Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

I kept hearing all week that Q4 was the lowest quarter in Europe but it turned out to be higher than Q3 and Q2.
Not bad considering the interest rate environment.
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I'd like to rate FUD purity. This one appears to be 100% pure. Rumors are completely opposite reality and data.

Spoiler: New Rules

1. FUD shall be rated for purity whenever possible. (100% is a pure lie with intent to harm the mission.)
2. Networks will have an aggregate FUDness indicator and trend chart over time.
3. We will recognize these improvements, but will be on guard - Trust but verify.
4. Those who convert and become clean of all FUD will be welcomed once again!
5. FUD discovery will generate points as measured by ChatGPT4. (The score of his thread would be quite high.)
6. Elon shall publicly review scores with high-lights and low-lights as needed.
7. The FUD-buster symbol and trophy shall be a bathtub, 1/8th scale.

Note: Beware the sneaky. Although seemingly harmless, it's the random FUD @10% to be concerned with as it pulls in the reader, and gains trust in some areas as needed for brain pleasure. Game Theory.

(Edit to add the new standard.)

Good Morning!

 

[UkNorthampton]

What is happening in Germany and UK? Lack of allocation may explain UK but not Germany. It has been bad in Germany all year with no obvious effect of the late incentive removal. I think both countries have been susceptible to a huge spike in anti-EV FUD in general with a massive effort against Tesla.

According to a majority of media in the UK, German economy is in free fall.

There might be a grain of truth in this, that alone might cut down on Teslas being bought as company cars. In much of Europe, company car sales are the vast majority, not sure in Germany.

In my old UK company car schemes, we were encouraged to take on the cars from employees who had left. I think you could go up a level in car or get some money or other benefits but that was years ago and I forget now.

Only takes a bit of uncertainty and companies and consumers cut back dramatically.

Higher lease rates due to interest rates and lower residuals are probably big factors.

In the UK, one of the biggest organisations in the world is the National Health System. Their car scheme was massive and only worked for EVs, many Teslas leased as "company cars". NHS is in... flux, so both NHS and employees might be unwilling to commit to long term leases. Many other public and private organisations are less confident on long term employment/leases.

Rest of Europe buying loads of Teslas, more than ever.

 

[jerry33]

I kept hearing all week that Q4 was the lowest quarter in Europe but it turned out to be higher than Q3 and Q2.
Not bad considering the interest rate environment.
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You get the lowest quarter by cherry-picking countries--works every time

 

[scaesare]

AMD releasing the next car rated chip generation, Tesla obviously will be using them in products to come

AMD Announces Automotive-Grade Ryzen Embedded V2000A Series - Phoronix

www.phoronix.com

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I don't know that it is obvious...

Those chips seem to be targeted at several functions Tesla does with their own FSD stack/computer: ADAS/AD; Radar/Lidar; Surroundview/parking, & Forward-looking Camera. Not sure where Tesla does their in-cabin Occupant Monitoring(suspect also FSD computer).

That arguably leaves only Infotainment. That's a lot of unused functionality (= die space = cost) if they implemented those chips...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Back when Rivian was over $100 per share he said it was going to $9, and not to buy it before then, as they were going to go through production hell like Tesla with the Model 3. I believe $12 was the low point, but anyone correctly calling an 80% return in one year probably shouldn't be ignored. I used to watch him regularly.

RT

Back when NKLA was over $65, majority of us here thought that it was going to $0. WE ALL SHOULD NOT BE IGNORED!!!

 

[The Accountant]

You get the lowest quarter by cherry-picking countries--works every time

yeah - I never understand this.
Tesla delivered more cars in Q4 globally than any other quarter in their history (plus 10k in transit).
Yet people always point to weak geographic locations.
If Europe is strong, then China is weak.
If China is strong, then Europe is weak
If France is up huge, Germany is down
If Germany is up, then France is down.

 

[The Accountant]

So much talk, so much hype and he sold................That explains him missing from this forum. Thanks.

I just watched the video. He wasn't shaving yet and he appears to be in his Mom's basement. So I am going to cut him some slack.

 

[MartinAustin]

TSLA dropped to around $236 in pre market

There appears to have been some "support-like" behaviour with TSLA in the mid $230's since mid-November. I wonder if that will be broken this time or if the support will show up again

 

[tslagreen]

I saw a funny bumper sticker the other day on an older minivan that said: "I identify as a Tesla."

 

[lascavarian]

I wonder how many weeks it will be before the 10 yr bond drops below 4% again?

Never mind…

 

[Drumheller]

240 seems to have been the magnet for days.

 

[Krugerrand]

France was incredible this year, but if I understand it correctly was due to incentives ending on 31/12. So demand was pulled ahead, we'll see what happens in 2024. But great for them, of course. I just don't think these numbers are "organic" and sustainable.

What "disappointed" me (please take the word with a grain of salt) is that European sales started with a blast (95k in Q1, due to price reductions) then slowly decrease till Q4, historically the best of the year.
Now, we understand France, and probably demand was pulled ahead also for Germany, because of incentives ending abruptly.
Still, we know that in Q1 Berlin was ramping up production, and then stopped increasing around April. We (or at least I) don't know why.
We have been told it was for cost reduction and optimization, but in my naivety I thought that a steep price reduction in mid-January would have generated enough demand in Europe for Berlin to continue to ramp up through the whole 2023... It was not like that.
In general, it was a great 2023, especially compared to 2022, but we should be the first to recognize that we basically missed *two quarters* in 2022... So not a great comparison.
"Anticlimactic" is then not the wrong word, IMHO.
"Disappointing" I would use only for Germany, which decreased through the whole year, but is a very important market for Tesla, for obvious reasons.

I don't want to complain about a very good 2023, overall, but try to understand what's the play in Europe for Tesla. What to expect for 2024?

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Ultimately it doesn’t matter if you define sales as organic or inorganic. It doesn’t matter if sales have been pulled forward. That has happened for several years in several different countries and resulted in what? It resulted in more EVs being purchased in a designated time frame because of the incentive, which then acted as advertising so even more EVs would be purchased, which they were.

Your post is an exercise in ‘this was too good to be true, and so now the other shoe will drop.’ It’s an exercise in ‘Tesla is having a demand problem.’

Have we not learned yet of the ebb and flow of the second most expensive thing people buy in their lives? Have we not learned of the many factors that can temporarily affect sales? Have we not yet realized that despite all of it, Tesla continues to sell more cars each year?

Someday Tesla will have a year where they sell less cars than the year before. The list of reasons why that’ll happen is currently endless.

Will you get off the fence and call demand problems because I’ve definitely got my feet on the side of the fence that says Tesla will sell more cars in 2024 than they did in 2023. Or are you a Gemini? Maybe a Libra?

 

[Christine69420]

HyperChange 2 - Why I Sold Tesla, Confessions Of 2016

Posted not because he is ready to buy more stocks .... but a good refresher, mind set ...

I don't know this guy. He sold TSLA in 2016 and now he is buying back in?

Why should I watch a vid from this guy again? What was a better stock to hold in this time period?

I agree now is a good time to buy - but better than to buy in 2016?

 

[Krugerrand]

I've been going around asking several different groups. And for the current 20s generation. Unfortunately many got turned off tesla by what musk spewed out on Twitter.

I actually pushed the envelop, went further and asked them to put a number on this Elon Musk reputation discount. So for Equal EV spec cars,tesla will have to be 7000 cheaper for them to consider a Tesla.

Seems your group of 20s don’t have an Elon problem, they have a money and affordability problem.

The group of 20’s I know are more honest. They say as soon as they can afford to buy a Tesla, that’s what they’ll do.

 

[UkNorthampton]

UK: 22% of NEW cars (10% of vans) have to be Zero-Emission Vehicles (ZEV) - https://fleetworld.co.uk/zev-mandate-with-electric-vehicle-sales-targets-becomes-law/

This will ramp up to 80% in 2030.

Fine is £15,000 per vehicle (source: another older article - ZEV Mandate: the manufacturers that face the biggest fines).

UK needs more Right-Hand Drive Teslas. Stinkbugs are fine, we don't have functioning bio security since events of recent years.

In another thread someone mentioned credits. This isn't mentioned in mainstream reporting.

I looked it up and looks like tesla can sell credits.

"Every car sold above the 22% will attract a £15,000 fine, unless a car maker defers the sales to a future year. Complying can mean buying credits from other car makers with credits in hand – Tesla, Polestar and MG."

So more free money for tesla.

 

[ggies07]

I don't know this guy. He sold TSLA in 2016 and now he is buying back in?

Why should I watch a vid from this guy again? What was a better stock to hold in this time period?

I agree now is a good time to buy - but better than to buy in 2016?

I like the guy. He has energy, but his head and heart are in the right space. He just invested in this private startup, which I follow the founder/CEO Alex Grant.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Re the new EPA numbers. In Canada the range remains the same at 497 kilometres. Our long range AWD model Y’s come from China here. The new range for the American model Y’s (498 kilometres) now roughly match up with the Chinese model Y’s. (1 kilometre difference).

 

[SmokyPeat]

I saw a funny bumper sticker the other day on an older minivan that said: "I identify as a Tesla."

A popular YouTuber in Florida has actually put an old Honda Odyssey minivan body on a salvage Model S Plaid skateboard. He recently bought a salvage Model X Plaid to give the same treatment.

 

[TesLeif]

yeah - I never understand this.
Tesla delivered more cars in Q4 globally than any other quarter in their history (plus 10k in transit).
Yet people always point to weak geographic locations.
If Europe is strong, then China is weak.
If China is strong, then Europe is weak
If France is up huge, Germany is down
If Germany is up, then France is down.

The more markets that Tesla enters, the more geographic/economic diversification we get; just pump more cars into another country if one temporarily slows down. We're already seeing this make a HUGE difference in Europe, and there are so many countries we have yet to formally enter!! While most remaining countries are, on average, poor, there are many wealthy people in these countries, and these tend to be growing populations... they also follow the trends of the West for the most part... just in time for us to enter with the current line-up, as well as the next-gen vehicles!

 

[TesLeif]

I don't know this guy. He sold TSLA in 2016 and now he is buying back in?

Why should I watch a vid from this guy again? What was a better stock to hold in this time period?

I agree now is a good time to buy - but better than to buy in 2016?

He's been a vocal supporter for many years, and represents a younger generation, which is good. He started buying $TSLA early... 2013? And it is his largest position by far; he has not sold much over the years and, when he has, it has been to invest in start-ups. He's been quiet on Tesla in the last pair of years or so, perhaps saddened by Elon's conservative/unpredictable antics? But he seems to be back to buying and hyping the stock/company, which is good. He has a lot of YouTube viewers on "Hyper Change" and he's also been busy with his small VC initiative "Hyper Guap", where they invest in start-ups. His heart is in the right place. I think he incorrectly hyped Arcimoto; it's a tough industry.