Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

I look for a reason for today's bump... this is all I could come up with:

1. CyberTruck pre-hype (because people were STILL thinking it wouldn't produce)
2. The 7 day itch (neg/pos)
3. It's been 3 days since this place has been depressing.

 

[Andy O]

The cybertruck launch will be a big deal for TSLA, but in my view the beginning of distribution is not the key moment for investment effects. That key moment occurs with the release of the specs for the trucks, and the selling prices. At that point we can estimate the degree of success expected.

 

[hobbes]

Market for storage similar to EVs, Tesla and Chinese companies at the top:

Six Chinese companies were among top 10 global energy storage system suppliers in 2023H1 | Shanghai Non ferrous Metals

According to SMM statistics, the global energy storage system shipments in 2023H1 reached 72.4 Gwh. China’s shipments were 47Gwh, accounting for 65%; overseas shipments were 25.4Gwh, accounting for 35%; global energy storage system shipments were still dominated by Chinese integrators. Tesla’s...

news.metal.com

Article based on the above with some context:

Wie bei Elektroautos: Tesla führt Weltmarkt für stationäre Akkus an, großer Rest aus China

Laut einer Studie ist Tesla bei stationären Akkus weltweiter Marktführer – wie bei Elektroautos direkt vor BYD und weiterer China-Konkurrenz.

teslamag-de.translate.goog

 

[Krugerrand]

Just don't expect CCP elites to be driving around in Teslas.

The same way many didn’t expect China to allow Tesla to build a factory in China without a Chinese partner.

Just because something has been a certain way doesn’t mean it will remain the same. Nothing is static, not even the Chinese government.

The world is changing. Fast. Elon wields a lot of power, as does Tesla and SpaceX and, and. Some people don’t like that. In the end it’s not going to matter what they like and even less what they post. Point being, that channel isn’t any more important than any other Internet channel.

 

[elasalle]

I look for a reason for today's bump... this is all I could come up with:

1. CyberTruck pre-hype (because people were STILL thinking it wouldn't produce)
2. The 7 day itch (neg/pos)
3. It's been 3 days since this place has been depressing.

Headline , saw the same in my TD feeds.

Tesla's stock jumps 7% after Baird highlights Cybertruck, other 'catalysts' for the year

A Baird analyst highlights some positive developments ahead of the EV maker in the second half of the year, including the launch of the Cybertruck.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[SOULPEDL]

The cybertruck launch will be a big deal for TSLA, but in my view the beginning of distribution is not the key moment for investment effects. That key moment occurs with the release of the specs for the trucks, and the selling prices. At that point we can estimate the degree of success expected.

I do think today's movement is from the anticipation of those key CyberTruck specs and price. Feels like we should know this very soon, right? (Crash tests, Iceland, spotted everywhere...) Meanwhile, we still don't even have a date for launch - is this normal? Feels like it's being milked for added hype (although, a "truck" is a significantly new market for Tesla.)

Any predictions on first deliveries? I think Sept, Labor Day, because it's all about the labor and the people and robots who make these beautiful products! Also, Labor Day is in 2 weeks!!!

 

[betstarship]

Can't believe I've been on this forum for 6 years...was previously goinfraftw and, now, betstarship. It's really fun talking about stuff here, tbh. Thanks for the entertainment and insight over the years!

 

[scaesare]

i though the same just had my HV battery replaced last week on Model S (49000 miles) .. new 100KWH pack ... i hope it is rare
SC did claim it was a new battery ... not sure how I could verify this

My service invoice said "REMAN" on it, if I recall. Not sure if the pack decal does or not...

 

[hitchhiker]

I do think today's movement is from the anticipation of those key CyberTruck specs and price. Feels like we should know this very soon, right? (Crash tests, Iceland, spotted everywhere...) Meanwhile, we still don't even have a date for launch - is this normal? Feels like it's being milked for added hype (although, a "truck" is a significantly new market for Tesla.)

What's normal for the industry is for no one to even notice all of these pre-production activities. Ford will ship their pre-production test vehicles to places, and no one will even care until they announce the first production vehicles off the line.

 

[UncaNed]

What's normal for the industry is for no one to even notice all of these pre-production activities. Ford will ship their pre-production test vehicles to places, and no one will even care until they announce the first production vehicles off the line.

So Tesla not being normal for much of anything, what are we to think??

 

[insaneoctane]

The way the Sun glinted off that SS body...

Yep. I'll say it. After watching the reflection of those flat panels, I foresee a great deal of drama from the MM about how dangerous and blinding the sun reflections off the flat SS CT panels are for surrounding "victims"...you heard it here first!

 

[insaneoctane]

i though the same just had my HV battery replaced last week on Model S (49000 miles) .. new 100KWH pack ... i hope it is rare
SC did claim it was a new battery ... not sure how I could verify this

Curious....if out of warranty battery pack replacements cost us $18K, does Tesla take a $18K charge on each of these in-warranty claims?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla significantly undervalued? Put me in the "yes" camp.

Is Tesla Inc (TSLA) Significantly Undervalued? A Comprehensive Valuation Analysis

Exploring the intrinsic value of Tesla's stock and its potential for future returns

finance.yahoo.com

As of August 21, 2023, Tesla's stock price stands at $227.62 per share, with a market capitalization of $722.50 billion. However, the GF Value, an estimation of the stock's fair value, is $453.55, suggesting that the stock might be significantly undervalued.

 

[NicoV]

Curious....if out of warranty battery pack replacements cost us $18K, does Tesla take a $18K charge on each of these in-warranty claims?

Probably only the material+work cost. Which is probably a lot less than the out-of-warranty cost.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

The cybertruck launch will be a big deal for TSLA, but in my view the beginning of distribution is not the key moment for investment effects. That key moment occurs with the release of the specs for the trucks, and the selling prices. At that point we can estimate the degree of success expected.

I wouldn't be surprised if fund managers agreed with you but my opinion is the stock price will be most influenced by how smoothly the ramp goes. I think the specs/price ratio is a given to beat the competition so it's all about the ramp.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I do think today's movement is from the anticipation of those key CyberTruck specs and price. Feels like we should know this very soon, right? (Crash tests, Iceland, spotted everywhere...) Meanwhile, we still don't even have a date for launch - is this normal? Feels like it's being milked for added hype (although, a "truck" is a significantly new market for Tesla.)

Any predictions on first deliveries? I think Sept, Labor Day, because it's all about the labor and the people and robots who make these beautiful products! Also, Labor Day is in 2 weeks!!!

As anxious as we all are, I think it might not be until much later in the year. Someone here, or on Twitter, said several hundred Model Ys were produced before the delivery event was announced. I think the CT number is still under 20.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Tesla significantly undervalued? Put me in the "yes" camp.

Is Tesla Inc (TSLA) Significantly Undervalued? A Comprehensive Valuation Analysis

Exploring the intrinsic value of Tesla's stock and its potential for future returns

finance.yahoo.com

As of August 21, 2023, Tesla's stock price stands at $227.62 per share, with a market capitalization of $722.50 billion. However, the GF Value, an estimation of the stock's fair value, is $453.55, suggesting that the stock might be significantly undervalued.

View attachment 967057

What factors go into drawing that midline? If I was drawing that in one of my half-assed technical efforts, I would have that line flattening out over the last year.

 

[MartinAustin]

I look for a reason for today's bump... this is all I could come up with:

1. CyberTruck pre-hype (because people were STILL thinking it wouldn't produce)
2. The 7 day itch (neg/pos)
3. It's been 3 days since this place has been depressing.

Dan Ives was on CNBC this morning and they asked him to explain. He listed -
1) price cuts are in the rear view mirror
2) chinese demand appears to be ticking upwards

Not sure I agree with either of those but he had to say something

 

[MP3Mike]

I think the CT number is still under 20.

Based on what? The people watching the factory seem to think they are currently making 6-10 per day.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

As anxious as we all are, I think it might not be until much later in the year. Someone here, or on Twitter, said several hundred Model Ys were produced before the delivery event was announced. I think the CT number is still under 20.

Those that follow GigaAustin closely (the drone flyers) put the total number of Cybertrucks at 65-70. They also state they're making around 6-8 per day and that number has been increasing.