "luxury" stuff etc. ..)?

 

[KBF]

<snip>
It can definitely be a land of extremes, especially in the prairies! But that might smooth out too, I'm not sure how it would all be expected to work out.

Nothing like going from -40 Celsius to +40 in the same year.

This is (mostly) why I'm moving away from Manitoba to the mildest climate in Canada - Vancouver Island; I'm sick of massive temperature swings (and 5-6 months of winter).

Looking forward to being outside every single day, hiking my backyard forest trails...

Thank you, TSLA.

 

[jerry33]

This is (mostly) why I'm moving away from Manitoba to the mildest climate in Canada - Vancouver Island; I'm sick of massive temperature swings (and 5-6 months of winter).

Looking forward to being outside every single day, hiking my backyard forest trails...

Thank you, TSLA.

Just bring your raincoat.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Yeah, he's not going to raise $40-odd B buy selling $100/mth subscriptions to a million folks - that's IPO-level money.

Elon could IPO up to 49% of starlink (assuming it is structured as a separate company) and retain control if SpaceX owns the other 51% while Elon retains vote control in SpaceX. Bernard Arnault used the same method to raise cash to make many of his purchases of luxury companies.

I don't know what starlink is valued at but I could see it being worth far more as a public company.

 

[hobbes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679553275492995072

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

I think Tesla is calling China‘s authorities bluff - big time.

China has been dragging its feet particularly badly lately in approving/supporting Tesla shanghai expansion plans, in what looks like a blatant attempt to shore up locally owned EV manufacturers.

Now that is coming home to roost as Tesla appears to be ramping up negotiating efforts in many other countries around the world to set up new manufacturing plants. Todays leak out of India is the worst case scenario for China, as India is fighting to become a major exporter, replacing China for as many western owned brands as possible (who are attracted to India partly due to low labour costs, but also for the far less geo-political risk India carries). Apple is already growing its outsourced manufacturing & supply chain operations there, and the more large international firms join the effort the more valid the country becomes as an option.

India carries lower geopolitical risk, but much higher general internal risks, due to internal political volatility. Many manufacturers have had to walk away from ambitious developments in India due to corruption, sabotage and terrorism. Chose the state wisely. Tamil Nadu would possibly be best (Home to successful Suzuki and Renault plants. Also the iconic Royal Enfield ! I commuted to work in Chennai on a Classic 500 for a short period in 2020 (madness).

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:
Cyberquad for kids Relaunched in China and re-selling for 5x RRP
V2G in a robotaxi world Cybertruck, gen 3 or never?

There are a number of items stacking up:

19th July - earnings - $0.90 +/-0.1?
End July? - Starship flight 2 - orbital
August? - Highland sales begin
August? - hands of FSD + ASS
15th Sep - quarterly LEAP expiry
End Sep? - Cybertruck delivery event (including Cyberquad plus other 48V accessories)

Could Highland sales launch on Cybertruck day?

And finally overhang complete following Elon change of professional status:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679782334831247361

 

[unk45]

WOW - do we have any idea if Zeekr can do this profitably and on scale?
And do we have a feeling if Model S is more expensive to produce?

From looking at the Zeekr it doesn't seam to be obviously trimmed for cheap production as the Model S seams to be (no stalks, no "luxury" stuff etc. ..)?

Nearly all Geely vehicles are pretty well equipped. Their shared platforms between brands let them indulge their passion for brand profusion at much lower cost. That plan, I’m told, spawned from Volvo logic, allowing Polestar launch with modest Capex. Zeeker fit in with the larger Volvo, Geely models. So far the major non-common-platform is LEVC which itself is gradually expanding the London Taxi roots to other commercial-style vehicles for the group.
They and several parts are profitable, while several parts go public to help fund their total BEV transitions.

I would not buy their shares, but did buy a Volvo, which improves with every software update, rather similar to the Tesla 2015 very rapid progress with, inter ali, Autopilot.

Given their model profusion they might be the anti-Tesla.

 

[scaesare]

No touch FSD coming soon:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679705166831050752

Well, it's not really "no touch" that's being suggested, it's "no nag". It's still possible that the system will still confirm you to have your hands on the wheel via camera, as the Tweet mentions.

 

[scaesare]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679553275492995072

Interesting. The tweet asks if the statement that a CT has "enough power to charge a Tesla" implied bidirectional capability on the CT.

While that could be, we also know the CT will have power outlets, so it could simply be that.

 

[Stretch2727]

69% market share in US:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679695063696416769

YTD was 69%.

But Q2 was 60%....Have not done the math but that means Q1 was close to 80%?

 

[petit_bateau]

India carries lower geopolitical risk, but much higher general internal risks, due to internal political volatility. Many manufacturers have had to walk away from ambitious developments in India due to corruption, sabotage and terrorism. Chose the state wisely. Tamil Nadu would possibly be best (Home to successful Suzuki and Renault plants. Also the iconic Royal Enfield ! I commuted to work in Chennai on a Classic 500 for a short period in 2020 (madness).

India has a lot of suitors, some of whom may have more dowry ... in a way that is politically acceptable to the bribe-seekers

Exclusive: BYD proposes $1 billion India plan to build EVs, batteries

China's BYD Co has submitted a $1 billion investment proposal to build electric cars and batteries in India in partnership with a local company, three people with direct knowledge of the plan told Reuters.

www.reuters.com

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Now that all the other charge providers are switching to NACS, I'm not smart enough to know what benefits Tesla more:

1. Tesla getting the NEVI funding to effectively subsidize the cost to build some supercharger stations...but have a few government strings attached. Or
2. Tesla makes superchargers exactly how and where they want to, at their own cost. Other charging networks get the NEVI funding to build additional stations, taking some of the load off of superchargers and overall expanding the EV charging world.

On DCFC, the main thing for Tesla is that NEVI now isn't a huge loss for them. NEVI is a lot of money that would add to what Dieselgate and other programs have already done and are doing in building charging infrastructure, and NEVI is in fact well-defined, with rules on uptime, access and interoperability that fix a lot of the existing problems.

But still, the risks involved meant that Ford jumped to NACS and others have now followed.

But I also think that the unification could improve AC charging access through AC plug and charge.

 

[petit_bateau]

YTD was 69%.

But Q2 was 60%....Have not done the math but that means Q1 was close to 80%?

The Cox maths is/was wrong, YTD was 60% not 69%.

So implies both Q1 and Q2 at 60%

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679744884469530624

 

[Buckminster]

Well, it's not really "no touch" that's being suggested, it's "no nag". It's still possible that the system will still confirm you to have your hands on the wheel via camera, as the Tweet mentions.

I think that holding the wheel is unlikely. Omar and others tend to keep their hands off the wheel. Makes for a better video and Elon will be keen on that. Remember he thinks fsd will come out of beta this year so no hands is a solid step in that direction. At that point having hands on the wheel will only complicate insurance accountability.

 

[2daMoon]

And finally overhang complete following Elon change of professional status:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679782334831247361

HA!

So it IS "just a car company" after all.

/s

 

[scaesare]

I think that holding the wheel is unlikely. Omar and others tend to keep their hands off the wheel. Makes for a better video and Elon will be keen on that. Remember he thinks fsd will come out of beta this year so no hands is a solid step in that direction. At that point having hands on the wheel will only complicate insurance accountability.

It may be. But that's not what the tweet suggested, nor what Elon confirmed, so clarifying.

 

[SPadival]

Threads of the day:
Cyberquad for kids Relaunched in China and re-selling for 5x RRP
V2G in a robotaxi world Cybertruck, gen 3 or never?

There are a number of items stacking up:

19th July - earnings - $0.90 +/-0.1?
End July? - Starship flight 2 - orbital
August? - Highland sales begin
August? - hands of FSD + ASS
15th Sep - quarterly LEAP expiry
End Sep? - Cybertruck delivery event (including Cyberquad plus other 48V accessories)

Could Highland sales launch on Cybertruck day?

And finally overhang complete following Elon change of professional status:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679782334831247361

Uncle Gary tweets out a list like this and calls them catalysts … yet nothing happened to the SP