Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Anyone in any doubt about the company future should take a look at spacex and the starship program.
They are currently on booster #30, even though they have only done 2 proper tests, and thus destroyed 2. Why bother making so many? why would anyone build ship and booster time and time again, when they havent even reliably reached orbit?

Its because elon thinks BIG and differently. He doesnt want to build and launch 4 starships, he wants hundreds, probably thousands, which means he needs to perfect the MASS production. And the thing is, he is focused on that already, probably a year before the design is finally proven.

This is exactly what's happening with Optimus as I conclude with very high confidence.

Factory Design is combined with Product Design Cycles from the get go. The best non-example was legacy trying to build a BEV on old Assy lines vs ground up factory. Elon has repeatedly stated how the Factory is the real magic that gets to a Factory that builds the Factory.

 

[uscbucsfan]

S/X just had their best quarter in 5 years. They are not going anywhere. They have not always had the latest/ greatest tech. They are still using 18650s for crying out loud but they are flagship vehicles and are incredibly important for defining Tesla as a luxury brand. Their future is bright

The 18650s were new chemistry for the refresh and they used them for performance. Not sure what the "for crying out loud" means.

S isn't going anywhere...I could see X going away some day, but Elon loves the X.

 

[tslagreen]

Maybe the drop in share price is more driven by the predictions by 'those who should know' that 2024 will only see a YOY increase of around 20%? The share price is supported to an extent by perceived big growth? Also growth in revenue may be flat over 2024 - I don't know, I'm clutching at straws to keep faith and continue to HODL

Also the incredible Cybertruck hasn't restored all the magic that's been tarnished by delays (or misses) in CT, FSD, Starship, X turnaround, Semi, Roadster, and so on. Easy FUD clickbait....

The whole market is down today and TSLA fared well yesterday in a down market, so I wouldn't read too much into it.

 

[Tony73]

The market is so rigged it’s not even funny anymore. If they hadn’t beat expectations, the stock would be down 30%. They beat the number and the stock is still dropping. This is why Wall Street is a complete joke. I called it earlier in this thread that the deliveries would be over 480,000( 3 months ago) just tired of the rigged game that we are in. The media bias, and the general hate against Tesla is out of control

Rant over

Tesla selling 1.8 million-ish vehicles this year was already priced into the stock. A marginal beat was never going to move the needle or prevent Tesla from falling with rest of the market. The market would like to see clear evidence that margins bottomed in q3 or $200 could be back in play very quickly. Another buying opportunity if you are a long term bull

 

[ChiefRollo]

Ouch.....

The Tesla Model S Has Gone From Game-Changer To Afterthought

Tesla is the Model 3 and Model Y company now. But don't forget about the Model S.

insideevs.com

Doubt there will be a replacement. Elon has stated it and the X may ride off into the sunset one day. Of this is Tesla and things change. The S and X had a great fourth quarter. Or was it clearing inventory for another "refresh"?

Not sure of the magnitude of impact but I felt compelled to buy the X this past quarter due to the FUSC transfer. Given first-hand experience with both the X and the Y, at current price level there’s good value with the X.

 

[Krugerrand]

You called that Tesla would move the S/X to the "other vehicles" section in sales reports years ago?

Pretty impressive.

Don’t be obtuse.

 

[Orbit]

I agree completely. I think Tesla should simply repeat, VERBATIM, the guidance from Q4 2020, 'average 50% compound growth rate long-term, some years a little more, some a little less'.

If I remember correctly, Elon backed off the 50% annual compound growth rate in a reply tweet.

Maybe it was backing off 50% revenue growth. I can’t remember.

 

[alhounos]

I could definitely see the X being replaced by a 3-row SUV based on the Cybertruck platform.

 

[RubberToe]

First, thank you for the gracious and kind words- and also the same regarding yourself.



I always try to!




This is why I prefer engineering- not marketing. Where one cares about what can actually be done, not what we want to sound like can be done


The S&P estimate you cite breaks it down by region... interestingly their estimate puts (by far) the largest % growth for 2024 in...the US. Which just practically killed federal EV subsidies with the sourcing changes. They predict a 66.4% YoY increase 23->24... AFAIK '23 estimates are around 1.3M sold in the US, meaning they're calling for about 860,000 more EVs to be sold in 2024 in the US alone.

From whom?

With most legacy pulling BACK on scaling production for 2024 (and GM outright killing the only model it sells that anyone really buys), and even the most optimistic such as yourself calling for Tesla to only increase by about 700k worldwide where are those 860k additional BEVs in the US alone coming from?

Look worldwide though- 9.6M this year- 13.3M next year. That's 3.7 million more EVs that someone needs to make. Again assuming your optimistic 700k for Tesla is right, where do the other 3 million come from? BYD was only 1.6M BEVs this year. Even with 50% YoY growth that only gets you 800k of the 3M you need.


So it's not that I think Tesla is going to lose market share-- it's that I find the idea companies who are NOT Tesla are going to magically make 3 million extra EVs next year to be...unlikely?

And once you accept the 13.3M isn't realistic based on the stated near-term intent of nearly every player who isn't Tesla or BYD, you easily reach the set of math where Tesla doesn't lose market share even when they "only" produce a more realistic 2-2.1M for 2024.

Instead I expect EV sales growth to be lower than S&P seems to suggest-- largely because we're finally reaching the point where it's obvious only a very few companies are serious about increasing the supply of them- and even they have certain constraints around pricing and battery sourcing.



BTW for a contrasting prediction on growth-

Ford halves 2024 electric F-150 production plans on slowing demand

Ford is cutting 2024 production goals in half for its F-150 Lightning EV pickup truck on slowing demand for battery-powered models. Read on.

financialpost.com

They cite UBS predicting 2024 US BEV growth at only 11% (and I'd expect most of that to be Tesla- but that won't get you remotely near 700k extra sales)

Good discussion.

I also will duck the question of what Tesla vehicle production will be in 2024. But as a long term investor, not too concerned about that...

The important thing going forward is company growth, and whether the various irons that Tesla has in the fire can support the current 80x PE ratio. I don't think that 2024 production numbers will significantly affect the PE ratio in the long term (3-5 years), because of what Tesla is executing right now.

Energy is scaling and very profitable. Cybertruck is in production, and the rest of 2024 will be all about ramping production and decreasing costs. The next car (Model 2) is designed and the assembly line is being constructed. Once that car goes on sale for less than the Model 3, the demand will be off the charts. Hopefully Elon is under promising and over delivering with the assembly line coming before EOY 2024. Tesla is also working on cost reduction, which is going to help chip away at the missing $7,500. As you said @Knightshade, this will hit sales short term, but any ongoing production cost decreases allows them to lower the price, and ANY lowering of the price creates additional demand.

Texas is spinning up additional 4680 production lines. The cathode plant will be up and running soon, and well as the new Lithium processing facility nearby. I'm not sure what level of cost reduction those bring, but the fact that Tesla is doing it implies that there will be cost reduction. If Optimus robots can be used in any capacity on the assembly line, that will reduce costs. And no doubt the cost of the robots will be on the same declining slope and increasing capability as the vehicles they will be working on.

I think that if Tesla gets the first production line done for the new car this year, then they will most likely green light two more factories to be dedicated to producing those cars. Those could get completed by EOY 2025 or even sooner, with both then ramping up production. I also think that it's important to remember that Tesla and EVs in general still have a long path ahead for decreasing production costs, likely from battery chemistry and giga-casting, and also more automation. The release of the lower cost car will bring the massive demand/production spike that is ahead. The Model Y update, if it's as successful as the Model 3 update, will also significantly add to sales. Count me among the crowd waiting for that.

TL;DR: I'm not concerned if 2024 production is 2.2 or 2.5 million, given the above, it will have zero impact on the Tesla stock price 3 years out.

RT

P.S. After the recent TSLA stock doubling in 2023, I wouldn't be surprised for a much less stellar 2024, as everyone is focused on production numbers. If they can get the cheaper car on sale this year, I would bet big $$$ that the PE doesn't get below 60x at the end of 2024.

 

[Drumheller]

The stock price is at the mercy of the gigantic options expiration in two weeks. The stock price isn’t rigged.

The first sentence, in my opinion, clearly explains that the stock price is rigged.

 

[ChiefRollo]

This describes my past behavior, boats and cars on loan using INTC stock options for the down payment. Was a long time ago, but serious short-term thinking similar to many companies, even now.

So for today... we're gonna pass on the Founder's Series CyberTruck. Will wait for a better price and range, and hope for the $7K FSD or other discounts as they come. I'd rather buy (hold on to) more TSLA stock instead. The sale is happening right now!

There was a comment here a few days after the delivery event regarding CT members not taking the offer (implying the demand in general will also fizzle). To the contrary as I believe I am among the wise here, with most still buying banana's on sale to save 50 cents. A few took it based on YOLO and 10x in the bank. Well deserved and congats!

For what it’s worth, I have been fighting the urge hard over the past few days to not pull the trigger on the FS CT AWD. While I think I can comfortably afford it, I can’t get over the price difference of $100K versus $67.5K (post federal and CO incentives). The only catch is I don’t know when I can get my hands on the standard CT AWD.

 

[ChiefRollo]

S/X just had their best quarter in 5 years. They are not going anywhere. They have not always had the latest/ greatest tech. They are still using 18650s for crying out loud but they are flagship vehicles and are incredibly important for defining Tesla as a luxury brand. Their future is bright.

There is ZERO evidence to suggest they will ever be discontinued.

I don’t see a strong reason to discontinue them; Tesla can milk sunk cost that went into their development while throwing some minor upgrades here and there. They’re perfect to test the market with new features due to small volume while inferring premium value to those features as they get transferred to the mass market models.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

So just reading thru that inside EV’s article again. Am I understanding that cyber trucks can’t charge at any CCS charger even if they have an NACS plug? That seems counter productive to sales.

The Tesla Cybertruck Can't Take A CCS Charging Adapter

To mark the death of the connector in Tesla’s eyes, the truck is designed to physically reject a CCS1 to NACS adapter.

insideevs.com

 

[2daMoon]

The only catch is I don’t know when I can get my hands on the standard CT AWD.

Oh, that's easy, "2 weeks" of course!

 

[jerry33]

The 18650s were new chemistry for the refresh and they used them for performance. Not sure what the "for crying out loud" means.

S isn't going anywhere...I could see X going away some day, but Elon loves the X.

So do people who own the X.

 

[uscbucsfan]

So just reading thru that inside EV’s article again. Am I understanding that cyber trucks can’t charge at any CCS charger even if they have an NACS plug? That seems counter productive to sales.

The Tesla Cybertruck Can't Take A CCS Charging Adapter

To mark the death of the connector in Tesla’s eyes, the truck is designed to physically reject a CCS1 to NACS adapter.

insideevs.com

Yes. That's what I keep repeating.

It may only be temporary. There are very few in actual customers hands...AP doesn't even work. Give Tesla time.

 

[jerry33]

I could definitely see the X being replaced by a 3-row SUV based on the Cybertruck platform.

Only if it has the Falcon Wing doors. The big problem with the S was that my friends, who aren't all the flexible, banged their head almost every time they entered or exited the S. The X eliminated that problem. Don't know about the Cybertruck's rear door yet--not even one video shows a full sized adult entering and exiting the rear (not sitting the rear--plenty of those). I have seen one video of a child entering the rear.

 

[ChiefRollo]

I could definitely see the X being replaced by a 3-row SUV based on the Cybertruck platform.

Once the CT form factor is well validated / accepted by a decent portion of the market, I would not be surprised to see its permutations into non-truck forms. Perhaps the age of practicality and more objective (less subjective) wants is upon us. Do we dare to dream the shackles of decades-long marketing (behavioral conditioning) to influence what we think we want in a vehicle (to hide lack of real innovation) is coming loose / falling off?

 

[mongo]

For what it’s worth, I have been fighting the urge hard over the past few days to not pull the trigger on the FS CT AWD. While I think I can comfortably afford it, I can’t get over the price difference of $100K versus $67.5K (post federal and CO incentives). The only catch is I don’t know when I can get my hands on the standard CT AWD.

Oh that's easy. Get the Beast, it comes with ~$20k of accessories (if you can utilize the full $4k installation credit and Gateway) and it doesn't qualify for the tax credit anyway. Delivery timing is ugg though.

(Am I rationalizing correctly?)

 

[MP3Mike]

They are still using 18650s for crying out loud but they are flagship vehicles and are incredibly important for defining Tesla as a luxury brand.

18650 is just a size/format. They have continually updated the chemistry inside them. In fact, they have the best performance and charging characteristics of all of the Tesla batteries right now. (There is a reason they didn't switch the Model S to 2170s or 4680s.)