Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVWatcher]

That won't happen in many years, with the available space, you would need double the energy density of what we have today

Energy density alone hasn't improved that much over the past years, what we got is more power dense cells while keeping the energy density constant

The Panasonic NCR18650-B was one of the first high energy cells to hit the market with above 3000 mAh and has a gravimetric energy density of 243 Wh/kg, it was launched on 2009 and a slightly modified version was used on the Model S in the beginning

Today 2170 cells Tesla use are at 269 Wh/kg, so in 14 years we got a 10.6% increase in energy density. With everything Tesla showed on battery day, 4680s might get to 350 Wh/kg, which is a 44% over the original Model S from 2012

Yes, I'm ignoring the ultra niche and ultra expensive cells that are at supposedly 500 Wh/kg since they are irrelevant for now Tesla products wise

This reminded me of Musk saying this in 2020. That’s around now. The Batteries Behind the Electric Aircraft Revolution - Avionics International

Tesla and SpaceX founder Elon Musk has opined that 400 Wh/kg of energy density with high cycle life, produced in volume, is necessary for electric aviation applications — a benchmark he recently tweeted is “not far. Probably 3 to 4 years.”

 

[ShareLofty]

You don't think the specs of the latest product have any bearing on TSLA?

Specs? Tesla officially released the specs of the production Cybertruck? Must have missed that. Y’all are wasting pages discussing a rumor

 

[MC3OZ]

With everything Tesla showed on battery day, 4680s might get to 350 Wh/kg, which is a 44% over the original Model S from 2012

I admit this is not clear, it isn't clear when Tesla will be using the full range of improvements from Battery Day, and how much future 4680 cells will improve the current cells.

But Battery Day claimed a 54% range increase 20% of which was due to the Anode material.

I assume that 20% is mostly due to more Silicon in the Anode which so far Tesla hasn't done, and which may introduce additional problems.

But we could say 350 mile range + 20% might be the upper limit of what cell chemistry improvements could deliver.

350 mile range + 20% = 420 Miles, still a fair way short of 500 Miles.

Any additional range gains would probably have to come mainly from drivetrain improvements, most of which are probably already in the 350 mile version.

Still I don't rule out the possibility that a Munro teardown of a CT might reveal something unexpected.

 

[MartinAustin]

I've got some dry powder ready to go. Should I buy tomorrow or Thursday?

A large number of times I have bought before the ER, thinking "this time will be the time it goes up like a rocket... I need to be IN!!!" - and even though myself and others here were pleased with the results, the stock fell the next day due to "sell the news" or organised manipulation w/ help from the media.

Are we all super-confident the stock will go up, following the surprise manufacturing+deliveries numbers? Or... does anyone think TSLA will go down on Thursday?

 

[DarthPierce]

I've got some dry powder ready to go. Should I buy tomorrow or Thursday?

A large number of times I have bought before the ER, thinking "this time will be the time it goes up like a rocket... I need to be IN!!!" - and even though myself and others here were pleased with the results, the stock fell the next day due to "sell the news" or organised manipulation w/ help from the media.

Are we all super-confident the stock will go up, following the surprise manufacturing+deliveries numbers? Or... does anyone think TSLA will go down on Thursday?

Yes, definitely, it will go up or down. For sure!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I've got some dry powder ready to go. Should I buy tomorrow or Thursday?

A large number of times I have bought before the ER, thinking "this time will be the time it goes up like a rocket... I need to be IN!!!" - and even though myself and others here were pleased with the results, the stock fell the next day due to "sell the news" or organised manipulation w/ help from the media.

Are we all super-confident the stock will go up, following the surprise manufacturing+deliveries numbers? Or... does anyone think TSLA will go down on Thursday?

Part of me wants to believe TSLA has navigated the margin story...part of me wants to believe the increase in S/X deliveries and the 466k number has made up for the difference....but another part of me has been through earnings disappointment regardless if it is good or not. Oh well, at least we have something to look forward to in Q3/Q4

 

[Robertj]

I've got some dry powder ready to go. Should I buy tomorrow or Thursday?

A large number of times I have bought before the ER, thinking "this time will be the time it goes up like a rocket... I need to be IN!!!" - and even though myself and others here were pleased with the results, the stock fell the next day due to "sell the news" or organised manipulation w/ help from the media.

Are we all super-confident the stock will go up, following the surprise manufacturing+deliveries numbers? Or... does anyone think TSLA will go down on Thursday?

There’s a well known saying

“Time in the market , beats timing the market “

 

[SOULPEDL]

There’s a well known saying

“Time in the market , beats timing the market “

ARK sold some today to beat the head-fake rush in the next couple days.

Max Pain is showing several road spikes in Puts this week all spread out which is pulling Max down to 237.5 today. Contrast with the last few weeks so it's all about the earnings action.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

ARK sold some today to beat the head-fake rush in the next couple days.

Max Pain is showing several road spikes in Puts this week all spread out which is pulling Max down to 237.5 today. Contrast with the last few weeks so it's all about the earnings action.


View attachment 957270

Wal St is definitely positioned for a post earnings sell off. They’ll use a variety of excuses for the sell off, even if earnings beat. Tesla needs to get margins back up to the 20% to counteract what Wall St “wants” TSLA to do imo.

That or there needs to be something else in the earnings call that comes as a big surprise. Energy, earl Cybertruck deliveries, etc…take your pick

 

[MC3OZ]

Wal St is definitely positioned for a post earnings sell off. They’ll use a variety of excuses for the sell off, even if earnings beat. Tesla needs to get margins back up to the 20% to counteract what Wall St “wants” TSLA to do imo.

That or there needs to be something else in the earnings call that comes as a big surprise. Energy, earl Cybertruck deliveries, etc…take your pick

Energy would be my pick, the Megapack deliveries to Austin seem to be flowing well, some perhaps the Lathrop ramp is going well.

There was a lot of hype around Megapack in the recent past, which has died down.

It was probably overhyped, but there may be some substance to the hype.. For those betting against Tesla, energy is a surprise most haven't factored in.

While it is exciting, Cybertruck will not show up in the financials, I don't think they want to deliver any this quarter, that would probably be a drag on margins.

A real surprise would be a new factory announcement, not highly likely, but possible,

While it would be great to get a nice surprise, we certainly can't bank on it.

 

[insaneoctane]

Jim Farley, Ford CEO, basically gave the same reason for the F150 price cuts as Tesla did. Efficiencies have allowed them to reduce prices and keep margins in the OK range. If we’re being honest, we should give Ford the same benefit of the doubt as we have Tesla and take him at his word.

I thought the F150 price cuts were well timed personally.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681061665754759169

I didn't think the F-150 Lightning had shown positive margins yet. Certainly not the cheapest model which saw the deepest price cut?

 

[EQC_]

The Panasonic NCR18650-B was one of the first high energy cells to hit the market with above 3000 mAh and has a gravimetric energy density of 243 Wh/kg, it was launched on 2009 and a slightly modified version was used on the Model S in the beginning

Today 2170 cells Tesla use are at 269 Wh/kg, so in 14 years we got a 10.6% increase in energy density. With everything Tesla showed on battery day, 4680s might get to 350 Wh/kg, which is a 44% over the original Model S from 2012

Nice reference for the Wh/kg numbers. Thank you!

Do you by chance have the volumetric energy density for the various cells? Something like Wh/Liter?

It would also be interesting to see the volumetric energy density of the cells as they are packed into the battery pack (with cooling, etc). If I recall, the original S 85 kWh pack was actually about 82 kWh total...and a few years later the 100 kWh batteries (which were actually 102 or 103?) fit in the same volume, and with better cooling. So, whatever the cell energy density improvement
was, combined with pack improvements, Tesla managed to increase the volumetric energy density of the pack by roughly 25%.

Another interesting metric is something like the area energy density at the pack level. Since the cells stand on end, just by going to longer cells (18650's at 65 mm tall ...2170's at 70 mm tall...and 4680's at 80 mm tall), they can pack more kWh into a given floor pan area of a car. A double layer battery doubles that, of course, but that's a big change in the battery pack. On the Y, I don't think the packs are notably different dimensions, so they have versions with 80mm tall cells in the same size battery pack as the 70mm tall cells. Without adjusting other variables, that length increase offers a potential for 14% more kWh. I know the current 4680 packs offer fewer kWh than the 2170 packs, but I think that's a mix of different chemistries and Tesla not stuffing the entire pack with cells when they use the 4680's (yet?).

 

[Baumisch]

It's possible to calculate approximately how fast your were going. Were you averaging about 170-180 km/h? Just imagine how fast a Plaid range drops at 250 km/h . . .

This is a typical Munich to Freiburg drive with breakfast in the middle - so I drove as fast as possible to the first supercharger, get breakfast there and continued to destination.

I only have MY-LR so Vmax is 220kmh limited - a MY-P at 250km/h is much higher in consumption.
Also on the Autobahn during rushhour you can't sustain Vmax as my avera was only 115km/h due to construction and a bit of "Stau".
Teslafi stops speed-based efficiency and consuption at 150km/h

 

[NicoV]

View attachment 957291
This is a typical Munich to Freiburg drive with breakfast in the middle - so I drove as fast as possible to the first supercharger, get breakfast there and continued to destination.

I only have MY-LR so Vmax is 220kmh limited - a MY-P at 250km/h is much higher in consumption.
Also on the Autobahn during rushhour you can't sustain Vmax as my avera was only 115km/h due to construction and a bit of "Stau".
Teslafi stops speed-based efficiency and consuption at 150km/h View attachment 957292

My (limited) experience with the German autobahn is that while it’s fun to drive the occasional 200km/h, there are so much road works going on (I’m mainly crossing Germany in the east-west direction, from Belgium towards Austria) that my average speed is more like 100km/h. While in France, with it’s 130km/h speed limit, my average speed is closer to 130km/h. So in general I think consumption around 120km/h is more important for range.

 

[Artful Dodger]

GM doesn't have the battery supply to build Blazar (or Silverado) in volume. It's a compliance car, wrapped in a marketing campaign, inside an enima.

In case folks haven't heard, GM has idled it's Assembly Plant in Ingersoll, Ontario, Canada until Aug 31, 2023 due to Ultium Battery supply issues: (they don't have any - nor do other GM car plants)

Battery shortage shuts down Cami plant: Union | Simcoe Reformer (2023-07-14)​

Apparently there's some shortage of battery materials, according to Union insiders.

Who knew? /s

 

[BioSehnsucht]

My (limited) experience with the German autobahn is that while it’s fun to drive the occasional 200km/h, there are so much road works going on (I’m mainly crossing Germany in the east-west direction, from Belgium towards Austria) that my average speed is more like 100km/h. While in France, with it’s 130km/h speed limit, my average speed is closer to 130km/h. So in general I think consumption around 120km/h is more important for range.

120km/h is ~ 75mph and around here in Texas that's a pretty common highway speed, whether it be due to 99% of vehicles speeding or the actual speed limit (sometimes the posted limit is even higher!). So I would say that range at 120km/h / 75mph is a reasonable target to evaluate range on (vs say, ~100/~60 as is probably the typical max for EPA testing).

Anyone who seriously considers "Autobahn performance" to be the most compelling metric (vs more reasonable ones) is too niche to matter, and there's no reason to design for them unless your brand depends on this niche. (*cough* Porsche *cough*)

 

[aubreymcfato]

120km/h is ~ 75mph and around here in Texas that's a pretty common highway speed, whether it be due to 99% of vehicles speeding or the actual speed limit (sometimes the posted limit is even higher!). So I would say that range at 120km/h / 75mph is a reasonable target to evaluate range on (vs say, ~100/~60 as is probably the typical max for EPA testing).

Anyone who seriously considers "Autobahn performance" to be the most compelling metric (vs more reasonable ones) is too niche to matter, and there's no reason to design for them unless your brand depends on this niche. (*cough* Porsche *cough*)

Most EVs suffer incredibly at 120km, Tesla is probably one of the best regarding range at higher velocity (i.e. aerodinamics).

 

[Todd Burch]

I've got some dry powder ready to go. Should I buy tomorrow or Thursday?

A large number of times I have bought before the ER, thinking "this time will be the time it goes up like a rocket... I need to be IN!!!" - and even though myself and others here were pleased with the results, the stock fell the next day due to "sell the news" or organised manipulation w/ help from the media.

Are we all super-confident the stock will go up, following the surprise manufacturing+deliveries numbers? Or... does anyone think TSLA will go down on Thursday?

If any of us knew the answer to these questions we’d be WAY richer than we are.

 

[Todd Burch]

I didn't think the F-150 Lightning had shown positive margins yet. Certainly not the cheapest model which saw the deepest price cut?

Agreed. I think it is highly, highly optimistic viewpoint that Ford has made enough changes to bring the Lightning to positive margins, much less made enough to be able to slash $5k plus off the price and stay positive. Many of Ford’s costs are deeply inherent in the design of the vehicle (e.g. wiring was one example). Moreover, we are hearing lots of reports of high Lightning inventory, so I’m skeptical of the claims that prices are dropping due to territory gained in margins and customer demand. Typically, I wasn’t taught in economics that prices go down due to high customer demand unless you are significantly increasing production. No evidence of that—at least not yet.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I get emails from Tesla, others in the UK don't. The difference might be because I signed up while trying to get the ability to vote (guess).

There might be an "Electric Summer" campaign across Europe (UK certainly, at least one event in France) celebrating 10 years of Supercharging in Europe. I had an email mentioning Goodwood Festival of Speed, and then this was advertised by Tesla/Goodwood later (showed up as a magazine's full page advert on a few Tesla Youtube channels such as Herbert Ong's).

My concern is that these aren't being promoted enough/early enough. Depends on what kind of takeup these events have, for all I know, there's a concern that they might be oversubscribed.

Seemingly Tesla Plaid S/X did/were due to take part in the world famous hillclimb (listed by Goodwood as a partner), but I can't find a YouTube video, so maybe not.

So just a heads-up that UK/Rest of Europe are marketing/promoting without high costs of advertising. If anyone attends, please report back.

Spoiler: Details

From Email:-

Couple of clicks later...

Events | Tesla United Kingdom

Discover local events, virtual seminars, test drives and more.

www.tesla.com

Goodwood info - listed as partner - Goodwood - Tesla

Tesla stand at Goodwood, featuring mock Optimii in glass cases. A lot of visitors -