Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dreadnought]

Unfortunately I went to Hotel California.

I tried to check out many times, but I could never leave.

Sounds tough. Maybe it helps if you write a song about it.

 

[Xepa777]

"Not at first" means what, exactly?

There are probably 2M pre-orders for the CT. If half of them bow out (for any reason) that likely leaves a million who will then decide whether or not what is offered is acceptable. My guess is that most of those left at that point will take delivery. I know I will.

So, four or more years to ramp to full capacity and work through the number of CTs which are already reserved. All before this "at first" period you describe has passed and the "early adopters" have finished grazing?

What you are concerned about is this new Chevy Silverado hurting CT sales "in time" which places that time at a point between four and seven years in the future.

A lot can happen in that amount of time.

assuming everyone ordered the same spec, which they did not.

Influencers ordering for clout + FSD arbitragers + people buying for robotaxi fleets + as a joke + whatever reason = some %

People ordering tri motor + 40k single motor = 50%

People ordering and moved on after 4 years = some %

People ordering either expectations of a certain feature that it no longer has (like 6 seater) = some %

Some % of those above overlap, but that overlap isn’t anywhere close to 100%.

Your argument is either (1) intentionally disengenuous or (2) absent of any level of critical thinking

 

[Artful Dodger]

LOL...I'll believe it when i see it and if GM can actually make a profit selling this. I can see it already, "GM is preparing to launch it's Cybertruck killer, watch out Tesla.....coming in 2026" By Luc Olinga/Al Root

Yeah i wouldn't be worried:
View attachment 956915

GM doesn't have the battery supply to build Blazar (or Silverado) in volume. It's a compliance car, wrapped in a marketing campaign, inside an enima.

 

[Buckminster]

Tesla have a problem with many customers locked into their FSD enabled vehicle. This will get solved soon with one or more of these:

• Upgrade to CT - 2025
• Downgrade to gen 3 - 2026
• Significant H/W4 improvement - 2025
• FSD level 4 reached
  • FSD valued in used car market - 2024
  • Retire vehicle to Tesla Network - 2025

 

[jkirkwood001]

80% of the reason I made a reservation was the 500 mile range. 350 miles adds nothing to the current X.

Really?? How about:

• Cargo bed
• Cargo ramp
• Bullet-proof shell
• Independent suspension adjustment
• Lower cost-to-build and price (forecast)
• Kick-ass, jaw-dropping design
• Etc.

Stop being myopic. Sounds like too many people are in the "I've got special requirements (towing long distances), so the design is a failure" camp, IMHO. You're a minority who feels entitled. Boo hoo.

All this retracted if you'd just said "adds nothing for me" so I could easily ignore towards our general opinion on CT design.

 

[winfield100]

assuming everyone ordered the same spec, which they did not.

Influencers ordering for clout + FSD arbitragers + people buying for robotaxi fleets + as a joke + whatever reason = some %

People ordering tri motor + 40k single motor = 50%

People ordering and moved on after 4 years = some %

People ordering either expectations of a certain feature that it no longer has (like 6 seater) = some %

Some % of those above overlap, but that overlap isn’t anywhere close to 100%.

Your argument is either (1) intentionally disengenuous or (2) absent of any level of critical thinking

OT but CT related
some of us noticed, back then, that a single motor CT was less expensive than 5 powerwalls, but had ~5.5 powerwall size battery, plus all associated electronics perhaps hackable to a tiny bit and perhaps plugs
,
(hurricane Irma took power 4.5 days plus freezer and refrig of food, hurricane Ian took power 11.25 days, plus a lot of heartache, so a CT makes survivability a bit higher for self and neighbors if the water gets really high)

edit
and, perhaps incorrectly, decided a powerwall on wheels was a really good deal when you gotta skedaddle,

 

[15Peter20]

Seeing as Tesla offered us UK Model S/X reservation holders LHD models after cancelling RHD production , does this mean my CT reservation is likely to complete, even if it means a LHD model?

It's a big beast, but no bigger than a tradesman's van. NACS would need an adapter or conversion. UK Tesla SCs would need training and I presume it'd be limited to 250kW Supercharging, but frankly: whatevs.

Gimmee!

 

[lascavarian]

Thanks to Papa Fox for his 4,000th post

 

[Mengy]

Quite the bump this morning in pre-market. Don't see any tangible news causing it either, maybe we'll see a runup into the ER on Wednesday?

 

[Featsbeyond50]

assuming everyone ordered the same spec, which they did not.

Influencers ordering for clout + FSD arbitragers + people buying for robotaxi fleets + as a joke + whatever reason = some %

People ordering tri motor + 40k single motor = 50%

People ordering and moved on after 4 years = some %

People ordering either expectations of a certain feature that it no longer has (like 6 seater) = some %

Some % of those above overlap, but that overlap isn’t anywhere close to 100%.

Your argument is either (1) intentionally disengenuous or (2) absent of any level of critical thinking

The real wildcard will be how much people are going to be willing to pay for your Cybertruck. Most people who reserved multiple trucks probably wouldn't follow through with the purchases but if people are willing to pay 10K+ over the sales price, then they will follow through and resale..

 

[Todd Burch]

Quite the bump this morning in pre-market. Don't see any tangible news causing it either, maybe we'll see a runup into the ER on Wednesday?

First Cybertruck off the line earlier than expected kinda counts as news.

 

[jerry33]

Seeing as Tesla offered us UK Model S/X reservation holders LHD models after cancelling RHD production , does this mean my CT reservation is likely to complete, even if it means a LHD model?

It's a big beast, but no bigger than a tradesman's van. NACS would need an adapter or conversion. UK Tesla SCs would need training and I presume it'd be limited to 250kW Supercharging, but frankly: whatevs.

Gimmee!

I don't believe you'll have to worry about that for a few years when there will be enough production to ship outside North America.

 

[-=buzz=-]

All this retracted if you'd just said "adds nothing for me" so I could easily ignore towards our general opinion on CT design.

Then maybe reread your quote of jerry33 once more, slowly.

 

[lascavarian]

Isaacson about to be on CNBC for discussion on Elon.

 

[Fred42]

This was already covered when I had to correct ADs claim the entire launch (not just the SS version) had been pushed to 2024.

Not only are the other models on track for summer launch, first production models have already shipped from the factory-- same link I provided on this before:

First Chevy Blazer EV en route to the US as GM ramps production to 65 units per hour

The first Chevy Blazer EV model, built at General Motor’s Ramos Arizpe plant in Mexico, is now on its way...

electrek.co

I'm willing to believe that the first Chevy Blazer (singular) is on its way to the US, as the article says.

 

[Electroman]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680242871503409152

Sure hope this rumor is not true. One reason I reserved the CT was the 500 miles range.

I can’t understand how they can squeeze 500 miles out of CT. So it will be good to temper expectations

 

[WarpedOne]

I can’t understand how they can squeeze 500 miles out of CT.

200kWh battery pack.
It won't cost $50k though.

 

[Stretch2727]

I can’t understand how they can squeeze 500 miles out of CT. So it will be good to temper expectations

Well if GM can get 450 miles in a Silverado the expectations have been set.

Although most will likely never need that range if you want to sell to the "work" truck customers that haul, tow, etc you need a huge buffer so the real world mileage is well above 200 miles in those cases.

I think Tesla will get there they are likely just focusing resources on one model of the truck to get it launched. The original Model 3 was just the RWD version for about a year so they could focus on getting it launched and even then it was not smooth.

There will be plenty of customers for a 350 mile version to start.

 

[2daMoon]

assuming everyone ordered the same spec, which they did not.

Influencers ordering for clout + FSD arbitragers + people buying for robotaxi fleets + as a joke + whatever reason = some %

People ordering tri motor + 40k single motor = 50%

People ordering and moved on after 4 years = some %

People ordering either expectations of a certain feature that it no longer has (like 6 seater) = some %

Some % of those above overlap, but that overlap isn’t anywhere close to 100%.

Your argument is either (1) intentionally disengenuous or (2) absent of any level of critical thinking

Do the math. Take into consideration every possible combination and possible choices for two million plus reservations. What percentage do you believe will decide not to take delivery on their reservation? 75%, 85%, 100%?

I began by removing 50% right off the top, just to be conservative.

Remove 75% if it suits you. It seems to me unlikely that only 500K from 2M will take delivery, but why not be as pessimistic as possible, just to make you happy.

If only 500K of the current reservation holders take delivery this will still represent at least a year or three of production during the ramp before the deliveries in the period defined as "not at first" are taken care of. Therefore, it will be at the absolute very least a full year before people choosing the Chevy Silverado has any impact at all on Cybertruck deliveries.

It seems more like you are who is being disingenuous and/or falling short on critical thinking by implying that those who have pre-ordered the most reserved vehicle in the history of the planet will cancel in numbers great enough for the scenario in the post by @Mengy to begin to have any discernible effect on CT sales.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I can’t understand how they can squeeze 500 miles out of CT. So it will be good to temper expectations

'cuz maths? 500 mi / 300 wh / mi = 150 Kwh used. That's 75% of a 200 Kwh pack. Feel free to attempt further understandings.