Wake me up when the FSD community tracker is one intervention every 10,000 miles instead of every 50
Tesla has to be profitable including all insurance claims from this even if no one magically ever dies. You have 0 clue how far off we are.
Hokay.
First off, I'm going to claim I've got chops. Background in RADAR, integrated circuits, system software, firmware, circuit board design, diagnostic code, lots of different assembly languages, and have part of groups, sometimes the leaders of said groups, involved in bringing big, hairy piles of hardware and software to fruition and proft-making status. Not to mention solid work on DSPs and control theory. Over the last bunch of years have specialized in troubleshooting down to the naked transistors or whatever bent and broken pieces of gear returned from the field. And fixing, or attempting to fix, the problems that made said gear bent and broken so It Wouldn't Happen Again.
I'm your basic DC-to-daylight guy when it comes to electronics (and, no, I'm not kidding about that), as well as strange software corners that most people do not venture into.
Which means.. When something is malfunctioning, I usually have, or get, a half-assed idea as to what's bedeviling whatever piece of hardware comes my way. And that, very definitely, has included FSD.
What I'm a-telling you: There's been a step change in FSD with the 12.x series. I've seen the car halt to allow other traffic to come through; I've seen it, when other traffic has halted for
it, for
it to go through, and it's been doing this like a human. That's not something seen, AT ALL, in the previous versions of FSD.
Are there bugs? Yup. In my life, there's
always been bugs. Such is life. But the bugs are much, much smaller now.
Further, in the progression from 12.1 through 12.3.3, the improvements have been, compared to what's come before, astounding.
Will the improvements continue on this trend? Durned if I know: I'm not writing the code. People like to complain about Elon and "2 weeks": But, in large part, He Gets There.
There's one snake in the undergrass: To my mind, Elon exhibits the characteristics of a semi-drugged, no brakes individual. On the days when he talks financials and engineering, he's very, very good. When he's doing People Stuff.. not only is it bad, but it's getting worse over time. So.. the question is whether's Elons slowly progressing meltdown will affect his ability to make decent engineering judgements before FSD gets released. If he and the Tesla engineering team (and you got to bet with this 8/8/2024 date the engineering team
had to be involved) make that date, then the stock price is going to the moon.
And, one final thing: Wall Street lives and dies by the
future, absolutely not only in the present. There's Reasons why there's that phrase, "Past performance is no guarantee of future results." That works both ways, though: Most people take it as a warning that good performance in the past isn't going to happen in the future. Well, I'm here to mention that a poor FSD in the past is no guarantee
against good FSD in the future. Somebody has to succeed for the first time at anything, don't-cha-know.