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The increased energy per cell is due to increased volume of the cylinder.
As of Q2, the Cybercell 4680s are on par with 2170 on a same-chemistry basis.


That said, 4680s would make an 3Lud eligible for Clean Vehicle Credit if they keep the MSRP below $55k, plus cut costs $45/kWh...
At $54,999 and eligible for $7500 credit would force me to buy one, I think.

Cyber hammer now a reward option for referral credits. 35,000 credits.
 
I suddenly found my FSD, expires tomorrow, got updated to V12.3. Had a chance to do one 40 min trip, and two 15 min trips. Only 1 intervention, happened on I-280 to 880 highway ramp, at the meter. It didn't recognize the green light and held still for two green lights, and I had to step on the pedal to make it go. The other miss was when I exiting a plaza, it made a right turn but the right two tires were going through the curb. Maybe I started the FSD too late and it didn't see the exit clearly. Otherwise no big problems. Kind of slow and hesitant on situations which it should have accelerated though.

One thing that is not related to performance, but makes the experience way way way better is that, it didn't show the "apply slight turning force on the wheel" message even one time, which at V11 it happened every 2 min - 5 min. Looks like it knows the driver is still paying attention through other means.

How does this affect the TSLA SP? Probably not soon, but it is a yeast, and one day it will pop out and everyone will know that Tesla is the only capable company to provide FSD. At that time, SP might go up by 100%, and then people will find that it doesn't contribute to revenue immediately and sell off again. But ultimately it will become a money printer.

Side topic: We all know that FSD is a real meaningful AI application, but how do you feel about ChatGPT up to this point? To me it feels just like a helper tool for entertainnment and art creation industry, but not really meaningful otherwise. Teach me more on why every company is jumping into that.

Why do I say that? I used ChatGPT 3.5 to help me learn Japanese language, but when I go into detail, I found it is often just bluffing. When questioned, it immediately apologized and altered its answer, even after checking from other sources we found it was right. Apparently, it doesn't know what it is talking about. This can only be used in the entertainment content industry where mistakes can be totally forgiven or ignored, or even not being noticed.
 
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I suddenly found my FSD, expires tomorrow, got updated to V12.3. Had a chance to do one 40 min trip, and two 15 min trips. Only 1 intervention, happened on I-280 to 880 highway ramp, at the meter. It didn't recognize the green light and held still for two green lights, and I had to step on the pedal to make it go. The other miss was when I exiting a plaza, it made a right turn but the right two tires were going through the curb. Maybe I started the FSD too late and it didn't see the exit clearly. Otherwise no big problems. Kind of slow and hesitant on situations which it should have accelerated though.

One thing that is not related to performance, but makes the experience way way way better is that, it didn't show the "apply slight turning force on the wheel" message even one time, which at V11 it happened every 2 min - 5 min. Looks like it knows the driver is still paying attention through other means.

How does this affect the TSLA SP? Probably not soon, but it is a yeast, and one day it will pop out and everyone will know that Tesla is the only capable company to provide FSD. At that time, SP might go up by 100%, and then people will find that it doesn't contribute to revenue immediately and sell off again. But ultimately it will become a money printer.

Side topic: We all know that FSD is a real meaningful AI application, but how do you feel about ChatGPT up to this point? To me it feels just like a helper tool for entertainnment and art creation industry, but not really meaningful otherwise. Teach me more on why every company is jumping into that.
Altman says GPT-4 is basically trash compared to GPT-5 about to be released.
 
The increased energy per cell is due to increased volume of the cylinder.
As of Q2, the Cybercell 4680s are on par with 2170 on a same-chemistry basis.


That said, 4680s would make an 3Lud eligible for Clean Vehicle Credit if they keep the MSRP below $55k, plus cut costs $45/kWh...



Would cause a major pricing problem with the rest of the 3 lineup though-- given it'd make the highest-end model $47,499 at point of sale-- and the regular LR AWD is $47,740. (and the RWD is $38,990). How do you price the two lower-trim cars in a way that makes any sense at that point without significant cuts to both?

Historically the gap from SR-RWD to LR AWD has never been less than 6k (usually more) and the gap from LR AWD to performance never less than 5k (usually more).

With a performance model at $47,999 with the credit the LR AWD would need to come down at least $5000- which would force the RWD down at least 2.2k.

Seems like it'd make more sense overall from a margin perspective to price the performance model above 55k to avoid the issue entirely (and not have to worry about using US made 2170s or 4680s that could instead go into higher prices Ys or Cybertrucks or Semis)
 
Zangler is out with a very informative video on the Semi.

His main point is that unlike the other cars the Semi is dependent on external suppliers. And they are not much interested in small numbers like the Semi has needed until now. So Tesla got to ramp it up to get decent supplies.

Another point is that the Semi only need a short assembly line with about 5 stations. And he belive the current prototype building have room for 4-5 lines. Where Tesla can start a modest production while waiting for the main new building to get operational.

Apart from that - many pretty pics from inside the Semi factory - well worth a look:


There is no semi production line. The semi is manually assembled. There is nothing in any of those pictures you wouldn’t see in the workshop of a large truck fleet. It makes no sense for Tesla to replicate that especially since a high volume production line is slightly less than a year away.
 
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Don't exaggerate. Nobody is saying a "service center down the block" and yes I realize your just trying to make a point. Within 2 hours isn't unreasonable.
Great to see that Tesla is opening two new Canadian service centers. (Ontario and BC) I'm sure Tesla will see a lot more buyers near both. All a lot of people are saying is for Tesla to move a little faster building more that's all.
Good to know within two hours is the acceptable distance.

Who are the ‘a lot’ of people? How many is ‘a lot’? And where can I find the research that these ‘a lot’ of people were involved in, questioned, and answered within 2 hrs is acceptable?
 
Would cause a major pricing problem with the rest of the 3 lineup though-- given it'd make the highest-end model $47,499 at point of sale-- and the regular LR AWD is $47,740. (and the RWD is $38,990). How do you price the two lower-trim cars in a way that makes any sense at that point without significant cuts to both?

Historically the gap from SR-RWD to LR AWD has never been less than 6k (usually more) and the gap from LR AWD to performance never less than 5k (usually more).

With a performance model at $47,999 with the credit the LR AWD would need to come down at least $5000- which would force the RWD down at least 2.2k.

Seems like it'd make more sense overall from a margin perspective to price the performance model above 55k to avoid the issue entirely (and not have to worry about using US made 2170s or 4680s that could instead go into higher prices Ys or Cybertrucks or Semis)
Would selling the highest priced version of the 3 to a lot of people really be a problem though?
It's $47.5k to the public, but $58,600 to Tesla (with an 80kWh pack).
Delivery timing will regulate demand, and they can export Fremont production.
 
oh please please please don't put 4680s in the Model 3Ludicrous. Please no.
My bet is that the M3L will come from Shangai with the newer CATL LFMP chemistry. Lower cell energy density than LG NMCA, but the pack density makes up for it. Since the allowed discharge rate is higher than the LFP chemistry found in the 'older' SR packs (4C sustained longer vs 2C/3C) , the power is there for the new redesigned high speed motors. It will be an ideal mix between power and cost.
 
I think the main concern some might currently have with the 4680 packs, is the lackluster charging curve. That will invariably improve over time.
Keep in mind it already improved, which means likely it will improve more

On the first deliveries, Cybertruck maintained 250 kW up to 25%, a few updates latter and now it’s up to 29%

Baby steps I guess, they need it to keep up to 70% to hit the quotes charge times
 
Had another chance to test FSD version 12.3 at night.
It is good still, but this time it does show “apply slight turning force on the wheel” very often , like, every 1-2 minutes, and becomes very annoying.
I don’t know what I did in this afternoon that it didn’t show that message at all.
The major difference was the day time and night time.
 
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Had another chance to test FSD version 12.3 at night.
It is good still, but this time it does show “apply slight turning force on the wheel” very often , like, every 1-2 minutes, and becomes very annoying.
I don’t know what I did in this afternoon that it didn’t show that message at all.
The major difference was the day time and night time.
Maybe the car cabin is too dark, so it can't see your eyes properly and check your attention that way.
 
Had another chance to test FSD version 12.3 at night.
It is good still, but this time it does show “apply slight turning force on the wheel” very often , like, every 1-2 minutes, and becomes very annoying.
I don’t know what I did in this afternoon that it didn’t show that message at all.
The major difference was the day time and night time.
Interesting: the may want people not to abuse FSD at night and stay awake.
They are playing it safe, I like it.
 
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Damn it this looks real
We are doomed. $167 premarket now.
See you at $160 today. I trimmed 20% positions at $171

According to sources, Tesla cut electric vehicle production at its Chinese factory amid weak NEV sales growth and fierce market competition. Earlier this month, Tesla instructed employees at the Shanghai plant to reduce Model Y and Model 3 production and work 5 days a week instead of the usual 6 and a half days. As to when normal production will resume, employees have yet to receive clear updates. Tesla is facing increasing competition in China, and the automaker's shipments declined year over year in the first two months of 2024. Meanwhile, demand for electric vehicles is slowing in other major regions such as the US and Europe. Some production lines at Tesla's Shanghai plant (including the battery workshop) will face a longer shutdown, according to a source. Tesla has told employees and some suppliers to prepare to extend production limits until April.