Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Oveeus]

Not sure if related, but if Project Redwood has anything to do with Redwood Material, the only association that I can make is for an EV priced at or below 25k is the fact that the battery pack and the car itself would be highly recyclable.

Beyond what we already know regarding production efficiencies, we need to look into the cost structure of an EV. The battery pack is the most expensive component in the whole car. But what if, Tesla, in collaboration with RM, derived a design that makes the car and the battery pack super efficient at being recycled and replaced?

It would not only make sense from a cost-planning perspective. But also when robotaxi becomes a thing, if they break, for whatever reason, they are just recycled into raw material and be made into new car again or easily repaired (take out broken part, bolt working parts on)

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750064105224843527

Chat here:
Tesla Unionization

 

[Tony73]

I expect 7 to 10 millions pre-orders for new NGV globally within the first month of unveil. $700 million to $1 billion in interest free money to Tesla - enough to set up trial line at Texas.

Have a feeling the line will be set up long before Tesla opens reservations. We are probably looking at early 2025 before Tesla officially acknowledges the program exists

 

[CorneliusXX]

4680 LFP from BYD. Might allow additional volumes while Tesla is ramping it's own lines.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750081572395499774

 

[Tony73]

4680 LFP from BYD. Might allow additional volumes while Tesla is ramping it's own lines.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750081572395499774

Wonder if it is tabless.

 

[Max Plaid]

Is Elon Musk’s judgement so bad that he will dump so many shares at once just for kicks. The last time, he had to expedite his share sale to buy Twitter, but he could plan 6 to 12 months ahead and slowly release the shares and spare everyone the drama.
Elon exercising his options does NOT have to tank the stock price.

Yeah, and the previous time before that was just as TSLA hit ATH in November 2021 and was going higher, he made a "should I sell TSLA to pay taxes" poll in Twitter, and this was the start of the mess we find ourselves in right now

He then proceeded to dump stock for weeks without any regard to the share price

Was TSLA over-valued at that moment? Probably. Was Musk totally irresponsible? Absolutely!

 

[Mengy]

Happy earnings day everyone. Or at least, we can hope it will be happy. Eh, just try to have a good day everyone!

 

[mongo]

I expect 7 to 10 millions pre-orders for new NGV globally within the first month of unveil. $700 million to $1 billion in interest free money to Tesla - enough to set up trial line at Texas.

Have a feeling the line will be set up long before Tesla opens reservations. We are probably looking at early 2025 before Tesla officially acknowledges the program exists

Tesla has referenced the lower price vehicle publicly.

Austin has been installing equipment for another line for months. Including a paint line which is getting it tanks built as we type. Combined with shifting initial production to Austin from Mexico, it seems they are already well underway.

 

[mongo]

4680 LFP from BYD. Might allow additional volumes while Tesla is ramping it's own lines.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750081572395499774

Those don't qualify for the $7,500 Clean Vehicle Credit so they would be for China, Europe, or non-vehicle primary power applications (Cybertruck medium voltage battery and Optimus might like them). Would be interesting to see how they stack up versus prismatic packs.

Non-LFP side note : Semi falls under the Commercial Credit, so it's cell source agnostic.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Those don't qualify for the $7,500 Clean Vehicle Credit so they would be for China, Europe, or non-vehicle primary power applications (Cybertruck medium voltage battery and Optimus might like them). Would be interesting to see how they stack up versus prismatic packs.

Non-LFP side note : Semi falls under the Commercial Credit, so it's cell source agnostic.

If the info from Kelvin from a couple of days ago is correct that LFP is being sold at the $47kWh range the credit won't matter much. It would likely be close to $40 cheaper than nickel cells anyway.

 

[mongo]

If the info from Kelvin from a couple of days ago is correct that LFP is being sold at the $47kWh range the credit won't matter much. It would likely be close to $40 cheaper than nickel cells anyway.

Even at $40 less per kWh, you'd need a 188kWh pack to equal $7,500 and that may be ignoring the manufacturing credit of $35/kWh at the cell level (assuming Tesla assembles the modules for $10/ kWh credit).
In reference to "Might allow additional volumes while Tesla is ramping it's own lines." LFP energy density is lower, so Tesla can't do a 1:1 swap for higher energy packs. They could make more RWD, but can't make Long Range or Performance.

 

[jamaatta]

Even at $40 less per kWh, you'd need a 188kWh pack to equal $7,500 and that may be ignoring the manufacturing credit of $35/kWh at the cell level (assuming Tesla assembles the modules for $10/ kWh credit).
In reference to "Might allow additional volumes while Tesla is ramping it's own lines." LFP energy density is lower, so Tesla can't do a 1:1 swap for higher energy packs. They could make more RWD, but can't make Long Range or Performance.

Send 'em to Giga Berlin, Germany, Europe. Thank you!

 

[CorneliusXX]

Even at $40 less per kWh, you'd need a 188kWh pack to equal $7,500 and that may be ignoring the manufacturing credit of $35/kWh at the cell level (assuming Tesla assembles the modules for $10/ kWh credit).
In reference to "Might allow additional volumes while Tesla is ramping it's own lines." LFP energy density is lower, so Tesla can't do a 1:1 swap for higher energy packs. They could make more RWD, but can't make Long Range or Performance.

Sorry, was doing the math for the manufacturing credit instead of the 7,500 credit when responding.

Standard range volume should be fine though right? It would be the same economics as the standard 3 with LFP coming out of Fremont in terms of tax credits? They seem to sell OK.

 

[Mike Ambler]

Tesla Payroll Tax is (share price - execution price)*shares*1.45%
(Social Security is capped noise)
1 Billion per $227 of stock price over 23.33

Team, thinking out loud...could that be why they are (or will continue to) holding back on recognizing the deferred FSD money?

 

[elasalle]

Not sure if related, but if Project Redwood has anything to do with Redwood Material, the only association that I can make is for an EV priced at or below 25k is the fact that the battery pack and the car itself would be highly recyclable.

Beyond what we already know regarding production efficiencies, we need to look into the cost structure of an EV. The battery pack is the most expensive component in the whole car. But what if, Tesla, in collaboration with RM, derived a design that makes the car and the battery pack super efficient at being recycled and replaced?

It would not only make sense from a cost-planning perspective. But also when robotaxi becomes a thing, if they break, for whatever reason, they are just recycled into raw material and be made into new car again or easily repaired (take out broken part, bolt working parts on)

Or Tesla buys Redwood, and makes JB still in charge of Redwood (Model Q/2)

 

[Knightshade]

Team, thinking out loud...could that be why they are (or will continue to) holding back on recognizing the deferred FSD money?

At least some of that $ has to be held back until they deliver L4 or better (because that's what was promised to those who bought prior to ~April 2019)- and a small bit more would be non-NA buyers to whom they've also not delivered even all the promised L2 features yet.

I can't think of any good reason not to fully recognize any NEWER NA-specifically FSD $ though, other than if they're waiting until the city streets code (what most call FSDb today) becomes the 'default' version instead of needing to specifically tell the car to opt into it.

 

[scaesare]

Little more info about a new vehicle

View attachment 1011696


https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1750024350269346228?s=61&t=0WId37Gvx3LFkf1t4pe9nA

Another article I came across this morning ... based on the same Reuters source, so no real info, but I found the reference to the existing 3/Y lineup being stale interesting in light of the Y leading sales on multiple fronts...

 

[elasalle]

4680 LFP from BYD. Might allow additional volumes while Tesla is ramping it's own lines.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750081572395499774

BYD moves fast and Panasonic is dead slow ... liklely represents overall China vs Japan

 

[wtlloyd]

Feels like Xmas morning, waiting to open presents. Will I get a new bike, or a sweater and socks?

 

[Unpilot]

Feels like Xmas morning, waiting to open presents. Will I get a new bike, or a sweater and socks?

Coal....but look at NFLX...up over $65 or 13% after less that expected earnings.