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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Regarding additional vehicle manufacturing capacity within existing U.S. facilities, I found this in Tesla's 2018 10K, page 10.

"Gigafactory 1 is being built in phases. Tesla, Panasonic and other partners are currently manufacturing inside the finished sections. Our present plan is to continue expanding Gigafactory 1 over the next few years so that its capacity significantly exceeds the approximately 500,000 vehicle per year capacity that we announced when we first started developing it, and we have additionally added capacity for manufacturing our energy storage products. We have also announced that we will likely manufacture Model Y, which we intend to produce at high volumes by the end of 2020, at Gigafactory 1."

I don't ever remember Giga 1 being initially planned as such a large volume producer of vehicles. I just have always thought of it as a place where battery packs, drive units, low volume semis and energy products would be made, not passenger vehicles. Interesting to think that Tesla could use Giga Nevada for >500,000 vehicle production if they decided to go that direction.
The early presentation slides of GF1 showed an immense building. Far larger than what is currently built.
 
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All this talk about educating consumers and ads, suddenly my brain farted out the hilarious concept of EV education ads done in the over the top in your face style of the propaganda segments of starship troopers.

WOULD YOU LIKE TO KNOW MORE?
Are these ads the type of thing that might go viral on social media?

I'm in the age group that still watches some TV, but mostly social media/streaming, but I am aware that the younger generations mostly view social media, with the occasional bit of streaming.

If the TV ads are mostly seen by the over 70s, and that is going to limit the number of new buyers.

On the other hand something going viral, it gets attention well beyond the social media platform on which it is first posted.
 
I can also remember higher interest rates, but then I'm 53. I think the problem is a lot of people in their mid twenties do NOT remember such rates, and those are the people who would need to take out a loan to buy a new Tesla.
Unless they are independently wealthy, anyone in their mid twenties that is buying a new car, Tesla or otherwise, is not thinking prudently. People in their twenties should be paying off all their student loans, furthering their education, saving/investing for downpayment on an appreciating asset (house), for a rainy day, and for retirement. Purchasing a new car comes much later, and only if they spend money wisely when young. Delayed gratification. Purchasing a quality used car that is 4 years old at 50% less than original cost is the route to go, a car that will last at least another 10 years before any major replacement parts are necessary. Teslas current models cater mainly to 40 year olds and higher. The Model 2 will cater to 30 year olds and higher.
 
All this talk about educating consumers and ads, suddenly my brain farted out the hilarious concept of EV education ads done in the over the top in your face style of the propaganda segments of starship troopers.

WOULD YOU LIKE TO KNOW MORE?

Weekend off-topic but kinda on topic...

I'll be honest, I've considered starting a YouTube channel where I simply gush about my Model Y and show off it's great features. In essence make my own little ads for Tesla just to help spread the positive word about them.

I know there are tons of Tesla YT channels but I'm always still amazed how many people truly don't know anything about Tesla cars, and in the absence of effective official ads I keep considering how even a little dinky YT channel could possibly help even somewhat educate the masses.

I still ponder it from time to time.
 
[...] I've considered starting a YouTube channel where I simply gush about my Model Y and show off it's great features. In essence make my own little ads for Tesla just to help spread the positive word about them.

I know there are tons of Tesla YT channels but I'm always still amazed how many people truly don't know anything about Tesla cars, [...]

I still ponder it from time to time.
I would like and subscribe
 
A snapshot of recent price targets. Median in this list is $290

1697941478894.png
 
<sigh>
It should be concerning to TSLA investors that the CEO of the company is a) readily exposing themselves to such click-baity, intentionally-incorrect-to-generate-outrage posts, b) not immediately recognizing them as false, c) not even bothering to fact-check them for the ~60 seconds it would take to see the falseness, and d) re-broadcasting them to a much wider audience by responding with a comment that implies it could be real. It speaks a great deal about whom is in his orbit currently, and what his current worldview is.

For the record, the best source of information about the SEC is indeed the SEC, and it is sad that the SEC had to put out that as a post just earlier this week because of falsehoods such as the posts Musk just responded to. In this instance, here is both the SEC's summary of the proposed rule to require broker-dealers and advisors to address conflicts of interest with their use of predictive analytics where such use might lead to the broker-dealer or advisor putting the firm's interest above their client's interests, breaking their fiduciary duty. After reading the SEC's summary of the proposed rule, you (on the same page) see a link to the actual proposed rule wording so you can parse it yourself.


</sigh>


For amusement, I share this real post made by the SEC a few hours ago. The replies are entertaining.

Screenshot
View attachment 982742


Live link

 
The early presentation slides of GF1 showed an immense building. Far larger than what is currently built.

If I remember correctly, the original stated plan for the immense building renders for Giga Nevada was 35 GWh per year of on-site battery cell production, plus 15 GWh per year of imported cells, for a total of 50 GWh per year of battery pack production.

I vaguely remember the 35 GWh being targeted toward 500,000 vehicles packs per year...so an average of about 70 kWh per pack.

The actual cell production must have ended up more space efficient than originally planned, because I think Panasonic currently produces well over 40 GWh per year in the smaller/incomplete building.

I believe before 4680 was announced, they upped the target for the full building to 100 GWh on site plus 50 GWh of imported cells.

But since then, things have evolved further. I don't recall the new GWh targets, but Tesla announced with plans for 4680 and Semi production once they expand the factory in the next couple years.
 
Are these ads the type of thing that might go viral on social media?

I'm in the age group that still watches some TV, but mostly social media/streaming, but I am aware that the younger generations mostly view social media, with the occasional bit of streaming.

If the TV ads are mostly seen by the over 70s, and that is going to limit the number of new buyers.

On the other hand something going viral, it gets attention well beyond the social media platform on which it is first posted.
Eh, might go viral for the obvious (to anyone who saw the movie) reference if done in the same style, and it would definitely not be targeting the elderly but based on being a meme reference primarily people in their 40's to 50's, though younger people might laugh _at_ it and spread it by doing so. I've noticed a LOT of people doing reaction videos in the last couple of years on Youtube, so the number of people who might recognize the meme is actually pretty sizable beyond those who would have seen it when the movie was actually new.

Generally 30-60s each, they were interspersed within the movie itself, in a weird quasi-4th-wall-break, complete with an on-screen cursor mousing over the screen and clicking on another section of an interactive web page type thing (pretty cutting edge for 1997, I guess). Not sure if it would be better to completely embrace that in a direct sense as a bit of nostalgia and "LOL LOOK AT THIS OLD PERSON TECH" or move to a more modern style of showing a screen being swiped from one app or whatever to another instead. Maybe run both, and use demographic targeting to skew the changes of which one you see accordingly ?


Instead of "joining up to fight for the future" by joining the mobile infantry, a segment parodying that might be more along the lines of ditching ICE for EV or embracing solar power etc. You could potentially do a whole series of these as short segments with each being a different thing to do. The little kid popping out of the lineup in full armor can even still be there, just a little kid sitting in the driver's seat playing one of the racing games or whatever instead maybe?

Instead of the bug meteor / planetary defenses bit being better than ever, work it into something like "cost of ownership" or "charging convenience" are better than ever.

Instead of a bunch of mobile infantry handing weapons to kids (yikes, but totally on brand in context for the sort of in-universe propaganda it was), could be battery powered go karts, appropriately-sized (both kid and vehicle) ATX, electric jetskis, electric bikes etc.

"Come on you apes, you wanna live forever?!" can become "Come on you EVs, you wanna charge forever?!" with a bit on the different types of charging networks, speeds, battery SoC, how they impact charge rate etc.

I'm sure you can use your imagination with quite a few more of the segments to parody them into being pro-EV / pro-renewables, etc. Some obviously won't translate well... but you don't have to parody them all. There's plenty of fertile nostalgia meme to be farmed here.

And like all the clips end with "Would you like to know more?" as a link to more information, they could actually have a link to more in depth information on whatever topic was being discussed in the video. The actual videos that got pushed out as ads would probably end up being 15-30s, with both longer in depth videos and corresponding webpage articles (covering the same info, since some people prefer one or the other) being available through "Would you like to know more?" meme-link.

Probably more net-good (for the world) if these were done in a "vendor-neutral" way with someone other than Tesla doing it and by being honest (i.e., generally, Tesla is going look the best anyways, without putting a finger on the scales) vs Tesla themselves doing it as self promotion, but it can work that way too. Ideally of Tesla does it, it shouldn't be done in a way as to make other EVs look bad except where they deserve it (i.e., terrible charge times or something), rather promoting Tesla but also raising all boats to mangle a phrase.
 
Weekend off-topic but kinda on topic...

I'll be honest, I've considered starting a YouTube channel where I simply gush about my Model Y and show off it's great features. In essence make my own little ads for Tesla just to help spread the positive word about them.

I know there are tons of Tesla YT channels but I'm always still amazed how many people truly don't know anything about Tesla cars, and in the absence of effective official ads I keep considering how even a little dinky YT channel could possibly help even somewhat educate the masses.

I still ponder it from time to time.

Better to do a different subject but feature tesla eg fishing/mountain biking with tesla, mortgage/investing/sensible spending. They come for the subject, get educated on tesla

This financial youtuber recommends model y (not performance, as he bought and is in pictures/video. He recommends Long Range) Post in thread 'Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable' Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

The video is a follow up to his video on whether to buy new or used for retirement car. He got so many comments on buying tesla instead of used ICE that he bought a Tesla to try.

To my mind this is the way to go and try to nibble at each next likely market segment.

There's a large driving school near me that has a single model Y. Would be great to see more.

I see many women driving teslas, but I have seen stats for UK that suggest men buy/lease more teslas. I think these stats are questionable as in UK cars are often driven by both of the couple. In many jobs, salary sacrifice company cars are a great deal. Often notionally the male's company car but their spouse or even kids (minimum 25 years old, other restrictions) can also be insured. Many of the notional vehicle keepers work from home or commute by train, so usage by women is probably higher than these stats. A second car would probably be smaller and cheaper than model y and safer to park at a train station car park, so better suited to the work from home/commuting spouse rather than the person needing room for car seats etc. Not exclusive, but general trend would be safer, bigger car for school run.

Point is, social media (not just youtube) that aligns with different people's interests featuring tesla incidentally to main subject are very useful.

Some people are mostly Facebook, Instagram etc. So not just YouTube which may have a demographic bias.

The flocks of Tesla driving around, driven by neighbours are also useful.
 
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This video is good news:
It compares a model 3 against the MG4 EV in a real world UK road trip. The Tesla supercharging costs were about HALF that of the MG, and the conclusion for the whole road trip experience was... just get the Tesla.
The MG4 is my bellweather car that tells me if Tesla is in trouble. Its really pretty good, and cheaper than a Tesla. I think as a city runaround 2nd car its still likely better value than a model 3, but not as a main car.
Good to see independent reviewers covering the comparison.

We still need a small model 2 here.
 
This video is good news:
It compares a model 3 against the MG4 EV in a real world UK road trip. The Tesla supercharging costs were about HALF that of the MG, and the conclusion for the whole road trip experience was... just get the Tesla.
The MG4 is my bellweather car that tells me if Tesla is in trouble. Its really pretty good, and cheaper than a Tesla. I think as a city runaround 2nd car its still likely better value than a model 3, but not as a main car.
Good to see independent reviewers covering the comparison.

We still need a small model 2 here.
Short range MG4 (LFP battery) is probably winner in its price segment, Long range mg4 loses to model 3 RWD / standard range. Cross shopping between them is probably positive for TM3RWD, maybe even TM3 Long Range.
 
Better to do a different subject but feature tesla eg fishing/mountain biking with tesla, mortgage/investing/sensible spending. They come for the subject, get educated on tesla

This financial youtuber recommends model y (not performance, as he bought and is in pictures/video. He recommends Long Range) Post in thread 'Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable' Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

The video is a follow up to his video on whether to buy new or used for retirement car. He got so many comments on buying tesla instead of used ICE that he bought a Tesla to try.

To my mind this is the way to go and try to nibble at each next likely market segment.

There's a large driving school near me that has a single model Y. Would be great to see more.

I see many women driving teslas, but I have seen stats for UK that suggest men buy/lease more teslas. I think these stats are questionable as in UK cars are often driven by both of the couple. In many jobs, salary sacrifice company cars are a great deal. Often notionally the male's company car but their spouse or even kids (minimum 25 years old, other restrictions) can also be insured. Many of the notional vehicle keepers work from home or commute by train, so usage by women is probably higher than these stats. A second car would probably be smaller and cheaper than model y and safer to park at a train station car park, so better suited to the work from home/commuting spouse rather than the person needing room for car seats etc. Not exclusive, but general trend would be safer, bigger car for school run.

Point is, social media (not just youtube) that aligns with different people's interests featuring tesla incidentally to main subject are very useful.

Some people are mostly Facebook, Instagram etc. So not just YouTube which may have a demographic bias.

The flocks of Tesla driving around, driven by neighbours are also useful.
Typically the man purchases the car, even if he's not going to be driving it much because it's well known that women are charged higher prices than men (exceptions are rare).
 
This video is good news:
It compares a model 3 against the MG4 EV in a real world UK road trip. The Tesla supercharging costs were about HALF that of the MG, and the conclusion for the whole road trip experience was... just get the Tesla.
The MG4 is my bellweather car that tells me if Tesla is in trouble. Its really pretty good, and cheaper than a Tesla. I think as a city runaround 2nd car its still likely better value than a model 3, but not as a main car.
Good to see independent reviewers covering the comparison.

We still need a small model 2 here.
Did the Tesla driver drive at normal speed with ac on? The other guy drove with ac off whole trip