Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Webeevdrivers]

Was there any mention of the Semi? I might have skipped over it. Anything on actual production plans or are they just stating with the pilot production.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I watched SMRs video, nice summary!

Feeling bullish again - "Only the Paranoid Survive." by Dr. Andy Grove, another wise man. I once gave him a 1 on 1 software demo and he shook my hand. Classic leather jacket, no BS... I think Elon has some of Dr. Grove's DNA.

So... 4680 Battery cell production in Texas is up 40% (QoQ) while Battery Waste is down 40% (also QoQ). That sounds like the ramp is coming exactly from making less waste, right? That's a HUGE yield improvement and a lot of scrap saved! Warrants a breakthrough for that to happen so quickly.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

However, one thing to keep in mind is that Elon knows a LOT more about the US economy and the myriad of other things occuring in the world than what was discussed today. Hate to say it, but perhaps he's prepping us for what really may coming... scary thought especially for some of us, but things may get a lot worse before they get better.

Elon may have more info than average Joe but he does not have a good record of predicting anything macro. I'll take the average consensus from any random 10 people over Elon anyday when it comes to predicting the economy. Actually, in a whole lot of things that does not involve rockets or EVs.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

If Elon was feeling that down, I wonder why he didn't just bail on the call and have the new CFO do it. Since he said he isn't going to be on all the calls he's only missed one or two - does he feel like he has to do it?

 

[Mengy]

So... 4680 Battery cell production in Texas is up 40% (QoQ) while Battery Waste is down 40% (also QoQ). That sounds like the ramp is coming exactly from making less waste, right? That's a HUGE yield improvement and a lot of scrap saved! Warrants a breakthrough for that to happen so quickly.

Drew's words on the 4680 production were great. I think it was the most positive part of the entire earnings call!

 

[nativewolf]

(1) Drugs and Elon happens. (2) The sooner that expectations can be "managed" about 50% CACR the better. Why not have a Tesla official say the actual truth that it's rare that making physical goods over more than several years can occur at that rate? For software yes, but not for metal-bending. So "guide" to 30%, not 50%. (3) If CTs are hard and expensive to make, why not charge early adopters accordingly? Out of more than a couple million pre-orders, won't 1 out of 10 pay a boosted initial price? Tesla did it this way for Roadsters and Model S/X; they only came down the cost J-curve with Model 3/Y. (4) As for ordinary trucks, someone at Tesla is on record somewhere that they'd make a more ordinary truck if the CT (at least the exterior styling) fails.

now we know why our very talented CFO left

 

[MC3OZ]

20 million production by 2030 is now very unlikely.

I always considered this to be an aspirational target.

IMO key to the chances of getting closer:-

• Is small scale pilot production of the Gen3 car happening at Austin?
• 4806 remap progress - required a run rate of 50 GWh per year by the end of 2024.

If Gen3 vehicle production and 4680 production at future factories is a cut-and-paste, Tesla can at least move faster than most other carmakers.

If nothing much is currently happening with Gen3 pilot production at Austin, we need to push that 2030 target out by a few years.

 

[Tony73]

Didn’t hear most of the call live. I followed it here and now having gone back and caught up on the parts I missed, I don’t think the call was as negative as it was made out to be here.

Could Elon have worded some things better ? Absolutely. But ultimately, nothing has fundamentally changed.

 

[MrMoo]

Didn’t hear most of the call live. I followed it here and now having gone back and caught up on the parts I missed, I don’t think the call was as negative as it was made out to be here.

Could Elon have worded some things better ? Absolutely. But ultimately, nothing has fundamentally changed.

I'll tell you what has fundamentally changed. Anything to do with making more profit than the previous year.

But if you are talking about Revenue, sure that hasn't fundamentally changed over the past year. Which is a good sign, right? RIGHT?

 

[nativewolf]

Drew's words on the 4680 production were great. I think it was the most positive part of the entire earnings call!

Waste reduction is good unless it was terrible to start with. Not sure how to understand the 4680 without more context because to date everything about the 4680 has been much slower and less impactful than anticipated a few years ago.

 

[dhanson865]

The livestreamed earnings call had some audio cut outs.

This newly posted audio call doesn't have any audio cut outs. Elon's comments about further reducing COGS at the beginning sound promising (this part was cut off during the livestream):

For those that thought Elon sounded morose and depressed, I suggest you play the new version of the recording he doesn't sound down in that one.

I guess the poor audio was stripping out tones we would associate with emotion.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Waste reduction is good unless it was terrible to start with. Not sure how to understand the 4680 without more context because to date everything about the 4680 has been much slower and less impactful than anticipated a few years ago.

Tesla has a rich tradition of "____ turned out to be a lot harder than we originally thought"

 

[SOULPEDL]

From the Q3 Card Deck...

"Volume: For 2023, we expect to remain ahead of the long-term 50% CAGR with around 1.8 million vehicles for the year."​

I count 1.35M Vol in 2023 to end of Q3. 1.8M-1.35M = "around" 450K for Q4.
Q4 earnings could be sweet with costs down. And I trust they don't have to discount much more, and only where necessary.

 

[ke6jph]

OT,
On a lighter note……
Cyber beer on the way!

coming by refrigerated truck!

 

[SOULPEDL]

I always considered this to be an aspirational target.

IMO key to the chances of getting closer:-

• Is small scale pilot production of the Gen3 car happening at Austin?
• 4806 remap progress - required a run rate of 50 GWh per year by the end of 2024.

If Gen3 vehicle production and 4680 production at future factories is a cut-and-paste, Tesla can at least move faster than most other carmakers.

If nothing much is currently happening with Gen3 pilot production at Austin, we need to push that 2030 target out by a few years.

I don't see how we ever needed 20M capacity, due to Robotaxi's ability to increase utilization 4x - in theory.
I too saw it as a convenient comparison with peak ICE sales. Not a hard number but a dynamic target.
If anything, we are sorely reminded just how many cars are made... annually!

 

[betstarship]

Wow, have I had my head up my butt about predictions with Tesla since the run-up in 2020-2021. It totally went to my head no matter how much I tried for it not to.

If I do anymore prediction posts, downvote please.

 

[Tony73]

If Elon was feeling that down, I wonder why he didn't just bail on the call and have the new CFO do it. Since he said he isn't going to be on all the calls he's only missed one or two - does he feel like he has to do it?

New CFO does not exactly inspire much confidence. Certainly not like Zach Kirkhorn did.

 

[MartinAustin]

For the record, I think the Cybertruck pricing will positively surprise everyone (I think they'll keep it within $5-10k of the announced price) but it'll screw over investors as they'll probably sell it at a loss to begin with until the ramp + iterative production efficiency methods come online in the years ahead.

And Elon's going ahead with the Cybertruck because it's his favorite car. That's it. Like the Model X doors.

Elon's statement that it would not be profitable at the beginning was IMO his clue to investors that, as you say, the pricing won't be crazy high. I think it (the pricing) will be a headache for poor Ford+GM+Stelantis

 

[AudubonB]

Tesla & Mr Musk never thought it could be so difficult with…

Model X doors…
Model 3 mass production…
Factory permits…
CT assembly…
And:
Assuaging shareholders’ enthusiasm.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Elon's statement that it would not be profitable at the beginning was IMO his clue to investors that, as you say, the pricing won't be crazy high. I think it (the pricing) will be a headache for poor Ford+GM+Stelantis

I guess I wonder why he felt the need to say it. NO new vehicle line, particularly one of a brand new product, is going to be profitable. Takes time to ramp, to work out the supply stream, sort out manufacturing and design issues. No reasonable person would expect that product to be profitable at start of production, any more than a new factory would. I would like to know if Berlin and Austin are now in the black.