That's not FSD, it's deferred tax credits they had carried on the books for years.
Deferred revenue increased $192 million to $3.251 B.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Deferred revenue increased $192 million to $3.251 B.
They are also paying the higher percentage on their mortgage. They have no choice but to pay the mortgage. They don't have to buy a new car.
Precisely. While the short term outlook might be conservative for most people, the financial trend still looks outstanding when you zoom out. Tesla is doing great, and the future is incredibly bright, but we might get a really nice buying opportunity for the next year or so.
Thanks, it doesn't seem as ugly then.Production growth in 2023 was 37%, 1.81 million over 1.32 million.
Given the capacities Tesla states in the report today, their max capacity for 2024 is 2.23 million minus the CT. If you assume about 50K CT's for 2024 that would give a production capacity of 2.28 million for 2024.
Now include a few shutdowns for line upgrades and unforeseen little stuff, and it's not hard to see where people like me keep predicting 2.1 million production for 2024. That would be 16% production increase for 2024 over 2023, and this is why I feel TSLA will trade more or less flat for this year. Wall Street will cry and yell about how the growth story is over, and while we all know this is not true because Gen3 growth is right around the corner, for 2024 we will probably be at the mercy of the bears somewhat.
That's my hunch at least, but I'd be ecstatic to be too conservative by the end of the year.
So 37% up from 1.8M is 2.47M (would be typical growth) so something less they say. Hmm... Let the factories rip!
Cost per vehicle is lower and auto margins are up. The next few years will be about accumulating shares for me so not to bothered if the stock is sideways for a bit before the new platform is ramped. Im pretty happy with the results as expected in between major ramps.
If the interest rate environment was different, margins would be higher, Tesla would have more confidence about investing in expansion and additional production capacity may be added faster...
There are reasons why additional capacity expansion didn't make sense in 2023.
- Production capacity for all existing models is about right - focus on ramping model Y at Austin and Berlin.
- They don't have sufficient cells to make higher volumes of cars.
- The next wave of expansion is the Gen3 cars.
- 50% is 50% on average over a long time timeframe - Gen3 cars will be a step change
Lots of things are lumpy and variable, rather than constant and predictable.
Aside from ramping CT and 4680, they need to progress Gen3 at Austin, Semi at Sparks, and probably a Model Y refresh, sometimes hardwork doesn't instantly translate into capacity expansion.
The Q4 numbers are more or less what most people expected, again these can be lumpy and variable, one quarter isn't a long term trend.
IRA for 30D Clean Vehicle Credits probably won't show up anywhere.
45W for leases would, but probably under a tax credit, not a grant.
I'm saying always be cautious with Chinese made products without foreign branding oversight and quality control. The Japanese naturally are overly obsessed with perfection. Only place you can find 900 dollar square watermelons and thousand dollar cantaloupes. When was the last time you have seen people trained for a decade how to perfect making sushi rice? Only in Japan.
Krugerrand
Meow
You have point. However, clearly these two delusional, egomaniacs are on different playing fields. Remind me what Ross has done in his life?
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Marketwatch.com reporting the lower growth rate in 2023 as lower volume in 2024 compared to 2023. People dont know how to read.
Yep, the 50% target is dead. History might say the record low interest rates for an excess period of time was crazy.
cliff harris
Member
Amusingly Tesla now has enough cash that it could buy Rivian and Lucid and do a $5bn stock buyback AND still have$4billion in spare cash.
Maybe next year they will be able to buy GM? (not that I think they should buy any of these!)
Maybe next year they will be able to buy GM? (not that I think they should buy any of these!)
No it has nothing to do with FSD deferred revenue. Tesla still have 3.2b dollars worth of deferred revenue as of today.
Imho Margins are everything. Good to see those trending in the right direction.
The first half of this year is a great buying opportunity, and stock price is going to continue to slide for the next 2 quarters unless some FSD breakthrough is achieved in the next 6 months - and no, the current iteration of v12 isn't it.
Do you know if the 1x tax deffered revenue affects FCF? As in was this a real FCF+ or accounting?
It’s been obvious to me that demand has reached its limit for a while. Tesla has the capacity to produce more vehicles but doesn’t because we will end up with to much inventory.
If interest rates go down, Tesla does targeted advertising, Elon stops antagonising people etc demand will increase.
However it will have a limit because simply worldwide theirs a limit as to how many people can afford $40,000+ vehicles.
The next major jump is going to occur with the $25-$30,000 (I hope) vehicle.
As is normal for Tesla I expect delays especially as they are talking about a revolutionary process.
I hope by 2026 the numbers produced give us a big jump and within a year or two after that the number of the cheaper vehicles sold alone is more than the total production this year.
If interest rates go down, Tesla does targeted advertising, Elon stops antagonising people etc demand will increase.
However it will have a limit because simply worldwide theirs a limit as to how many people can afford $40,000+ vehicles.
The next major jump is going to occur with the $25-$30,000 (I hope) vehicle.
As is normal for Tesla I expect delays especially as they are talking about a revolutionary process.
I hope by 2026 the numbers produced give us a big jump and within a year or two after that the number of the cheaper vehicles sold alone is more than the total production this year.
Krugerrand
Meow
Now you’re saying it. You didn’t say that in your first post. My minding read skills are fairly limited, so please pretend I don’t have any at all next time.
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