Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

That just says that it will alert when conditions are not met. It doesn't say new restrictions.

It literally does.

"The software update apparently will limit where Autosteer can be used."

"“If the driver attempts to engage Autosteer when conditions are not met for engagement, the feature will alert the driver it is unavailable through visual and audible alerts, and Autosteer will not engage"


Currently AS will engage on roads it's not intended for. The story claims that now it won't. Otherwise they'd only be mentioning the added alerts not the fact it won't engage as a change.

The AP story could be wrong of course- I suppose we will have to wait on release notes for the actual SW update.

 

[FastEddieB]

They desperately need to come up with a better term than “recall” for this sort of OTA update.

Might I suggest something like “Mandatory System (or Software) Update”? Acronym: MSU?

 

[The Accountant]

A recall could impact a company's financials if:
1. the recall repairs are materially costly and or,
2. the recall news dissuades individuals from buying the product.

In this case, I believe this recall does neither and will not impact Tesla's income or cash flow. If share price reacts to this, it's temporary.

 

[The Accountant]

From link:
The software update apparently will limit where Autosteer can be used.

“If the driver attempts to engage Autosteer when conditions are not met for engagement, the feature will alert the driver it is unavailable through visual and audible alerts, and Autosteer will not engage,” the recall documents said

The headline states Autopilot and the recall document states Autosteer. I don't have time to read the recall document; is this distinction important?

 

[CHGolferJim]

When has Siddiqui ever written a balanced or positive article about Tesla, he’s as reliable as Kolodny.

It appears WaPo got word of the coming “massive recall” re Autosteer, and prepared the hit piece so they could act like they’re on the side of consumers/readers.

 

[mongo]

FWIW my remarks were based on this story:

Tesla recalls nearly all vehicles sold in US to fix system that monitors drivers using Autopilot

Tesla is recalling nearly all vehicles sold in the U.S., more than 2 million, to update software and fix a defective system when using Autopilot.

apnews.com

From link:
The software update apparently will limit where Autosteer can be used.

“If the driver attempts to engage Autosteer when conditions are not met for engagement, the feature will alert the driver it is unavailable through visual and audible alerts, and Autosteer will not engage,” the recall documents said

Rather that post media spin, read the recall document I linked to.
It does say “If the driver attempts to engage Autosteer when conditions are not met for engagement, the feature will alert the driver it is unavailable through visual and audible alerts, and Autosteer will not engage,”
in the defect section. As in, what it does currently.

So, not only is that not a description of the change, it is a description of its ability to be activated off highway.
That section:

...

When Autosteer is engaged, it uses several controls to monitor that the driver is engaged in continuous and sustained responsibility for the vehicle’s operation as required. If the driver attempts to engage Autosteer when conditions are not met for engagement, the feature will alert the driver it is unavailable through visual and audible alerts, and Autosteer will not engage. Likewise, if the driver operates Autosteer in conditions where its functionality may be limited or has become deteriorated due to environmental or other circumstances, the feature may warn the driver with visual and audible alerts, restrict speed, and/or instruct the driver to intervene immediately.

In certain circumstances when Autosteer is engaged, the prominence and scope of the feature’s controls may not be sufficient to prevent driver misuse of the SAE Level 2 advanced driver-assistance feature.

Description of the Safety Risk : In certain circumstances when Autosteer is engaged, if a driver misuses the SAE Level 2 advanced driver-assistance feature such that they fail to maintain continuous and sustained responsibility for vehicle operation and are unprepared to intervene, fail to recognize when the feature is canceled or not engaged, and/or fail to recognize when the feature is operating in situations where its functionality may be limited, there may be an increased risk of a collision

 

[mongo]

The headline states Autopilot and the recall document states Autosteer. I don't have time to read the recall document; is this distinction important?

Nope, autosteer is a subfuction of basic Autopilot

 

[philw1776]

I honestly believe Optimus will contribute substantially to revenues before FSD does!

Being slightly pedantic here, my take is that Optimus will realize operational cost savings thereby improving margins before elusive real FSD does.

 

[Xd85]

A recall could impact a company's financials if:
1. the recall repairs are materially costly and or,
2. the recall news dissuades individuals from buying the product.

In this case, I believe this recall does neither and will not impact Tesla's income or cash flow. If share price reacts to this, it's temporary.

If only SP was based on

1. Income
2. Cashflow

 

[Artful Dodger]

12 Days of Christmas - Tesla Edition​

By the Artful Dodger (Dec 2023)

Over this Yuletide season, I will post a daily installment focusing on Tesla products, past, present, and future.

Day 01: A partridge in a pear tree | Roadster Proof of Concept​

• GM EV1 - crushing the EV Dream (Nov 2003)
  • Elon Musk on X: "Few people know that we started Tesla when GM forcibly recalled all electric cars from customers in 2003 & then crushed them in a junkyard." /X (Jun 9, 2017)
  • Elon Musk on X: "Since big car companies were killing their EV programs, the only chance was to create an EV company, even tho it was almost certain to fail." /X (Jun 9, 2017)
• OG Production Hell: failure is not an option:
  • Lesson 1 - EVs must be designed as electric from the ground up
    Elon learned through experience that, even though Tesla bought 'Gliders' (rolling chassis w/o engine) from Lotus, almost every part had to be replaced anyway to work well as an EV
  • Lesson 2 - Customer loyalty matters:
    With each setback in preparing the initial batch of Roadsters, Elon had to face his customers. There were delays, price increases, and departures (yes, including Executives). Elon depended on his customers as financial backers, and his de facto PR team. Elon became Tesla CEO in these years because he couldn't find anyone else well-suited to the job. This would become obvious during the trials in the decade to come
  • Lesson 3 - Never Give Up
    Fledgling Tesla Motors came within days of going bankrupt in Christmas 2008. Only a last minute cash+stock deal with Daimler Motors prevented the company from closing its doors. The result for Daimler was the 'Smart EV' (powered by a Tesla drivetrain and bty and a tidy (now tiny) profit for Daimler (who sold early and did not continue this EV program)
• The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) | Elon Musk (Aug 02, 2006)
  • Lesson 4: Start from the top, work down to the bottom:
    "The strategy of Tesla is to enter at the high end of the market, where customers are prepared to pay a premium, and then drive down market as fast as possible to higher unit volume and lower prices with each successive model."
  • Lesson 5:Self-Financing (reinvest profits for growth) my 2023 updates
    • Build a line of premium Sedans/SUVs
    • Use that money to build mid-range Sedans/SUVs
    • Use that money to build a truly affordable World Car
• Exponential growth:
  • Linear vs. Exponential growth is a major advantage to the Tesla business model, and will be discussed at length in a few days
• Roadster legacy:
  • Bty pack upgrades. Not building throwaway cars. Did this motivate OTA?
  • a warning shot at Mars:
    • Musk's SpaceX is going to make Life Interplanetary
    • the Falcon Heavy 1st Test Flight was a marketing + PR triumph for Tesla
    • Cybertruck is the official SpaceX Mars rover
  • Open Source: All your CAD are belong to us
    • even now, the OG Roadster project keeps giving back to the EV community, as Tesla has released and Open-Sourced all its CAD/design files. Hobbiests, University Engineering Programs, and EV startups now have FEWER barriers to entry to the auto market, IF they go EV.

Tesla's IPO'd on June 29, 2010 at a Market value of $1.7B on 93.5M shares:

• Tesla Announces Pricing of Initial Public Offering | ir.tesla.com (June 27, 2010))
• Tesla IPO Shares Pop, Drop, And Rally. Market Values It At $1.7 | techcrunch.com (2010-06-29)

Roadster's production run was over by 2013, just as the Model S program began.

Tomorrow's installment:

• Day 02: Two turtle doves | S/X fraternal twins go mainstream

Merry Christmas to all, Happy Holidays!

Lodger

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think the market liked the robot more than hated the "recall."
... ya think?

 

[FreqFlyer]

So Model 3 loses the 7500 tax credit on most trims. A part of me thinks Tesla has something up their sleeve regarding the US Model 3 Highland. Still think it may switch to Castings and 4680s. Especially since the Performance has yet to be announced.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Another embarassing moment I'm witness on the TMC investors' forum.

People have been ranting on how big a deal the $7500 tax credit moving to a point of sale rebate was a big deal for 2024.

But when the entire $7500 gets erased for the model 3 instead, nary a discussion.

Not only that, but people are asking why the stocking isn't going up on the Optimus news. LOLOL.

Hello? Model 3 demand is going to crater even more than this year (which 30% price cuts say it did).

Who in the world is going to buy a Model 3? Prices will have to be cut to where gross margins are in single digits.

Q1 is already a seasonally weak quarter, and now it will be even worse.

Outside of Tesla Energy growth, this all but ensures Q1 EPS around $0.5 at best. Annualized, you might be talking about a stock with shrinking earnings and a PE ratio over 100 at current share price.

No, that terrible news means the stock isn't going up much from here. Prepare for a big dip under $200 sometime at or before May 2024.

 

[Snerruc]

Honestly I was wondering the same, I didn't inquire at the time, but I will endeavor to find out!

Depends on the state, the contract, how good a customer you are and other factors to numerous to mention. It’s about as rare as chicken teeth, but I know of a case similar. Having a ton of money or pull helps.

 

[unk45]

Get away from US government/ union sabotage

That really has nothing to do with it.
As @UkNorthampton pointed out, Mexico has much broader and more favorable trade deals the does the US. particularly for all the important parts of South America, the raw materials and finished products are, in many cases mops favorably treated than are the US/Canada ones. Further, those export favorable counties for Mexico also tend to have favorable deals with China too, so Chinese component sourcing is less fraught than it is in the US.

It's rather facile to blame unions on everything, but it 'just ain't so'.

 

[Singuy]

Another embarassing moment I'm witness on the TMC investors' forum.

People have been ranting on how big a deal the $7500 tax credit moving to a point of sale rebate was a big deal for 2024.

But when the entire $7500 gets erased for the model 3 instead, nary a discussion.

Not only that, but people are asking why the stocking isn't going up on the Optimus news. LOLOL.

Hello? Model 3 demand is going to crater even more than this year (which 30% price cuts say it did).

Who in the world is going to buy a Model 3? Prices will have to be cut to where gross margins are in single digits.

Q1 is already a seasonally weak quarter, and now it will be even worse.

Outside of Tesla Energy growth, this all but ensures Q1 EPS around $0.5 at best. Annualized, you might be talking about a stock with shrinking earnings and a PE ratio over 100 at current share price.

No, that terrible news means the stock isn't going up much from here. Prepare for a big dip under $200 sometime at or before May 2024.

If only there was a refresh around the corner that can juice up demand...and a reduction in interest rate going into 2024...if only...

 

[Drumheller]

If only there was a refresh around the corner that can juice up demand...and a reduction in interest rate going into 2024...if only...

Fed interest rate reduction is still speculation, at this point, as far as I know.

It does seem likely that Tesla will focus on selling model Y while retooling for a model 3 refresh in North America.

 

[2daMoon]

Another embarassing moment I'm witness on the TMC investors' forum.

People have been ranting on how big a deal the $7500 tax credit moving to a point of sale rebate was a big deal for 2024.

But when the entire $7500 gets erased for the model 3 instead, nary a discussion.

Not only that, but people are asking why the stocking isn't going up on the Optimus news. LOLOL.

Hello? Model 3 demand is going to crater even more than this year (which 30% price cuts say it did).

Who in the world is going to buy a Model 3? Prices will have to be cut to where gross margins are in single digits.

Q1 is already a seasonally weak quarter, and now it will be even worse.

Outside of Tesla Energy growth, this all but ensures Q1 EPS around $0.5 at best. Annualized, you might be talking about a stock with shrinking earnings and a PE ratio over 100 at current share price.

No, that terrible news means the stock isn't going up much from here. Prepare for a big dip under $200 sometime at or before May 2024.

Hi Chicken Little! How's tricks?

I'm holding the perspective on incentives that Elon does. Tesla doesn't need these handouts in order to succeed. So, a couple of versions of Model 3 losing their qualification won't make much, if any, difference in the long run.

Add to this how the Highland version will come to the US as a version that has lower production costs and higher demand from buyers, and it will be a wash. If it uses locally sourced batteries it will get those incentives back.

Go the next step and compare Tesla EV sales to each, and then to all, other BEV manufacturers to further put this into perspective. Despite Tesla being unable to get this credit, the others won't be able to either. So it is also a wash in regard to the impact to all BEVs. Further, on the models the other OEMs offer, the numbers of vehicles being delivered make this insignificant anyway. (I'm sure you are also neglecting to recognize Tesla's lead in developing their own domestic production of batteries)

What Dan Ives calls the "Green Tidal Wave" is gaining speed, not losing it. Tony Seba's transition expectations are on track.

So, rather than sitting on the beach munching on your Nothing Burger, while being worried you might step on a crab if you go swimming, get in the water and paddle out, Surf's UP!

 

[mongo]

Fed interest rate reduction is still speculation, at this point, as far as I know.

It does seem likely that Tesla will focus on selling model Y while retooling for a model 3 refresh in North America.

There is also the Canadian market that has been being supported by Shanghai imports...

 

[AndrewZ]

People should probably be looking out to 2025 where inclusion of any critical battery minerals from FEOCs will eliminate the tax credit -- that will be the real hurdle, much moreso than battery components.

As things stand right now in terms of the tax credit benefits, 2024 will be a step down from 2023 and probably almost no vehicles will qualify for credits in 2025 -- depending on how things are interpreted and implemented, of course, and/or any other political changes.