Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Marc_K_inNJ]

Ford, Stellantis, and GM are ALL up this morning, LOL.

Welcome to Bizzaro World!

Well, since they lose money on every EV they sell… the market figures closing down the plant is a money saver…

 

[Nocturnal]

My take is, the ramp they predict for Cybertruck will require more cells than what the ramp of 4680 production at Texas will be able to supply, they need and want to ramp Cybertruck fast due to the fixed costs of having a full staffed production line being limited (Hi Mary and Hummer EV)

In this case converting Kato to 4680 V2 helps with that and barely hurts Model Y production since there is other lines and factories to pick up the slack, or as I said, might not even hurt at all since it's likely they have excess 2170 cells, so Texas production of Model Y will stay the same

Another possibility with no source whatsoever, 4680 V2 will go into Model Y, but with the 10% energy increase it will have the same pack size as the regular 2170 Model Y LR

75.9 kWh + 10% = 83.5 kWh, 2170 Model 3/Y is 82 kWh, seems like a strong possibility, if not now, in the future when 4680s exist in abundance. If performance is the same, the average customer won't and don't care what cells the vehicle has

Seems to me that Tesla has been testing their 4680 batteries right under our noses by creating the Model Y version. It's pretty cool when customers are willing to pay you to test a product.

That's also why they didn't go out of their way to push these cars to buyers. Many noted that the pricing wasn't particularly attractive after all.

 

[Opus BC fan]

A double MMD! Today must be special!
Imagine the surprise of all those suckers who bet it would be 280 or better...

 

[Webeevdrivers]

My take is, the ramp they predict for Cybertruck will require more cells than what the ramp of 4680 production at Texas will be able to supply, they need and want to ramp Cybertruck fast due to the fixed costs of having a full staffed production line being limited (Hi Mary and Hummer EV)

In this case converting Kato to 4680 V2 helps with that and barely hurts Model Y production since there is other lines and factories to pick up the slack, or as I said, might not even hurt at all since it's likely they have excess 2170 cells, so Texas production of Model Y will stay the same

Another possibility with no source whatsoever, 4680 V2 will go into Model Y, but with the 10% energy increase it will have the same pack size as the regular 2170 Model Y LR

75.9 kWh + 10% = 83.5 kWh, 2170 Model 3/Y is 82 kWh, seems like a strong possibility, if not now, in the future when 4680s exist in abundance. If performance is the same, the average customer won't and don't care what cells the vehicle has

I don’t know. Putting their worst performing battery in their highly anticipated newest product. Seems sketchy. And people are already saying things like whatever you buy make sure it doesn’t have a 4680 battery.

Just sayin.

 

[bkp_duke]

Produce? Yes…. For a little while.

Deliver?

Teamsters won't deliver Detroit 3 vehicles if UAW strikes

Teamsters Local 299 President Kevin Moore said, "I understand their struggles and their issues." Truck drivers will not cross a picket line.

finance.yahoo.com

At least GM was offering a discount to dealers if they showed up to the factory and picked up the vehicles. Limited volume that way, but better than none.

 

[Artful Dodger]

A double MMD! Today must be special!
Imagine the surprise of all those suckers who bet it would be 280 or better...

Wait 'til Power Hour. It's ain't over 'til the fat lady sings. Bulls care about the Close, not the Open. Lot's o' big money interests loaded up on call contracts this week. We'll see.

 

[EVCollies]

Threads of the day:
The demise of the OEMs Rotating? strikes start any minute now
FSD discussion Douma and DaveT on V12
Elon Musk Biography By Walter Isaacson Walter and Rob chat
"Unboxed" Gen 3 manufacturing Process Single base gigacasting?
Tesla Energy and utility scale projects Autobidder profits
Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot 6-10 weeks? until production ramp starts

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702494684130476494

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702483812016349354

CT event soon?

50,000th:
View attachment 973944

Is this the first one? Found this in Vail, CO yesterday:

 

[Cosmacelf]

Is this the first one? Found this in Vail, CO yesterday:


View attachment 974049

First one what? That’s not a Supercharger, looks like like a Roadster charger. Would be helpful to have a picture that wasn’t so close up so we could look at the charge plug.

 

[dhanson865]

TSLA down 1.5% and GM up 2% on news of a UAW strike

when in doubt, zoom out. Looks like to me it's just bouncing around the time of the news of the UAW strike. No correlation.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla Gigafactory Mexico construction to start soon | teslarati.com (6 hrs ago)

Tesla Gigafactory Mexico construction to start soon

Earlier this week, the Governor of Nuevo León met with a few Tesla executives overseeing the buildout of Gigafactory Mexico.

www.teslarati.com

“My friends and colleagues from Tesla are very happy because they have their gigafactories in Austin and San Francisco; they will already have direct flights when they come here to settle. I am also about to receive the start-up of the Gigafactory from Tesla.

“We are going to start with the whole issue of water, it is treated water, from the train and adaptations and access to the highway, highway (Monterrey-Saltillo) to the plant, so pure good news, we are working with everything,” he said.

Sounds like somebody got the fire lit under them. Good.

Cheers!

 

[petit_bateau]

Looks like that is the case

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702518536110027195

Because Cybertruck will suck all the cells it can, it will likely use more than double the number of cells the Model Y can

Makes more sense to go back to just make Model Y 2170 than limit Cybertruck production due to lack of cells, Model Y numbers won't suffer much since they have plenty of 2170s now that Megapack is LFP but Cybertruck will without Kato Rd doing cells for it while Texas ramps

Various alternative hypotheses:

1) Perhaps Panasonic 2170 production has increased, and that in turn is allowing Kato+Austin 4680 production to be diverted to CT use.

2) Perhaps Austin Y production has been held at 40k/qtr rather than ramping to 50k/qtr ?

3) Perhaps a USA LFP source has been brought onstream for Austin Y ? (this would be US-IRA compliant) ?

4) Perhaps a non-USA LFP source has been brought onstream for Austin Y ? (this would not be US-IRA compliant) ?

5) Perhaps 2170 that was going into Powerwall is now being diverted into Austin Y ? (this may be because of release of Powerwall 3 - do we know what cells are in use ? ?? LFP ?)

6) Perhaps they want to ramp Cybertruck faster than I sketched out ?

Do we have any reasonable estimates as to what Q3 production of the Y in Austin actually was ?

 

[dhanson865]

Is this the first one? Found this in Vail, CO yesterday:


View attachment 974049

No, unfortunately the first supercharger is no longer in use. It was in California and was a single pedestal but they put in a full more modern multi charger site nearby and decommissioned the first supercharger.

I don't remember the city but I've seen the picture several times and it looks nothing like your attachment.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I'm curious, could you show us your math on how you arrived at that price per share? Because, and please don't take any offense to this, but that simply isn't grounded in reality.

For reference, in my model to get $120/share in 2030 we would need 10 million production, Megapack sales equally low, a GM of 10%, and a PE of 6.

You are asking me to show you my ass since that's where I pulled that number from. My point is, if we didn't have all those things Tesla wouldn't be worth all that much. If we don't have FSD and Robotaxi and all that, it really is just a car company. So, if Tesla meets it's auto sales goal of 20M a year by 2030, it's basically Toyota and VW combined with a moderately larger market cap due to better margins.

Fortunately, we do have all those things and your estimates probably aren't that far off, but it does require those things.

 

[growler23]

In light of the UAW strike on topic of timing of a potential Cybertruck Announcement:

****> Is NOW not the opportune moment?

If Tesla had a PR department still, they would be salivating like Pavlov's favorite canines.
Competitors in disarray, their labor cost disadvantage blowing in the breeze for all to admire, and the one thing they offer that you don't (trucks) on the cusp of becoming a nonfactor or more likely Advantage Tesla...

Announce already!!!!! Cybertruck with Cybercell 4680s for the win!
Who's with me?

 

[GhostSkater]

I don’t know. Putting their worst performing battery in their highly anticipated newest product. Seems sketchy. And people are already saying things like whatever you buy make sure it doesn’t have a 4680 battery.

Just sayin.

Doubt Tesla will release it with anything other than an awesome charging curve, while in the past Tesla would first release with a poor charging curve and then improve, that wasn't the case with the Model S/X, it released with a really good curve that is the same as today

All data that I posted a few times points that Tesla is being ultra conservative with the Model Y 4680 curve, on top of that, those cells are only half DBE, 4680 V2 is full DBE, which also helps with charging speed

The least I expect from Cybertruck at V3 Superchargers is to maintain 250 kW until 50%, and who know what the peak will be, but I bet it will be such as charging times are around 25 to 30 minutes 10-80%, which is what the other models do

Maybe even better, because the data points that there is room for that

 

[betstarship]

Gene is not saying anything that isn’t obvious here. Even after factoring in wage increases that Tesla will have to make in response to whatever generous pay increase UAW workers will eventually get, Tesla will enjoy an even bigger wage gap (Ie they pay their manufacturing workers less). Tesla can do this for a couple of reasons (not mentioned by Gene). First, their pay package include stock options which might actually be worth something. This drags on TSLA GAAP earnings, but it well worth the EPS hit. Second, without a union in the middle, Tesla can offer a work environment that is more appealing to younger workers, and the US workforce is decidedly shifting from older to younger as the big baby boomer demographic bulge retire.

Btw, anyone here invested in Deepwater? They are fundraising for their second VC fund right now and I’m considering throwing a few bucks their way. Their fund is small, but because Gene has such an outsized presence on the TV networks and such, they punch way above their weight in being able to get in on early stage hot startups. For instance, they are an investor in JB Straubel’s Redwood.

I shared to my network, a few got back with positive potential to help Deep Water out to get their 2nd fund. I was about to share here, but wasn't sure if it was appropriate (asked a mod). Also, unfortunately, many funds can't invest in other funds.

The only times I'll LP are likely in mental health and alumni orgs. With that said, I'll say they're great! Two thumbs up on their approach on the 2nd fund. Also, not sure if this is private - but you can invest in your 401k funds too...

Lastly - did intro them to one of my future portfolio companies too. There was a meeting at least!

 

[Curt Renz]

This is a quarterly (Triple Witching) options expiration day. That implies more interest than a monthly or weekly.
Based on my survey of the current TSLA options trading volume and the earlier open interest, large option writers with the ability to temporarily manipulate the share price may target $275 as their most profitable closing share price. The share price is near there right now, so it may be relatively easy for manipulators to keep it there. Of course, news or traders' insistence could confound them.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

My take is, the ramp they predict for Cybertruck will require more cells than what the ramp of 4680 production at Texas will be able to supply, they need and want to ramp Cybertruck fast due to the fixed costs of having a full staffed production line being limited (Hi Mary and Hummer EV)

In this case converting Kato to 4680 V2 helps with that and barely hurts Model Y production since there is other lines and factories to pick up the slack, or as I said, might not even hurt at all since it's likely they have excess 2170 cells, so Texas production of Model Y will stay the same

Sort of true. This isn't rocket science - Tesla is slowing down Model Y production probably in order to create enough cells for Cybertruck. Again that doesn't automatically mean they are getting enough 2170 cells from elsewhere.

Tesla Austin Model Y production has decreased over last few months. Probably because of Kato 4680 now going to Cybertruck.

Because Tesla's predictions for 4680 production have been chronically and dramatically under target for a few years.

It has limited production growth and seems like it will continue doing so into 2024.

 

[Electroman]

I may be misinterpreting your post, so if your post was sarcasm just disregard...but I actually thought it was refreshing to see that. I took it as a big compliment to Tesla's ability to bring down costs.

What I heard was "Tesla's so good at cutting cost, nobody else has a chance."

For the CNN/CNBC/MSNBC crowd who are generally clueless about these things, they will simply latch on to the words, 'unfair advantage' and instantly connect with all the other adjectives and adverbs they have heard from the media over the years on Tesla and Musk like, 'grifter, tax dodger, subsidy hound, anti-employee policies, racism, etc..'.

And that is the idea. To paint a negative picture. aka gaslighting.

 

[Zero CO2]

X-Change: Cars - RMI

In X-change: Cars, RMI shows that the rapid growth of electric vehicles (EVs) means that global oil demand for cars has already peaked and will be in freefall by 2030.

rmi.org

pretty good report ... some heavy reading .. funded by Bezos
i have not been keeping up with thread so this may have been posted already