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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Yeah I like this guy's perspective, too. Definitely worth a read, especially the first paragraph: "Guidance creates pressure that leads to inefficient action. EOQ rushes, trying to hit short-term numbers on a specific day, is a game that disadvantages a company's efficient long-term execution on a mission and likely hurts long-term growth/value. Guidance is necessary to pump stock value short term and is also expected. I get it. However, this granular guidance is not as essential for long-term holders. Tesla has $29 billion cash on hand. I read the absence of guidance as a result of a strong cash position, strong fundamentals, and focus on the long-term plot with increasing disregard for expected standards. Capital expenditures increasing with confidence also shows no headwinds, and confidence remains strong in long-term value creation. Anyone who knows Tesla knows the play is in big long-term transformative bets, not short-term forgettable wins."
I feel very strongly that there is a clear pathway back up to $300+ this year and a big part of it stems from this chart:
So global current Installed annual vehicle capacity RIGHT NOW is >2,350,000. This is CURRENT. Now I know that doesn’t mean Tesla is going to produce/sell this many units, but I feel it is very possible Tesla meets or exceeds 2.1M units produced/delivered, with yes, maybe 2.3M (who knows, maybe 2.4M). Now, okay, sure, that's not 50% CAGR, but 20%+ would still be very solid. I think what Tesla is trying to say is world economics and the pace of getting complex projects completed around the globe are simply too complex to predict at this time. I'm always surprised how close they've been to their guidance targets in the past, simply considering how hard it is to get all the moving production/delivery pieces to synchronize. I'm not reading Tesla's statements as if the company is not going to grow in 2024, which is what MSM talking heads are screaming from the roof tops right now. Investing $10B capex in future growth in 2024 alone, the lumpiness of Megapack deployment, and the mass production and delivery of complex products makes it tough to predict exactly how things are going to pan out. Frankly, knowing how aggressively Tesla tries to operate, I’d be surprised if 2024 isn’t another record year, and by a good margin over 2023. And just how 2023 had the big surprise of NACS adoption by practically every automaker, 2024 will also have it’s surprises to the upside, things we didn’t model, things we didn’t know about, etc. I’m not making a prediction, I’m just taking a wait-and-see approach to 2024. Nevertheless, if history is any guide, I believe it is going to be another very strong year, and as I’ve read what others have been saying here and mulling over the conference call and how Tesla is keeping their cards closer to their chest, I’m feeling bullish. 2.1-2.3M units produced/delivered and another 100% yoy storage deployment is not like some wild impossiblity. It is very possible. I absolutely believe $300+/share is very possible this year, especially if FSD can simply get smooth, not spastic back-and-forth jerks of the steering wheel, abrupt braking, etc.
tl;dr: let’s wait and see how this year pans out before announcing it dead-on-arrival.
Physically, it is possible, if Tesla were to come up with some new manufacturing technique/process that greatly increases the volumetric density and efficiency of a factory, move to smaller vehicles, and increase speed and automation of the GA lines, like how Elon described some crazy futuristic alien manufacturing juggernaut in the past. Anyway, if anyone can do it, I bet it would be Tesla working with that guy who docks his reusable rockets to the international space station. We'll see soon enough.
tmoz
S85D, Y LR, ex Prius PiP
Does anyone know how long it takes Tesla to recoup the cost of building a Supercharger station (on average)? For fully amortized sites, what is the annual revenue per stall? Or some metric? I have no idea if we have any insight into this. At some point, I would hope it would be a nice cash cow. The variability in sites must be high too - some at a slight annual loss and some raking it in big time.
longevity of the business , food is a basic need And Costco offers best prices.
it’s an expensive stock, frankly.
And finally life is a mystery , just accept it.
Costco, Walmart, Target, Amazon retail...all of these companies are just logistic companies at heart. They don't really invent or make anything and the innovation are all logistic related.
So the moral of the story is wall street assign many companies with random PEs regardless of margins/revenue growth or profits.
Amazons retail business makes no money as I understand. All the profit is AWS
jabloomf1230
Minister of Silly Walks
?
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How Amazon Makes Money
Amazon’s biggest source of revenue is ecommerce, but cloud services currently generates all of the company’s operating income.
Unclear if you are trying to prove me correct or if you are interpreting “makes no money” to mean no revenue.?
How Amazon Makes Money
Amazon’s biggest source of revenue is ecommerce, but cloud services currently generates all of the company’s operating income.www.investopedia.com
It is my fault for using unclear terminology. But yes, Amazon makes no profit from e-commerce. It’s profit comes from AWS
Edit: which of course makes it easier to see yet again how a DOJO as a service business would be very valuable in the new era where everything is an AI app
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Sure it is, have you done the math? If we take only last years actuals and exit run rates (N.B. Shanghai Dec '23 wholesale was 93.5K units, or 1.1M annualized) all we need to do is bring up Giga Texas Model Y Production to the existing level of Giga Berlin. Here's the numbers:
Question is, will Tesla want to do it? Of course! They'be already invested 100% of the CapEx required to build this capacity, all they have to do is continue to run it at 2023's 'exit rate' and bring TX up to match Berlin...
and TX is getting 100GWh of 4680 cell capacity by mid-year, already at 25 GWh with just one production line (+2 test lines are extra, installing the 4th line as we speak). Plus, Drew told us YESTERDAY that they are weeks ahead on 4680 production vs needs for CT.
If you want temperature measurement per X number of cells, only the pack size (cell count) matters, not the arrangement.
BMS sections matches the series groups due to balancing requirements. Twice the voltage is twice the groups, even though each group has half the cells.
Estimating exponentials/ s-curves is difficult.
If 15M in 2030, a 33% increase would make 2031 20M. If 12M, two years of 29% increase makes 2032 20M.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Again this is completely untrue.
You can put a robotaxi on the road in many US states today if you want. There are no regulators you need permission from
At most you need to certify your car can obey all traffic laws, and you have insurance. You don't even have to prove that, just say it. Nobody checks.
"regulatory environment" is not holding back Tesla putting RTs on the road. Tesla not currently having anything that can safely operate as an RT is. And only that
Why is it "crawling" into cars? Tesla interiors aren't all that big. We've already seen Optimus handling eggs without breaking them, I think they can manage to wipe a seat. It doesn't need to do a full detail job each time.
See also the bit about Tesla has your credit card and an internal camera. The bot could grab out an empty water bottle you left behind... if you vomit all over the interior they'll just bill you for a human to clean it.
You've already been corrected on that one-- yes they are the underwriter in a number of states.
Tesla literally said otherwise multiple times- including in the product description of FSD for years.
Tesla description of FSD shown to you during purchase for years said:
Granted we're MANY years past "next year" with no details released....
People read this incorrectly.
This is the capacity of the current lines. They aren't running at full capacity at multiple locations (this is easily confirmed), so this number is not possible.
They likely won't even reach 125k run rate this year on the CT. As Elon has said 20x, it's an extremely slow ramp.
I found the last analyst question asking about margins to be insufferable. I was rolling my eyes thinking what a boring question and I’m sure Elon was biting his tongue haha
I hate to say it ... but ... is there demand for 2.5M units of CT, S, X, 3 Y? Unclear. Pierre Ferrague actually asked that question and the team basically said they didn't know. Also, good luck running all factories at 100% utilization!
After many, many years on this forum, please allow me to TRY to take a step back overlooking what we are (and have been) sharing here.
Two things stand out for me (apart from the sometimes very funny posts, that I appreciate).
1) No matter how hard people try to predict the future: we prove time and again that we simply cannot. Many posts are about this, but I mostly skip them. Sometimes people will proudly present how they were right in the past, but they always seem to forget the multiple times they were wrong. And Technical Analysis? Same category.
2) Fundamentals and facts of Tesla, its management and its competitors, are the things that count and that we can hold on to. Please keep the SWOT acronym in mind. However, a stock price that tanks on investor's emotions and analysts bla-bla may be seen as a fact, but is worthless for the long term investors thesis. Is the company healthy and the management doing ànd planning as they should do? That is what counts. For any company.
So, please keep the information/facts like from @The Accountant flowing into this thread please. As investors we should be very grateful for the effort some people like them put into this.
So is TSLA’s future, while being OK on number 2) in my opinion, all rosey?
Well no, while European competition is not a threat, the Chinese are a threat in my opinion. Flooding the market with relatively cheap cars in a lot of price categories is something that is already starting. Unless import tariffs are being used. However, that is only a temporary help for old auto, as they are barely innovating. A threat to Tesla? Time will tell.
And then there is Elon’s compensation plan. Thanks for the insightful post of @Artful Dodger about this subject, but for me personally it poses investor’s uncertainty for now.
Two things stand out for me (apart from the sometimes very funny posts, that I appreciate).
1) No matter how hard people try to predict the future: we prove time and again that we simply cannot. Many posts are about this, but I mostly skip them. Sometimes people will proudly present how they were right in the past, but they always seem to forget the multiple times they were wrong. And Technical Analysis? Same category.
2) Fundamentals and facts of Tesla, its management and its competitors, are the things that count and that we can hold on to. Please keep the SWOT acronym in mind. However, a stock price that tanks on investor's emotions and analysts bla-bla may be seen as a fact, but is worthless for the long term investors thesis. Is the company healthy and the management doing ànd planning as they should do? That is what counts. For any company.
So, please keep the information/facts like from @The Accountant flowing into this thread please. As investors we should be very grateful for the effort some people like them put into this.
So is TSLA’s future, while being OK on number 2) in my opinion, all rosey?
Well no, while European competition is not a threat, the Chinese are a threat in my opinion. Flooding the market with relatively cheap cars in a lot of price categories is something that is already starting. Unless import tariffs are being used. However, that is only a temporary help for old auto, as they are barely innovating. A threat to Tesla? Time will tell.
And then there is Elon’s compensation plan. Thanks for the insightful post of @Artful Dodger about this subject, but for me personally it poses investor’s uncertainty for now.
stef
Member
Depends if they commit to serious education and awareness campaigns. Without that not very likely.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
The best wave is no wave-
The best guidance is no guidance-
The shackles are off. Own your own timeline. Tesla has earned their own future.
I like it!
The best guidance is no guidance-
The shackles are off. Own your own timeline. Tesla has earned their own future.
I like it!
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
So what are the machines that make the redwood compact? They are hard to copy.
- Optimus bots for unboxed?
- Huge single Mg Thixomolded gigacasting? (tech probably not ready but then again neither is the bot)
- 3D printing?
- Kuka alien dreadnought?
- Huge plastic moldings?
- Something else?
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