Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I don't understand your post. What was the point of your link from 2016?

comma.ai is happening. They continue to sell a lot of hardware. So what did you mean?

The point is obvious: there is absolutely zero chance that the U.S. Federal NHTSA allows open source code sold as home-made kits to drive on public highways as Level 3 Autonomy.

ZERO.

 

[Usain]

The point is obvious: there is absolutely zero chance that the U.S. Federal NHTSA allows open source code sold as home-made kits to drive on public highways as Level 3 Autonomy.

ZERO.

NHTSA already allows Level 3. It will be a tough court case if they want to stop it.

comma.ai is Level 2 and George says it always will be. If someone wants to modify the code to allow Level 3 then NHTSA will have to figure out what law was broken and then go after each individual motorist. Otherwise, you can't prosecute the driver until there is an accident.

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the month:
Gigacasting Development *NEW*
Launch is Imminent Non investor CT thread - 4 weeks to go as of today
SpaceX Starship - Test Flight 2 - Starbase TX
All discussion of QuantumScape QS Drew weighs in on Toyota solid state likely being high cost
War and war if you wanna increase your ignore list
The demise of the OEMs The demise is accelerating
FSD discussion Rodeo coming when?
EV and Battery Credits Illinois plus changes in Jan just 2 months out
Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot Production ramp this month still?
Project Highland (Investor impact etc.)

 

[SunCatcher]

History will record that ~66 Million milliseconds ago an asteroid estimated to be about 6.2 m in length impacted Earth leading to the extinction of the dynosours:

Joe Tries to Shoot an Arrow Into the CyberTruck | JRE Clips

Bring it on!

Nah!!! (Thanks Carl Raymond!)

 

[2daMoon]

The point is obvious: there is absolutely zero chance that the U.S. Federal NHTSA allows open source code sold as home-made kits to drive on public highways as Level 3 Autonomy.

ZERO.

Commerce is most likely a requisite for any such rule-making.

If someone sells it across state lines, it can be federally regulated.
If they give it away (i.e.: Open Source), then the burden of use and liability may fall upon the end user under Common Law.

Any legislation which restricts rights reserved by the constitution (life, liberty, property) is often rendered null in court. Congress is prohibited from creating law that restricts reserved rights. Though they have absolute jurisdiction over law regarding matters of interstate commerce.

If one source were to sell the hardware, but another source gives away the software, it might be that the software cannot be regulated.
If the hardware being sold does not present a danger in and of itself, without the software, it may be that it cannot be regulated either.

Creating statutes can become quite convoluted.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Kudos to journalist Alistair Barr and Business Insider, for jeopardizing their ad revenue in search of truth.
Aptly titled "Tesla advantage is even clearer as competition in Detroit falls flat"
Excellent article on where the auto industry is headed, and who will head it.

Tesla advantage is even clearer as competition in Detroit falls flat — Business Insider

Traditional auto companies were supposed to catch Tesla in the EV market. This past week shows how badly Detroit has failed with EVs. The whole auto market is getting tougher. Tesla looks better prepared than Ford and GM.

stocks.apple.com

 

[Knightshade]

Also-

Commerce is most likely a requisite for any such rule-making.

If someone sells it across state lines, it can be federally regulated.
If they give it away (i.e.: Open Source), then the burden of use and liability may fall upon the end user under Common Law.

Any legislation which restricts rights reserved by the constitution is often rendered null in court. Congress is prohibited from creating law that restricts reserved rights. Though they have absolute jurisdiction over law regarding matters of interstate commerce.

If one source were to sell the hardware, but another source gives away the software, it might be that the software cannot be regulated.
If the hardware being sold does not present a danger in and of itself, without the software, it may be that it cannot be regulated either.

Creating statutes can become quite convoluted.

On top of your excellent points is the fact the NHTSA currently does not, and is not required to, "approve" any >L2 system for public roads. They leave that regulation entirely to the states right now--(who, in the states who've bothered to put anything on the books, mostly just say "File a form promsing your system is safe and it's fine with us!" with CA being the main exception)-- and as Usain points out there's already consumer L3 on the roads today in a couple of states.


So the whole "no way NHTSA approves this" argument makes little sense across a variety of contexts.

 

[NicoV]

Received an e-mail from Tesla.
See here (in Dutch, but that will be no problem for NicoV ).

I didn’t get such an email (yet?). Hopefully it will be offered in Belgium too. Since I‘m going to buy a new S anyway by March, it would be a nice promotion.

 

[cliff harris]

Kudos to journalist Alistair Barr and Business Insider, for jeopardizing their ad revenue in search of truth.
Aptly titled "Tesla advantage is even clearer as competition in Detroit falls flat"
Excellent article on where the auto industry is headed, and who will head it.

Tesla advantage is even clearer as competition in Detroit falls flat — Business Insider

Traditional auto companies were supposed to catch Tesla in the EV market. This past week shows how badly Detroit has failed with EVs. The whole auto market is getting tougher. Tesla looks better prepared than Ford and GM.

stocks.apple.com

Writing an article doesn't mean promoting it. Business Insider was literally founded by a guy kicked out of the finance industry for fraud. Never trust a word they type. They will have an article like this they can wave around to claim non-bias, but I expect it to get 1/50th the promotion of the FUD hit pieces hat those corrupt liars are routinely told to print.

 

[mongo]

Do they factor in the electricity cost of refining petrol/diesel? I asked ChatGPT a series of questions:

How much electricity does it take to refine a gallon of gas?​

​

The amount of electricity required to refine a gallon of gas can vary depending on several factors, such as the specific refining processes, technology used, and the efficiency of the refining facility. On average, it's estimated that refining a gallon of gasoline consumes about 6 kWh (kilowatt-hours) of electricity. However, this value can fluctuate across different refineries and their operational practices.​

​

How far will an EV go on 6kWh?​

​

The distance an electric vehicle (EV) can travel on 6 kWh of electricity varies widely depending on the car's efficiency, battery capacity, and driving conditions. On average, an EV might travel roughly 20-25 miles on 6 kWh of electricity. However, this can fluctuate significantly based on factors such as the vehicle's energy consumption rate, driving speed, weather, terrain, and other variables.​

​

What’s the average fuels consumption of a family car?​

​

The average fuel consumption of a family car can range between 25 to 30 miles per gallon (MPG) for a combined city and highway driving cycle. However, this can vary widely based on the car's make, model, engine size, driving habits, and road conditions. Some smaller, more fuel-efficient cars might achieve higher MPG, while larger or less efficient vehicles might have lower fuel economy.​

Now I'm no mathematician, but it seems to me that although the distribution infrastructure may need to be upgraded over time, the electricity itself basically comes free...

Point of clarification: The 4-6-??kWh number is the amount of energy needed, not pure electricity usage.
Refineries provide a lot of their own energy via burning of hydrocarbons.
Stopping refining does not add 6kWh/gallon of supply to the grid.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Ron Baron thinks they´ll make another 5 times on TSLA in 7 to 10 years:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719751126927409650

$4 Trillion = 6x vs. today = ~$1300.……by 2033.
I thought he said previously $1500 by 2030.
Is that a slight backtrack, or perhaps he was speaking in round numbers?

 

[GOVA]

Wow, for a state that's essentially broke and talking about how to fund their pension obligations, they sure can find some new ways to spend money.

Some want to vote Chicago out of the state. Might work.

Writing an article doesn't mean promoting it. Business Insider was literally founded by a guy kicked out of the finance industry for fraud. Never trust a word they type. They will have an article like this they can wave around to claim non-bias, but I expect it to get 1/50th the promotion of the FUD hit pieces hat those corrupt liars are routinely told to print.

It is like BP is good now because they will install EV Tesla painted over chargers.

 

[AndrewZ]

Ron’s comments about autonomous driving don’t make a lot of sense to me, Mobileye as one example already sells Level 2 systems to automakers but their Average System Price is like $50-60 per car because it’s just a bunch of cameras and the software. It can bring in more revenue, but not sure how that specifically is the driver to a $4trillion valuation.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Ron’s comments about autonomous driving don’t make a lot of sense to me, Mobileye as one example already sells Level 2 systems to automakers but their Average System Price is like $50-60 per car because it’s just a bunch of cameras and the software.

Wonder if he still has the stake in Cruise.

 

[thx1139]

Some want to vote Chicago out of the state. Might work.


It is like BP is good now because they will install EV Tesla painted over chargers.

You want to vote the vast, vast, vast majority of revenue and economic prosperity of the state out of the state. You honestly think anyone comes to Illinois for anything besides Chicago?

 

[hobbes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720060898323071052

EDIT: This is actually better, graphic and specifies its wholesale (local+exports) - would be great to have the 3/Y split as hardly any 3 delivered so far this year:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719998623977517489

 

[2daMoon]

PSA

The market appears to no longer be supporting further negativity on this forum as the increase in griping of late has resulted in a well-defined change of direction.

Please check the stock price movement prior to making further comments whose bias may have been wholly or partly influenced by concerns over the recent sub-200 price.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled ticker watch and forum frolic.

 

[hobbes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720062331755905070

 

[JusRelax]

Paging @dl003, I know you like wave analysis and all, but I think I've got a better technical cue.

View attachment 986695

View attachment 986697

Dang, 3 for 3 on this now. I should have had more faith and bet accordingly!

 

[Artful Dodger]

The market appears to no longer be supporting further negativity on this forum

Hammer time: