We've been hearing for years that when auto battery packs are n o longer serviceable for cars, they could be repackaged to provide general energy storage--for homes for example. might this be an alternative to "grind-up" recycling?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I posted this in the 'Options - Be the House' thread, but I thought this is interesting to share here too.
Spot any similarities?
Spot any similarities?
I'd venture to say that the Prius battery replacement still seems very pricey, and probably scares many people off of electric cars
I believe the Prius battery is only something like 1.5 kWh. People know it's just a hybrid and can't drive far (if at all) on the battery alone. Honestly, I think Toyota is price gauging on their replacement cost...but imagine an uninformed person guessing at the replacement cost for an 80 kWh Tesla battery when the 1.5 kWh Prius battery is $3000!
There's also plenty of news articles noting a roughly $20K price to replace a Model S battery out of warranty, which seems high. Potential customers don't really know how long the battery will last beyond the 8 year warranty or how many are being replaced, and it's hard to find any reliable data on that...probably in part because even the oldest Model S is still only 11 years old. But, if Tesla can work on lowering the battery replacement cost and making that fact known, it will do much benefit for the entire new and used EV market.
Single crystal high nickel packs and LFP packs can potentially outlast the car, though a better use may be to support V2G during the life of the car.
I'm not 100% sure, but my recollection is the Dendrites can be an issue in older NMC/NCA packs and it might be safer to recycle them at end of life.
I think we will get some reuse of packs, but not enough to make a dent in the steep ramp of energy storage batteries that is required.
My view is that because older batteries have reduced capacity and life, the cost of processing, testing and repackaging would be too high for small scale storage.
There is a company that's taking EV batteries whole and hooking them up together as a grid storage battery. I think that kind of simplicity and scale is what's needed.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
It wouldn't be another origami-folded flat-plate body, it'd be stainless steel metal-foam:
Metal foam | Artful Dodger on TMC
It's a technology likely for the 2030's but it's the only realistic way to single-shot cast an entire car body producing a smoothly curved shape, (rather than just the f/r subframes like Model Y/Highland).
Cheers!
”Hasn’t moved the needle much in the last two years”
….right
Do you actually remember what the functionality of FSD was two years ago?
Yah 2 years might be a stretch.”Hasn’t moved the needle much in the last two years”
….right
Do you actually remember what the functionality of FSD was two years ago?
But I remember it 18 months ago. It still fails at all the same intersections every day for us. And it has reverted to stopping on the railway tracks at two key intersections in town.
But yah. From what I can gather from others on this forum it works pretty good for some. But for us it’s still very sketchy and is marginally better than it was then.
Am I reading that chart right? Has $360 Billion been spent on TSLA options so far in 2023? Worth half the actual market cap of the company?
Wow, what am awesome tweet by Dillon Loomis! Excellent summary that should be read by everyone in this forum.
There isn't anything here that we collectively don't know, but he puts it together in a very cohesive and persuasive manner.
There isn't anything here that we collectively don't know, but he puts it together in a very cohesive and persuasive manner.
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MartinAustin
Active Member
Yes. Tesla can always find a way to change the rules of manufacture.
I would not be surprised if they are also trying to make harder dies that last longer.
petit_bateau
Active Member
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Panasonic
Battery Storage
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Currently Tesla have approximately 10% of the global stationary storage market, which is approximately equal in % to BYD and Sungrow (by eye on these charts). The HyperStrong, Nextera, Huawei, Fluence, Powin, KEHUA TECH and Narada players all range about 5% down to 3%. So that is about 50-60% of the global stationary storage market in the hands of the top 10 players. Looking at the charts the top 20 players (so including Nextera, SMA, Canadian Solar, etc) total about 70-80% of the market.
Six Chinese companies were among top 10 global energy storage system suppliers in 2023H1 | Shanghai Non ferrous Metals
According to SMM statistics, the global energy storage system shipments in 2023H1 reached 72.4 Gwh. China’s shipments were 47Gwh, accounting for 65%; overseas shipments were 25.4Gwh, accounting for 35%; global energy storage system shipments were still dominated by Chinese integrators. Tesla’s...
news.metal.com
An important difference is that some (but definitely not all at scale) of those storage players also do solar manufacturing. So for example 2022 was 270GW of solar modules (of which Tesla installed 0.3 GW ....). Again - as always - be careful to distinguish between manufacture and install. The biggest PV module manufacturers are pure plays mind you - for example BYD at 1-2GW (I think) is a very small scale player.
Top PV module manufacturers by shipment volume in 2022
TrendForce has ranked the top six module manufacturers by shipment volume in 2022, with Longi topping the list, followed by Trina Solar and JinkoSolar. JA Solar, Canadian Solar, and Risen Energy rounded out the top six, in a year dominated by large-format modules.
www.pv-magazine.com
And Tesla is finally starting to address this by changing its solar strategy: outsourcing install. The problem that Tesla has is that solar tiles are a deadend bet versus modules, and if Tesla drops the tiles then it is just a module reseller (intermediary) for the big (Chinese) solar manufacturers. Not really a value-add.
Tesla changes its solar strategy, lays off workers, bets on certified installers
Tesla is evidently changing its solar strategy by starting to move away from having its own installers and relying more...
electrek.co
I don't know if Tesla needs to own the full stack. It may be that PV module manufacturing remains best addressed as a separate pure play. There are precedents - automotive and petroleum industries were absoltely interdependent, but almost entirely separate. For now it is better that Tesla get the storage + inverter + software part of the stack right as they do have a chance to remain a significant player in that area. Holding a 10% global market share of that and a top-three place would be nice. And let us be clear - Tesla is not there yet as it does not yet have a top 3 place in inverters, nor a 10% market share in them.
My thought is that it would be more costly (less automated) because each pack would need to be tested and because packs are removed from service at different SOC levels, the resulting product would be inconsistent.
Possible reason for the premarket drop.
Insider claims Berlin is producing 4k cars per week and cannot hit 5k/week due to staff shortage.
www.businessinsider.de
Insider claims Berlin is producing 4k cars per week and cannot hit 5k/week due to staff shortage.
Viel weniger als behauptet: Interne Dokumente zeigen, wie viele Autos Tesla in Grünheide wirklich produziert
Tesla gab im März an, 5000 Autos pro Woche zu produzieren. Interne Dokumente zeigen, dass das interne Ziel lediglich 4350 Fahrzeugen sind.
www.businessinsider.de
The original poster was the one committing your logical fallacy. I was merely pointing this out with a counter-example.
JusRelax
Active Member
Possible reason for the premarket drop.
Insider claims Berlin is producing 4k cars per week and cannot hit 5k/week due to staff shortage.
Viel weniger als behauptet: Interne Dokumente zeigen, wie viele Autos Tesla in Grünheide wirklich produziert
Tesla gab im März an, 5000 Autos pro Woche zu produzieren. Interne Dokumente zeigen, dass das interne Ziel lediglich 4350 Fahrzeugen sind.
Luckily, Tesla didn't have it's new Cybertruck get an EPA rating below what's expected, or we'd be down 50% instead of just 2.5%.
Production issues due to lack of staff.Possible reason for the premarket drop.
Insider claims Berlin is producing 4k cars per week and cannot hit 5k/week due to staff shortage.
Viel weniger als behauptet: Interne Dokumente zeigen, wie viele Autos Tesla in Grünheide wirklich produziert
Tesla gab im März an, 5000 Autos pro Woche zu produzieren. Interne Dokumente zeigen, dass das interne Ziel lediglich 4350 Fahrzeugen sind.
Which will of course be processed as lack of demand today…
In fairness to the bears, this was supposed to be well on the way to 10K per week and 500K per year. So much for beating Shanghai ramp and production.
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A few days ago, someone pointed out this message on Tesla's website, but I didn't see any follow-up. Is there insight on why Tesla is cautioning about a likely reduction?
$7,500 Federal Tax Credit
Customers who take delivery of a qualified new Tesla and meet all federal requirements are eligible for a tax credit up to $7,500. Reductions to current federal tax credit likely after Dec 31.
Ahh, cleaning out old tech yesterday I found an actual AOL dial up modem right beside my equally ancient Apple Newton replete with Graffiti instructions and its very own dialup modem. Both bought in Menlo Park just near Anderson Chevrolet, which became the original Tesla factory, a decade later:
Menlo Park's only auto factory assembles $100,000 cars - InMenlo
Passers-by may well have seen the sleek, gray and very modern Tesla dealership at 300 El Camino in Menlo Park, just opposite the intersection with Partridge Avenue, on a lot that once was home to Anderson Chevrolet. One of the first two U.S. showrooms (the other is in Santa Monica), this...inmenlo.com
Somehow it seems fitting that those two became two of my most durable investments.
It seems to me that the more we understand the history and origin of TSLA the more we're likely to understand the benefit of HODL, assuming willingness to live with volatility.
An old modem that had been used to dial AOL, or an actual AOL branded modem?
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