Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[insaneoctane]

Hey Tesla, I know you dominate everywhere else, but hey, take some notes, or at least give us a clue when/if/where Cybertruck will charge this fast

https://twitter.com/x/status/1753460897949811186

Yes, but....

 

[wtlloyd]

As Ethiopia goes, so goes the USA?

So it rings with this by-background ex-Downeaster. Probably too many young'uns in this forum for the chuckle it deserves though, unfortunately.

Well, that was a WWII political slogan, so - hey, just how old are you?

 

[SmokyPeat]

Well, that was a WWII political slogan, so - hey, just how old are you?

Obviously a reference to- "As Maine goes, so goes the nation."

 

[wtlloyd]

not debating which is cheaper, just curious what the true cost of an email is. I mean you need internet service, a computer, an email service, which has data centers/staff/etc., then an end user that also has internet service and a computer to receive it.

cellphone - Starlink - cellphone

why complicate it,? 'the best part' - awww, you know the rest

 

[WattsHappening]

Awww. They’re lawyers now. Adorable.

I think they mentioned they stayed at Holiday Inn Express last night.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

If you think you're frustrated with Musk's behavior that cause stock crashes, his workers are even more fraustrated.

Not many people watched this entire thing but you should as this Asian guy is one of the few who survived 7 years on the AP team.

One thing to note is that the stock price absolutely affects the worker's mood and productivity according to him. He said many team members took out margin loans during the meteoritic rise of Tesla stock and after Musk decided to sell massive amount of stock, these workers were all margin called. It's probably the most frustrating thing ever when employees unlike us cannot just sell anytime to close their position but must wait till the windowed period.

So in theory, Musk should be more mindful about what he says and do if it's material to the stock price(lol I say material to the stock price and not really material to the company).

People should not disregard this sentiment. I know a few engineers working at Tesla, and they have been definitely pissed at Musk for the share price. Whether deserved or not, things like abruptly selling a lot of stock, or adding unneeded uncertainty (like this compensation / incorporation stuff) affects employee morale. It's...not the best.

Here is META chart. It dropped to $100 in 2023.

I think TSLAs turn will come ...View attachment 1014800

+How many had conviction to hold META at $100? How many bought/added more META at $100? Most likely most sheeps want to buy META today

When META dropped under $100 I bought some. It's PE ratio was something ridiculous like 15-20. And if you know anything about the company, you would know they they hired way too many people for many different moonshots, and could easily cut back on workers to boost profits. And now they did, and honestly not sure the market is fully pricing it in.

META earnings are growing solidly, and they'll probably print $20 in EPS this year. If the share price doesn't change, the TTM PE ratio will be like 23.

Whereas at Tesla, they can't cut excess costs like META. Earnings aren't growing (yet). And the PE ratio is already 60 (ignore the one-off accounting).

One could easily argue that META is a better investment than TSLA over the next year. META could easily go up 50-80% by the end of the year and still have a much lower PE ratio than TSLA.

TSLA is gonna have a hard time getting over $1 EPS in a quarter until maybe the end of the year. Share price could easily stay around $200. $300 seems unlikely as there simply isn't going to be the earnings to support it this year.

And robotaxis aren't coming for a few years, much to the dismay of armchair FSD youtube watchers. The disengagement rate is still like 100x too high to be a robotaxi. I'm not exaggerating the 100x.

Basically Tesla Energy is worth 100 billion right now, Tesla Automotive is worth 300 billion, and the excess is hope. To expect the excess to balloon to another 500 billion in hopium this year is unlikely.

I just find it funny that people (like me) who were lucky enough to be in the right place to invest in a company that obviously had the EV lead 5 years ago, now have the hubris to think they know what's going to happen with AI and robotaxis / robots. Lolz.

But hey weirder things have happened.

 

[jerry33]

And is it wise to incorporate a decarbonisation company in an oil state? What’s the state of play on direct sales in Texas? Did they relent on that?

Nope. Same as always plus new taxes on BEVs. $400 additional at registration and $200 per year.

 

[GOVA]

Hope this passes the mods' opinions as 'new' information.

Today's All-In podcast goes in-depth into why the Delaware v. Musk judgement was so bad. Really good deep dive. It's the second segment, around the 35-36 minute mark.

Yes, a good listen. I like Chamath's take on this. Delaware has gone to *sugar*. Big time.

 

[Singuy]

People should not disregard this sentiment. I know a few engineers working at Tesla, and they have been definitely pissed at Musk for the share price. Whether deserved or not, things like abruptly selling a lot of stock, or adding unneeded uncertainty (like this compensation / incorporation stuff) affects employee morale. It's...not the best.



When META dropped under $100 I bought some. It's PE ratio was something ridiculous like 15-20. And if you know anything about the company, you would know they they hired way too many people for many different moonshots, and could easily cut back on workers to boost profits. And now they did, and honestly not sure the market is fully pricing it in.

META earnings are growing solidly, and they'll probably print $20 in EPS this year. If the share price doesn't change, the TTM PE ratio will be like 23.

Whereas at Tesla, they can't cut excess costs like META. Earnings aren't growing (yet). And the PE ratio is already 60 (ignore the one-off accounting).

One could easily argue that META is a better investment than TSLA over the next year. META could easily go up 50-80% by the end of the year and still have a much lower PE ratio than TSLA.

TSLA is gonna have a hard time getting over $1 EPS in a quarter until maybe the end of the year. Share price could easily stay around $200. $300 seems unlikely as there simply isn't going to be the earnings to support it this year.

And robotaxis aren't coming for a few years, much to the dismay of armchair FSD youtube watchers. The disengagement rate is still like 100x too high to be a robotaxi. I'm not exaggerating the 100x.

Basically Tesla Energy is worth 100 billion right now, Tesla Automotive is worth 300 billion, and the excess is hope. To expect the excess to balloon to another 500 billion in hopium this year is unlikely.

I just find it funny that people (like me) who were lucky enough to be in the right place to invest in a company that obviously had the EV lead 5 years ago, now have the hubris to think they know what's going to happen with AI and robotaxis / robots. Lolz.

But hey weirder things have happened.

IMO FSD V12 determines a lot of Tesla's valuation regardless of earnings this year. Everything prior to V12 people are either in the camp of it'll never work to it'll never leave L2. V12 is the final foundational iteration of FSD. Hopefully it turns people from never to most likely...and with each update goes from 10 years away to 5 years away to 1 year away. It could also hit some kind of AI training maxima that proofs certain things cannot be trained into working. Either way this is it...no more rewrites, there's nowhere to go after end to end.

 

[ggies07]

Nope. Same as always plus new taxes on BEVs. $400 additional at registration and $200 per year.

Yep. And I haven't seen Elon speak up nor post about about this once. Nor does he post about renewable energy projects in Texas....info that actually needs to be spread to Texans and other nut jobs.....Elon has been on a political crusade since buying "you know who". (Side bar - are we in Harry Potter now?)

 

[Zero CO2]

Awww. They’re lawyers now. Adorable.

pretty sure David Sachs does have law degree ... not sure if he ever practiced law ...

 

[jerry33]

Yep. And I haven't seen Elon speak up nor post about about this once. Nor does he post about renewable able energy projects in Texas....info that actually needs to be spread to Texans and other nut jobs.....

I suspect he doesn't want to jeopardize future concessions. After all, the only real inconvenience to the Texas consumer is they have to go to the county tax office to pay sales tax and get their license. This takes about 15 minutes plus a few minutes drive time in most cases. The main annoyance is to Tesla, not the consumer.

 

[mongo]

My 10yr-old Model S just got this update. Our 2-month-old Model Y hasn't got it yet! The Model S feels hip, trendy and up-to-date
View attachment 1014835

Hey, could you (or anyone else with old software) please measure the height of the text (or the whole icon) for BRAKE, ABS, and PARK? I'm curious how off it is.

 

[Knightshade]

IMO FSD V12 determines a lot of Tesla's valuation regardless of earnings this year. Everything prior to V12 people are either in the camp of it'll never work to it'll never leave L2. V12 is the final foundational iteration of FSD. Hopefully it turns people from never to most likely...and with each update goes from 10 years away to 5 years away to 1 year away. It could also hit some kind of AI training maxima that proofs certain things cannot be trained into working. Either way this is it...no more rewrites, there's nowhere to go after end to end.

FWIW apart from SW they could also find a local maximum in hardware (either in the driving computer, or in the limitations of the cameras- or even both)-- those are potentially easy to fix in future cars, less so in the millions of existing ones.

not debating which is cheaper, just curious what the true cost of an email is. I mean you need internet service, a computer, an email service, which has data centers/staff/etc., then an end user that also has internet service and a computer to receive it.

Well, the cost to the sender is 0 for the receiving end (and quite close to 0 for the exceedingly large % of the population already set up to receive it). I already addressed it on the sending end- it's something like 1/100th of a penny when doing it in bulk as far as the email service... and it's not like whomever would compose the email at Tesla doesn't already have a computer and internet access for other reasons, so the marginal cost there is also basically 0.

 

[Fred42]

IMO FSD V12 determines a lot of Tesla's valuation regardless of earnings this year. Everything prior to V12 people are either in the camp of it'll never work to it'll never leave L2. V12 is the final foundational iteration of FSD. Hopefully it turns people from never to most likely...and with each update goes from 10 years away to 5 years away to 1 year away. It could also hit some kind of AI training maxima that proofs certain things cannot be trained into working. Either way this is it...no more rewrites, there's nowhere to go after end to end.

IMO FSD won't affect TSLA until it's level 5. Because of the long history and because few people understand V12, FSD will have to be actually in place and driving while everyone in the car naps or works on their laptop before it will make a difference to TSLA. Or maybe level 4 will be a trigger. But not optimism before they accomplish level 4. Elon just said execs at OEM's don't believe FSD is real.

In my uninformed opinion.

 

[uscbucsfan]

IMO FSD won't affect TSLA until it's level 5. Because of the long history and because few people understand V12, FSD will have to be actually in place and driving while everyone in the car naps or works on their laptop before it will make a difference to TSLA. Or maybe level 4 will be a trigger. But not optimism before they accomplish level 4. Elon just said execs at OEM's don't believe FSD is real.

In my uninformed opinion.

Many in the industry believe level 5 is impossible. "The vehicle can driver anywhere in road traffic and under all conditions without human beings" part Waymo doesn't believe to be achievable. Heavy snow buildup, etc.

V12 looks to be an improvement, but still appears to be far away from surpassing level 2. You never know if additional coding will be required. Elon thought V11 would solve FSD, so it's wait and see.

 

[Singuy]

IMO FSD won't affect TSLA until it's level 5. Because of the long history and because few people understand V12, FSD will have to be actually in place and driving while everyone in the car naps or works on their laptop before it will make a difference to TSLA. Or maybe level 4 will be a trigger. But not optimism before they accomplish level 4. Elon just said execs at OEM's don't believe FSD is real.

In my uninformed opinion.

There's really no such thing as level 4 with a L5 FSD design(to go anywhere). Level 4 can happen any time with FSD as you just need to define when/where and under what conditions it can be driver free. Find a well mapped light traffic area 3am in the morning and have a Tesla runs in circles 10000 times without disengagement and that is your L4. It's almost like the nonsense Mercedes came out with their Level 3.

People likes to front run potential and we already awarded Tesla with a generous valuation due to many believing FSD will be solved even with little evidence it will be. I am hoping V12 actually starts providing an abundance of that evidence for the not so faithful.

 

[Singuy]

Many in the industry believe level 5 is impossible. "The vehicle can driver anywhere in road traffic and under all conditions without human beings" part Waymo doesn't believe to be achievable. Heavy snow buildup, etc.

V12 looks to be an improvement, but still appears to be far away from surpassing level 2. You never know if additional coding will be required. Elon thought V11 would solve FSD, so it's wait and see.

The fact that humans will no longer be writing code for V12 while performing as well if not better than V11 is what gives me hope that it will be solved. The more human involvement when it comes to NN based software the worst outcome.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Looks as though Jeff Bezos may surpass Elon for the #2 richest slot any day now. Zuck isn't too far behind either. Maybe that will be good motivation to get the stock growing again.

 

[uscbucsfan]

The fact that humans will no longer be writing code for V12 while performing as well if not better than V11 is what gives me hope that it will be solved. The more human involvement when it comes to NN based software the worst outcome.

We'll see. On paper, it sounds great, but there are a lot of edge cases and local signs/laws that may not make it work.