Just a datapoint: I took delivery of my Model Y LR in January 2022 (ordered 9/21) for $52,900. There were a lot of crazy price changes around that time.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Yeah, you gotta love that headline, more complaining about not enough nags. And then, of course, they save it until the very end of the article to admit the testing was done before the update 3 months ago that added more nags. SMH.
Tesla, Ford Receive ‘Poor’ Grades in Study of Driver-Assist Technology
The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety’s ratings of the systems—which automate steering and speed—prod automakers to improve safeguards.finance.yahoo.com
Yay, we're not alone anymore!
These my thoughts, based on observations of drone videos at Austin.
Model Y production and Austin and Berlin ramped during 2023 the run rate Q1 2024 is higher than the run rate Q1 2023.
Model Y production at Austin still seems to be ramping. Cybertruck production is ramping. A second Cybertruck line will be added in the middle of the year.
Currently vehicle production and Austin seems to be 2x12 hour shifts Monday - Friday. By Friday the calibration and testing lot is full, and they spend the weekend emptying it out, Each week seems to follow the same cycle.
Parking at Austin is an issue, and they are building a massive multi-storey car park, a lot more staff will be hired soon, sorting out parking is a priority.
Gen3 at Austin will probably be shipping Q2/Q3 2025. If they start construction soon, Mexico can be shipping around Q2/Q3 2026. Rather than delaying the construction process they will simply rework anything that needs to change a Mexico. Rework at Austin is common, at anytime in the last 6 months there ways probably at least some rework going, they are very good at removing previously laid concrete, inside and outside the factory.
When any other Gen3 factories could be shipping cars depends on when they start, IMO there could easily be another 2 factories lagging 6 months behind Mexico.. It all depends on when Tesla fires the starting gun.
I am assuming the 20 Million car by 2030 is a real target, not that they will necessarily get there, bit I think they will try to hit the target.
IMO a full ramp of all existing factories more or less provides the cash flow to build the Gen3 factories, they also need to line up permits, workforce, parts and raw materials..
If I had to guess the growth rates - 2024 + 400,000, (Model Y and Cybertruck), 2025 + 500,000 (Gen3 and Cybertruck) 2026 600,000 Gen3 - multiple factories. This was just a quick guess, but I am assuming Austin is working a 7 day week on all lines, and that there are no parts or battery constraints.
"Our current schedule shows that we will start production towards the end of 2025, sometime in the second half,"
That was Elon's "sleeping on the factory floor, most optimistic timeline."
The reality of his timelines suggest it's more likely in 2026.
I also don't see how you get an extra 400k cars out of Austin this year over last year. You think they will make an additional 320-350k model Ys from Austin this year?
The acting CEO is handling it. He's doing a great job. He should be given more responsibilities.
GhostSkater
Member
Hey guys, just giving y’all a heads up that I just entered with a process against Tesla in the Delaware Court that Tesla should halt all the work being put onto self driving and FSD, since it should be illegal to not drive it (do I need the /s)
For real, 11 hours on the road today, some narrow roads that had me screaming please don’t yeet my mirrors for the opposite traffic, mountain passes that I was forced onto due to a closed road that turned out to be the best road so far and much more
King efficiency, even at “cold” temperatures, and also surprising by how much battery preconditioning affects efficiency, but what else should I expect? Not easy to heat a 500 kg brick
Even though I joked about autopilot, it was a god send on the way back where I’m staying in straight boring roads at night, only dumb part is the EU restrictions for angle and speed it can turn which make it more dangerous than less
Only pet peeve is that on non divided highways max Autopilot speed is the speed limit, and as I found out nobody drives the speed limit here on Italy, not even close, and also that they don’t make sense, straight road with nothing? 50 km/h, tortuous mountain road? 90, good luck
But for real, if Tesla manages to put the essence and behavior, all the software little things and all else into a cheaper model? It will dominate. I was already converted before and now I’m again
Cheers to the longs (don’t tell anyone, but I had to sell a bit o TSLA to rent the Tesla)
For real, 11 hours on the road today, some narrow roads that had me screaming please don’t yeet my mirrors for the opposite traffic, mountain passes that I was forced onto due to a closed road that turned out to be the best road so far and much more
King efficiency, even at “cold” temperatures, and also surprising by how much battery preconditioning affects efficiency, but what else should I expect? Not easy to heat a 500 kg brick
Even though I joked about autopilot, it was a god send on the way back where I’m staying in straight boring roads at night, only dumb part is the EU restrictions for angle and speed it can turn which make it more dangerous than less
Only pet peeve is that on non divided highways max Autopilot speed is the speed limit, and as I found out nobody drives the speed limit here on Italy, not even close, and also that they don’t make sense, straight road with nothing? 50 km/h, tortuous mountain road? 90, good luck
But for real, if Tesla manages to put the essence and behavior, all the software little things and all else into a cheaper model? It will dominate. I was already converted before and now I’m again
Cheers to the longs (don’t tell anyone, but I had to sell a bit o TSLA to rent the Tesla)
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Run rate any given week isn't necessarily total production.
If they're ramped significantly beyond last year same time, and deliveries are expected to be quite close to last year same time, where are the extra cars going?
Elon, already known for being.... overly optimistic... said "we will start production toward the end of 2025"
So your Q2 guess is.... not fact based?
Again citing Elon, he said they hope to identify their first post-Mexico factory "end of this year or early next" which means it's going to be lagging considerably more than 6 months behind Mexico unless they delay starting Mexico quite a bit longer from here.
We already know CT won't be financially material this year.... but let's optimistically say 50,000 units.
You think there's 350,000 more buyers for Y at current prices.... and there's batteries to make 350,000 more Ys for that mater? Keep in mind US ones need either 4680s or US-made 2170s to retain the IRA credits too. If Tesla had 6-figures of spare US made battery packs they wouldn't have had to switch the Model 3 over to foreign cells, losing the tax credit there.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
I went to the Market today to buy some strawberries. Much to my surprise, they were 50% off. Others in the produce section were skeptical to put strawberries in their basket because they thought the low price must mean something was wrong with them. Were the strawberries passed their expiry date? Upon closer inspection, No, they looked like the best strawberries I've ever seen. The Market manager obviously made a pricing mistake. Picked up five 500g containers of strawberries and headed to the check-out counter. Today was my lucky day.
On the way to the check-out counter, I passed a commotion taking place in one of the isles. A new potato chip with Artificial Ingredients where selling out fast, and the Market manager kept rising the price to quell demand, yet the more the prices were raised, the more AI chips were bought. People thought they just had to have them at any price, after all, if the prices were going up it must mean that the AI chips were a better value, no?
I return home and am enjoying a bowl of strawberries. Listening to the evening news, there is a report that the AI chips went up in price another 7% today, however few very are now reading the nutrition labels anymore.
On the way to the check-out counter, I passed a commotion taking place in one of the isles. A new potato chip with Artificial Ingredients where selling out fast, and the Market manager kept rising the price to quell demand, yet the more the prices were raised, the more AI chips were bought. People thought they just had to have them at any price, after all, if the prices were going up it must mean that the AI chips were a better value, no?
I return home and am enjoying a bowl of strawberries. Listening to the evening news, there is a report that the AI chips went up in price another 7% today, however few very are now reading the nutrition labels anymore.
I am assuming Austin moves from 5 days per week to 7 days per week, Also including growth in Austin and Berlin production since Q1 2023. (My estimates were global not just Austin.)
Mainly I think the "low ball" estimates are not factoring in the progressive Model Y ramp over 2023, My impression was the production run rate at the end of 2023 was a lot higher than it was at the start, at both factories,,
For Gen3 production start, I concede I overlooked that production start estimate. I don't think that will overly impact the timing of Mexico and the next lot of factories.
As an additional clue, Cybertrucks are now Supercharging over at the new west side Superchargers. I did think Supercharging might have been a bottleneck, but occasionally I have also seen empty stalls.
Everything about that west side facility suggests Austin production has out grown the temporary east side logistics. This time in 2023 east side logistics seemed to be easily keeping up.
To go close to their 2030 target numbers have to really increase from 2027 onwards, something like a minimum of 2 million additional vehicles per year.
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Imo one of the biggest news in a long while. We now have AI software engineers. Here in an example relevant to Tesla:
The conclusions of what this means is pretty mind blowing. But expect that the average Tesla software engineer might become 10x more efficient. Then extrapolate from there.
The conclusions of what this means is pretty mind blowing. But expect that the average Tesla software engineer might become 10x more efficient. Then extrapolate from there.
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I will take the bait ... why is this concerning ... there is no new information here
Similar for me. December 2021 was when I got my Y...but I had placed my order long before that. So, I got 2019 (ish?) pricing, but took delivery when Tesla's website price was probably close to its peak.
Folks forget that even when Tesla's prices were high, not everybody was paying that price.
Folks also seem to find fault with Tesla's subsequent price drop, when the entire market changed -- it wasn't just interest rates. In 2021 and 2022, the other manufacturers were suffering through a supply crunch, with high prices (dealer market adjustments) and long waits for a limited supply of many models. Of course, with other manufacturers unable to meet demand, Tesla was able to raise prices while increasing production too. Of course we'd all love if Tesla could still charge those high prices...but it's not realistic unless conditions in the entire market allow it.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
I think Franz should be the face of the company. He would be a better salesman than Elon. I love listening to him talk about design choices. He probably doesn't want that much limelight though.
Maybe it helps guide a hedging strategy so he can preserve his position even if the stock moves sideways or drops? Lots of reasons to want to model things. Right now there are lots of smart peoples models that are fairly accurate. People that have no $ (and never did) on robotaxi, nothing on insurance and predicted the impact of lower margins.
For years now it's really been about batteries. Semi and CT are still kneecapped by batteries. All of the storage side...need order of magnitude increase.
Actually, if you listen carefully to the call Elon hints that it will likely be sooner than scheduled. So, no, not the most optimistic timeline.
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