Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[uscbucsfan]

There is a distinction to consider here.

Kimbal indicates in the video his enthusiasm about how close FSD is while demonstrating it when it is brought up in conversation.

When asked about deploying Robotaxis he sees problems with that being implemented in the same time frame as solving FSD because of regulatory hurdles.

Kimbal is actually optimistic about FSD, and looks further out for Robotaxi and/or cars with no steering wheel.

Consider the source of the article, watch the video, compare the article's spin to what was actually said.

It doesn't matter about the source. I just read his quote. He doesn't think we'll see it for 5 years. That's a fair timeline. As he states the final 10% can take 90% of the time.

FSD has a long way to go until it's a reliable level 2 system. It's progressing and v12 should take a few more steps forward, but some here believe there's a realistic possibility of level 4 and/or Robotaxi this year. That's not logical.

It's just not close enough to put a date on it. Maybe this time next year with v12 developing there will be more optimism.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Hey, what ever happened to Elons post earnings update session for Tesla he was going to have?

 

[WattsHappening]

It doesn't matter about the source. I just read his quote. He doesn't think we'll see it for 5 years. That's a fair timeline. As he states the final 10% can take 90% of the time.

FSD has a long way to go until it's a reliable level 2 system. It's progressing and v12 should take a few more steps forward, but some here believe there's a realistic possibility of level 4 and/or Robotaxi this year. That's not logical.

It's just not close enough to put a date on it. Maybe this time next year with v12 developing there will be more optimism.

Fair enough.

But for more context, the actual question Kimbal was reponding to was something along the lines of 'how long before the steering wheel is removed,' to which Kimbal answered '5 years?'. He followed that up by saying robotaxi could be delivered sooner. But you wouldn't get that context if you just read the misleading headline and article.

 

[Mengy]

Can someone ask Grok when TSLA will hit ATH again please I didnt pay for X blue.

My wife wants to know when I will retire.

October 23rd, 2025.

 

[Tachyon]

Hey, what ever happened to Elons post earnings update session for Tesla he was going to have?

2 weeks.

 

[2daMoon]

It doesn't matter about the source. I just read his quote. He doesn't think we'll see it for 5 years. That's a fair timeline. As he states the final 10% can take 90% of the time.

FSD has a long way to go until it's a reliable level 2 system. It's progressing and v12 should take a few more steps forward, but some here believe there's a realistic possibility of level 4 and/or Robotaxi this year. That's not logical.

It's just not close enough to put a date on it. Maybe this time next year with v12 developing there will be more optimism.

Define "it"

If you are talking about FSD, which could be rolled into Advanced Auto Pilot as a very useful feature, that will certainly happen before Robotaxis take over the role of cabs and busses.

If you are talking about autonomous vehicles operating without drivers as both private and public transportation options, that will come long after FSD is usable with supervision by Tesla owners to make their journey safer.

These are not the same thing. One is a rapidly advancing software development program that is likely to be placed into the hands of drivers much sooner than the other aspect that includes the software integrated with hardware designed for driverless operation. I agree it is unlikely Level 4 can be accomplished in any short amount of time.

These are each one of the several steps to autonomy. We aren't far from FSD being a really, really advanced Cruise Control that requires the driver to be aware, and which will demonstrably save lives as it works its way down the March of 9s.

 

[TesLeif]

Definitely worth watching!! Amazing info about cost reductions and constantly improvements, Tesla's agile manufacturing is vastly more agile than I could ever have imagined thanks to Tesla's AI.

OOPS- THIS is the video I meant to reccommend, not the FSD one I goofed and posted earlier.

Did anyone see the post(s) from Brad Ferguson (of Rebellionaire) pointing out that Joe Justice only worked at Tesla for 2 months (!!), yet we treat him like the ultimate Tesla expert? He had an image from LinkedIn noting the 2-month tenure, and Joe even replied and confirmed he worked for 2 months, $TSLA went up 10-fold, and he retired in Hawaii.... (!).

 

[Unpilot]

We are gobsmacked the SP was held under $190 today. Aren’t we?

Probably a computer error..... probably

 

[jerry33]

Did anyone see the post(s) from Brad Ferguson (of Rebellionaire) pointing out that Joe Justice only worked at Tesla for 2 months (!!), yet we treat him like the ultimate Tesla expert? He had an image from LinkedIn noting the 2-month tenure, and Joe even replied and confirmed he worked for 2 months, $TSLA went up 10-fold, and he retired in Hawaii.... (!).

Strictly speaking he could have only worked for two days. All we know is he started in one month and left the next month. I haven't seen the actual starting and ending dates.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Define "it"

If you are talking about FSD, which could be rolled into Advanced Auto Pilot as a very useful feature, that will certainly happen before Robotaxis take over the role of cabs and busses.

If you are talking about autonomous vehicles operating without drivers as both private and public transportation options, that will come long after FSD is usable with supervision by Tesla owners to make their journey safer.

These are not the same thing. One is a rapidly advancing software development program that is likely to be placed into the hands of drivers much sooner than the other aspect that includes the software integrated with hardware designed for driverless operation. I agree it is unlikely Level 4 can be accomplished in any short amount of time.

These are each one of the several steps to autonomy. We aren't far from FSD being a really, really advanced Cruise Control that requires the driver to be aware, and which will demonstrably save lives as it works its way down the March of 9s.

It, in this context is solved FSD or level 4, driverless ability.

I think in the next year we could have a reliable level 2 ADAS that can achieve 100s of miles per intervention, but that's levels below what some are expecting and that won't move the stock much.

Robotaxi in the current fleet vehicles may never happen, but as you said, that's beyond "solved FSD". A dedicated, purpose built robotaxi will happen before current vehicles and uber while others are at work or home.

 

[ggr]

Mod: A reminder that we have very little tolerance for attacks on other members. --grrrr.

 

[cliff harris]

Was this covered?

British EV maker, once valued at $13 billion, has gone into bankruptcy protection without making any sales—after getting kicked out of Nasdaq

British EV truck company Arrival was facing soaring costs and had attempted restructuring plans before. It got delisted from the Nasdaq last month.

fortune.com

UK EV startup has collapsed without shipping anything. Sad to see, but a reminder that starting a new EV company is extremely hard. Dyson was another failed EV startup from the UK, laughably under-capitalized.

Linking purely as information on the struggles of Tesla's potential competitiors.

 

[GhostSkater]

"Can you send me a screenshot of your car nav?"
"What, want me to take a picture of it?"
"No, screenshot"
"You crazy?"
"You can't in your car? I can in mine"

As always, highly recommended channel

 

[MC3OZ]

Did anyone see the post(s) from Brad Ferguson (of Rebellionaire) pointing out that Joe Justice only worked at Tesla for 2 months (!!), yet we treat him like the ultimate Tesla expert? He had an image from LinkedIn noting the 2-month tenure, and Joe even replied and confirmed he worked for 2 months, $TSLA went up 10-fold, and he retired in Hawaii.... (!).

The real question is if the information Joe provided is accurate, and at least partially reflects what is currently happening inside Tesla.

It does at least partially tally with information Tesla provided on Investor Day, and information Tesla has provided at other times.

Joe having some ongoing contacts within Tesla would not be a total surprise.

Some of what Joe says is a step beyond what Tesla has publicly said, and he attributes the success to the Agile process, where IMO the quality of the employees is more important.

The real point is those outside the Tesla bubble have no clue about the information Joe provided, and a portion of that is publicly confirmed by Tesla.

What Joe says does draw some strands of information together in an interesting way, which seems to add clarity and provide some additional context to the Investor Day information.

Joe has to at least get credit for providing a coherent explanation of some of the information provided at Investor Day,

 

[elasalle]

Did anyone see the post(s) from Brad Ferguson (of Rebellionaire) pointing out that Joe Justice only worked at Tesla for 2 months (!!), yet we treat him like the ultimate Tesla expert? He had an image from LinkedIn noting the 2-month tenure, and Joe even replied and confirmed he worked for 2 months, $TSLA went up 10-fold, and he retired in Hawaii.... (!).

How many shares do you get in 2 months

 

[t153]

Drove a highland today and I think we should be in for a treat, provided there are no hiccups scaling up production. For context I have a ‘22 perf y and a December built ‘23 rwd 3; like many other reviews state, the ride is more compliant on the highland even over my 3. Definitely quieter inside and I doubt it’s just because of the rear laminated glass. Ventilated seats are comfortable but like many other cars with these, it takes some time to really feel any airflow. The sound the doors make when you close them sounds even better than my 3 also. Looks really nice in the flesh. I think it’ll be a hit!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Drove a highland today and I think we should be in for a treat, provided there are no hiccups scaling up production. For context I have a ‘22 perf y and a December built ‘23 rwd 3; like many other reviews state, the ride is more compliant on the highland even over my 3. Definitely quieter inside and I doubt it’s just because of the rear laminated glass. Ventilated seats are comfortable but like many other cars with these, it takes some time to really feel any airflow. The sound the doors make when you close them sounds even better than my 3 also. Looks really nice in the flesh. I think it’ll be a hit!

View attachment 1016728View attachment 1016729View attachment 1016731

Admit it, You will miss hearing the rattles of your perf Y when you can't hear them anymore in the refresh highland

 

[heltok]

The real question is if the information Joe provided is accurate, and at least partially reflects what is currently happening inside Tesla.

It does at least partially tally with information Tesla provided on Investor Day, and information Tesla has provided at other times.

Joe having some ongoing contacts within Tesla would not be a total surprise.

Some of what Joe says is a step beyond what Tesla has publicly said, and he attributes the success to the Agile process, where IMO the quality of the employees is more important.

The real point is those outside the Tesla bubble have no clue about the information Joe provided, and a portion of that is publicly confirmed by Tesla.

What Joe says does draw some strands of information together in an interesting way, which seems to add clarity and provide some additional context to the Investor Day information.

Joe has to at least get credit for providing a coherent explanation of some of the information provided at Investor Day,

There’s a video where Joe Interviews a current worker and the worker confirms a lot but also tells Joe that some things have changed. The worker seems really nice, hope he didn’t get into too much trouble for talking about things he shouldn’t…

 

[elasalle]

Hey, what ever happened to Elons post earnings update session for Tesla he was going to have?

No package…
…. No can do….

When do we move to TX, and get to vote?

 

[t153]

Admit it, You will miss hearing the rattles of your perf Y when you can't hear them anymore in the refresh highland

You know, our Y is pretty solid in that department. Definitely feels more "jumpy" over bumps vs the 3, but no rattles. Just had them address the axle clicking noise and a pop from the rear subframe, but that's it. Now the '21 100D X I just had as a loaner is a whole nother story. I hope this thing was just beat into the ground in its short 65k mile life because it was a loaner, but it had so many squeaks, rattles, noises, floaty suspension, shaky steering, terrible brakes, etc. that it's not even funny. I think my old '15 85D S with slightly lower mileage was way more solid, unless I just got so used to the better built 3 and Y over the past two years.