Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Xepa777]

So many different environments around the US and the rest of the world.

As you noted, I can see robotaxis being a success and working very well for places like urban centers. I can easily imagine robotaxis taking over for the work of taxis/ubers/lyfts, so they make sense in areas where those services already have a MAJOR presence and profitability.

Also, it feels like you have to either limit users or have a massive number of cars in that city when the service first turns on. If a customer turns on the app, and no robotaxis are available, they'll just shift to another app. So, it feels like if/when Tesla starts producing robotaxis, they might have to ship them in big numbers to one city to get started there. Then another wave to another city later.

In very walkable cities, or areas with great mass transit systems, robotaxis would be less busy and less useful and less profitable.

In many typical suburbs, the entire layout of homes/work-places/shopping places/schools/etc. really makes life VERY inconvenient if you don't own and use your own car. Without a major change in society, a taxi network (robo- or otherwise) will only work for a small percentage of trips in these areas. All the moving-about of people is so concentrated into the morning and evening commutes that a robotaxi couldn't really serve two different people's commutes. And, the taxi wouldn't have much to do in the mid-day or night-time hours as most people are either at-work or sleeping. I also don't imagine many of these folks are going to want to rely on a taxi service of any sort to get their kids to/from activities, or to haul a week's worth of groceries either. A personally-owned robot chauffer makes good sense...but I just don't see economic viability in a full robotaxi (or any other kind of taxi) service in places like this.

And, in more rural areas where everything is more spread out and remote, I don't see robotaxis having much use at all.

So, overall, it feels like the focus on robotaxis that can be massively profitable as a service will limit the market to certain big city areas. Cars sold as personally-owned vehicles will still be effectively required in the suburbs and rural areas, whether or not they can drive themselves. Even though, over its life, a robotaxi in an optimal area might be more profitable, I certainly hope that Tesla doesn't leave out huge swaths of the population for whom a taxi service just doesn't make sense. I want them to push for massive scale as proposed in Master Plan Part 3!

I want to seee cities compete for robotaxi deployment like with gigafactory. Since it won’t be a huge job creator I doubt it but a shareholder can dream

 

[30seconds]

Think his hand was forced today.

The hand was in play when (if) he made an announcement to a large group of employees. After that, it was just a matter of time.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Technically this will be robotaxi unveil #6, after the S unveil and then the X unveil and then the 3 unveil and then the Y unveil and then the CT unveil

right

Semi - "convoy technology is something we can do *now*"

Lol

 

[wipster]

And as a PS, I can even see a fully working FSD with two price points: (1) one price for those who would like it on their personal car. Think anyone but how about the elderly or a single parent who needs the car to just run kids around after school.

And (2) a second price, like $200,000, for someone who wants to use FSD in a Tesla as a robo-taxi. With the software, Tesla would know the difference between the two users.

Its got to be cheaper to sell FSD than to build millions of cars to run it. Maybe I have the math wrong somewhere.

Changing the topic slightly, I think Tesla should deploy FSD to the person buying it, not the car. In other words, if I own FSD, I should be able to use it in any Tesla I choose to drive, whether it be my X, or my son's 3, or a rental car. If I sign in or the car otherwise identifies the driver as an owner of FSD, I should be able to use it. It could be licensed individually or to a family or discount for a group, the FSD remains with the person not the car. Kinda like streaming services on smart TV's, but better. I mean the SW is installed on most Teslas and with the systems they currently use to identify the driver it would not be hard for them to do. Would work for monthly rentals as well. I think it would be a huge selling point personally.

 

[Linkmeup]

FWIW, Uber is global, and semi-automatically shifts user data to local for frequent travelers. I use US, Brazil, UK, France and Greece with some frequency. Each of those locations have predominant use by business people and residents. Avoind drunk driving types may be relevant but I would not know.

We’re robotaxi to be able to handle the multi-city multi-country crowds they could have premium pricing and frequent use just as Uber does. Zero doubt that large cities will provide most volume and almost all the profits.

Robotaxi could create new markets.

If Uber counts it reportedly is far more concentrated in large cities than you suggest.
More like 90% very large cities (I.e. >2 million in urban cores and airports/hotels/hospitals etc.)

I mean, airlines could get into the robotaxi market just like how they buy planes from Boeing.

 

[geometro]

Yes and it's interesting, but it's the software that matters. If they have the software, they could use modified Y's as RT's and do fine. Without the software, the RT prototype is just a future museum piece. The RT prototype is just the magician's attractive assistant, it seems to me. But if the magic is real, it doesn't matter.

I’m not so sure… for RT, don’t they need to consider additional features such as auto-closing doors? (ie, passenger gets out and doesn’t close the door… MX could handle this but not MY).

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I’m not so sure… for RT, don’t they need to consider additional features such as auto-closing doors? (ie, passenger gets out and doesn’t close the door… MX could handle this but not MY).

Or all the doors are not closed all the way, the RT won't start the ride.

 

[EQC_]

I’m not so sure… for RT, don’t they need to consider additional features such as auto-closing doors? (ie, passenger gets out and doesn’t close the door… MX could handle this but not MY).

Try opening all 4 doors on your Model Y, and then hop in the driver's seat, put it in drive, and floor the accelerator pedal .

For the robotaxi -- make the doors durable enough, and program the car to only unlock passenger-side doors when dropping off a passenger at the curb. Passengers get out the passenger side. If they leave the door open, the car can pull forward and steer carefully to whack the doors into the nearest telephone pole or another parked car to get them closed.

It's been a long day/week. Sarcasm and joking to be sure.

 

[Drumheller]

If a rider complains about the fee of the ride while in a robotaxi, I hope the vehicle plays an audio clip of complaining about having five kids to feed.

 

[Stretch2727]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776381278071267807

 

[Krugerrand]

AH trading should not be allowed IMO. Many people are unable to take part in it.

Well, I won’t argue that. All shareholders should also be in those extra meetings that only the special people get like what happened about a month ago. And all people buying shares of any company should have access to ALL information that market makers , hedge funds etc… have. And a whole bunch of other related stuff we don’t have access to, yet a whole slew of people think they can beat the system and no manipulation happens.

And employees of a company should respect their NDAs and not screw with the company, that keeps them in food and a roof over their heads, nor their fellow workers.

And media should actually have to tell the truth from headline to the last period in an article, be entirely neutral, not write to lead the reader to a desired conclusion or be severely punished.

And a shareholder vote of 80% shouldn’t be able to be overturned by a 9 share holder and a judge more interested in being a fiction author.

*space provided for all the other stuffs*

Otherwise, everything is on the up and up and the playing field is level.

 

[MC3OZ]

Robotaxi and 25k car will use the same software stack for FSD. Rototaxi is more about making the car comfortable as a passenger, making it easy to clean, making it very durable etc. Basically a car optimized for being in use a lot by passengers and not a fun driver. It might include things such as a automatic sliding doors to make entry/exit easier and camera monitoring for improper use etc which require slightly different software, but nothing major for the control of driving.

25k car will sell in high volume at a cheap price. Robotaxi can cost a bit more, but make up for it because it will be used a lot.

Yes. that is how I see things...

A Robotaxi might have a single crystal high nickel battery pack because that provides a great combination of long range, high cycle-life and adaptability to V2G.

A 25K car might have an LFP or eventually Sodium based battery pack.

A Robotaxi might have inductive charging and the 25K might not.

A Robotaxi will not have a glovebox, door pockets or centre console. A Robotaxi will have inductive phone charging but will warn the customer to take their phone. As far as possible the chances of accidentally leaving something in the Robotaxi need to be minimised and the internal camera might be used to help.

Automatically opening doors and trunk are a good fit with the Robotaxi... The 25K car might have the same doors / trunk but the software opening of them might be different.

I am unsure whether or not the basic shape and size of the car will vary substantially...

The unboxed method allows similar/identical boxes to be incorporated in slightly different body shapes, But there is no need to duplicate stamping/casting moulds etc, unless there are very good reasons...

Seats and the interior trim can be different, the layout of seats might be different, the roof might be different.

The Robotaxi reveal on 8/8 is to fly the 25K car under the radar for as long as possible due to the risk of Osborning.

Sooner or later some covered vehicles are going to be captured by drones/cameras, it is good to steer that speculation in the direction of the Robotaxi.
If the reveal is 8/8 we might see some covered/camouflaged vehicles 1-2 months before that.. or maybe they will keep them hidden inside the factory.. But before volume production they will need to be driven on public roads..

it is also fairly likely that initial production at Austin will start with Robotaxis, Austin might not even build 25K cars.

That doesn't mean Mexico, Berlin, Shanghai or other factory locations will not build the 25K car. They are also almost certain to build Robotaxis.

I doubt that Elon's plan is to build a high number of Robotaxis and sit them around in parking lots.

 

[Krugerrand]

The hand was in play when (if) he made an announcement to a large group of employees. After that, it was just a matter of time.

Large group of employees hasn’t been confirmed as a fact. So, I’d wait on that a bit.

Additionally, what happened to personal integrity? Even if a large group of people were told, they ALL should have kept their mouths shut.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

IMO, TSLA might be in a world of hurt for a while.

Earnings estimates are coming in around $0.4 - $0.5 of EPS. Annualized that's around $2. At current share price, that's a running PE ratio of 85 .

TTM non-GAAP PE ratio would be around 70. These are high figures, usually kept for companies with very high earnings growth. Much higher than other tech stocks like NVDA.

That could be fine, if the market is valuing a high certainty of future earnings growth and discounting backwards.

High certainty, as say, a next-gen consumer vehicle.

NOT a robotaxi vehicle.

As much as bulls in here don't want to acknowledge, but the road to L5 autonomy is filled with uncertainty. Yes, one day they will get there, but in which year that happens is highly uncertain. No one can know when they will 100x their reliability. Yes that's right, the software will have to reduce interventions by 100x of the current level to even get close.

Now you may be a long term holder and not be concerned exactly when that happens, and that's fine. But Wall Street institutional investors are absolutely not basing their valuation models heavily on autonomy. They were hoping for automotive growth via a lower priced consumer product.

Now that you've taken that away, many won't invest at the current share price. It's simply too high without autonomy priced in some.

With such poor earnings growth, I expect the stock to take a dip after the latest earnings. Then there will be a run up into the 8/8 event on hype along with the fact FSD disengagements may continue to show a massive drop.

But then if earnings stay poor, there will be another selloff when folks realize the rate of improvement in the has slown down (which it will at some point).


Yes some of this is conjecture. But make so mistake - Musk is pivoting the company to be mostly dependent on autonomy success, and that will make the share price more volatile for years.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Large group of employees hasn’t been confirmed as a fact. So, I’d wait on that a bit.

Additionally, what happened to personal integrity? Even if a large group of people were told, they ALL should have kept their mouths shut.

Unless some of em are no longer with Tesla and want their 5 seconds of fame.

 

[MC3OZ]

Changing the topic slightly, I think Tesla should deploy FSD to the person buying it, not the car. In other words, if I own FSD, I should be able to use it in any Tesla I choose to drive, whether it be my X, or my son's 3, or a rental car. If I sign in or the car otherwise identifies the driver as an owner of FSD, I should be able to use it. It could be licensed individually or to a family or discount for a group, the FSD remains with the person not the car. Kinda like streaming services on smart TV's, but better. I mean the SW is installed on most Teslas and with the systems they currently use to identify the driver it would not be hard for them to do. Would work for monthly rentals as well. I think it would be a huge selling point personally.

A consideration is deployment of FSD in non-Tesla vehicles, and the need to appear to treat all brands the same.

They don't necessarily want people who own FSD in a Tesla, transferring that licence to a new Ford.

While no other manufacturer is shipping cars that support FSD, transferring FSD to a new Tesla can be supported.

Once other car makers support FSD, it is fairly likely that all new purchases can only lease FSD monthly.

The can be the final demand lever for outright purchase of FSD, a definite cut-off date, after which leasing is the only option.

 

[FreqFlyer]

new factories in Mexico, and India, expansion at Shanghai, Austin, and Berlin is not for robo taxis. A $25K EV will fill production at those factories.

 

[c041v]

I don't believe the after hour SP pop can last long, and want to sell my shares. But, my current positions has very low cost and thus if I sell I will need to pay a lot of tax, which I already surpassed many brackets in Q1 2024.
I want to do "Short Sell" in after hours, but my broker Fidelity doesn't allow me.
What else can I do??

Wait until the SP returns to your cost basis and you won't owe any tax when you sell.

 

[MD70]

I really hope this does not happen:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776359981400383675

 

[Tronguy]

Wake me up when the FSD community tracker is one intervention every 10,000 miles instead of every 50 Tesla has to be profitable including all insurance claims from this even if no one magically ever dies. You have 0 clue how far off we are.

Hokay.

First off, I'm going to claim I've got chops. Background in RADAR, integrated circuits, system software, firmware, circuit board design, diagnostic code, lots of different assembly languages, and have part of groups, sometimes the leaders of said groups, involved in bringing big, hairy piles of hardware and software to fruition and proft-making status. Not to mention solid work on DSPs and control theory. Over the last bunch of years have specialized in troubleshooting down to the naked transistors or whatever bent and broken pieces of gear returned from the field. And fixing, or attempting to fix, the problems that made said gear bent and broken so It Wouldn't Happen Again.

I'm your basic DC-to-daylight guy when it comes to electronics (and, no, I'm not kidding about that), as well as strange software corners that most people do not venture into.

Which means.. When something is malfunctioning, I usually have, or get, a half-assed idea as to what's bedeviling whatever piece of hardware comes my way. And that, very definitely, has included FSD.

What I'm a-telling you: There's been a step change in FSD with the 12.x series. I've seen the car halt to allow other traffic to come through; I've seen it, when other traffic has halted for it, for it to go through, and it's been doing this like a human. That's not something seen, AT ALL, in the previous versions of FSD.

Are there bugs? Yup. In my life, there's always been bugs. Such is life. But the bugs are much, much smaller now.

Further, in the progression from 12.1 through 12.3.3, the improvements have been, compared to what's come before, astounding.

Will the improvements continue on this trend? Durned if I know: I'm not writing the code. People like to complain about Elon and "2 weeks": But, in large part, He Gets There.

There's one snake in the undergrass: To my mind, Elon exhibits the characteristics of a semi-drugged, no brakes individual. On the days when he talks financials and engineering, he's very, very good. When he's doing People Stuff.. not only is it bad, but it's getting worse over time. So.. the question is whether's Elons slowly progressing meltdown will affect his ability to make decent engineering judgements before FSD gets released. If he and the Tesla engineering team (and you got to bet with this 8/8/2024 date the engineering team had to be involved) make that date, then the stock price is going to the moon.

And, one final thing: Wall Street lives and dies by the future, absolutely not only in the present. There's Reasons why there's that phrase, "Past performance is no guarantee of future results." That works both ways, though: Most people take it as a warning that good performance in the past isn't going to happen in the future. Well, I'm here to mention that a poor FSD in the past is no guarantee against good FSD in the future. Somebody has to succeed for the first time at anything, don't-cha-know.