Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

It is perhaps cruel of me to say...but I believe it's a cruel reality: MANY people, across many income levels (a) have no true idea where their money goes, and (b) are stuck living paycheck-to-pacheck, in part, because they spend what's in their pocket on non-necessities without thinking it matters, and then struggle with the bills at the end of the month that should be easily predictable. Paycheck-to-paycheck, for many, is also due to a signing up for enough monthly payments (mortgage, car, subscriptoins, etc.) to consume every month's income without adequately valueing a need for savings, etc.

I have no idea about the validity of the data, but at least one google-able study suggests that in the US "63% of employees can't cover an unexpected $500 expense." Nearly 2/3's of people just not having an extra $500 for an emergency is mentally shocking. At such a high percentage, we know this isn't just people with poverty or lower-middle-class incomes. There are people with pretty sizeable incomes in this category too.

With that in mind:
There are a lot of people who hear EV and just think "my electic bill will go up and it's already too high!". I believe that many people top up their gas tank with the cash in their pocket, and for them throwing a couple twenties over the counter every few days doesn't seem like it really adds up to much. There are also people who pay on credit card, so the many gas transactions are just part of the credit card bill at the end of the month. Either way, gasoline is a bunch of small/separate transactions so people don't see what it adds up to...and they can't really imagine that those "mandatory" expenses will go away and be replaced by a smaller addition to their electric bill.

For many people, there is also the problem that they seem to be itching to spend what's in their pocket without thinking. Stop at the ATM when their pocket is empty, spend the cash until its gone, then hit the ATM again. For people who are used to carrying around cash to pay for topping up their gas tank, they probably pay cash for many "impulse" type purchases as well. If the cash purchases of gas go away, for many people, that money will still get spent on something else. At the end of the month, the "gas money" will still have been spent, AND their electric bill will be higher than before. Until they can resolve that pattern, such people could end up feeling even more pinched at the end of the month if they own an EV.

I don't know about you but when $TSLA goes up, i go out and buy more things...j/k. The problem is the majority of people, esp in this generation, want to live for the now and the gram. It does not matter if he/she is $1M in debt, as long as he/she looks the part, that is all that matters. Here is some food for thought: What do you see when you walk onto a college campus? Tons of tents offering you free gifts to sign up for a credit card? Why you ask? You are fresh out of high school and you are given a CC with a limit of $3-$5k most likely.
What do you know about managing debt? Absolutely nothing! By the time you graduate, you are so far behind the 8 ball, you cannot spare any $ to invest and it will probably take you a good 5-10 years to pay off this debt, not including any student loans if you have any.
What does this all mean? It means that you will probably be working till 65+ because you will be so far behind in investing because of the debt you incurred in college. This keeps you in the work force for almost the majority of your life and keeps businesses happy with workers.
This is another reason why financial literacy is not taught in High School, they wanna keep you in the rat race for as long as they can and you won't figure it out until you are older!!

Rant over..back to $TSLA

 

[NicoV]

“Lowest cost per kilometer in the electric SUV market (14.9 kWh/100 km)”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778353650668105923

With only 2 passenger spots, how much will this be for the Robotaxi? It may become the most economic transport device wrt to energy per passengerkilometer.

 

[AnbaricBike]

It is perhaps cruel of me to say...but I believe it's a cruel reality: MANY people, across many income levels (a) have no true idea where their money goes, and (b) are stuck living paycheck-to-pacheck, in part, because they spend what's in their pocket on non-necessities without thinking it matters, and then struggle with the bills at the end of the month that should be easily predictable. Paycheck-to-paycheck, for many, is also due to a signing up for enough monthly payments (mortgage, car, subscriptoins, etc.) to consume every month's income without adequately valueing a need for savings, etc.

I have no idea about the validity of the data, but at least one google-able study suggests that in the US "63% of employees can't cover an unexpected $500 expense." Nearly 2/3's of people just not having an extra $500 for an emergency is mentally shocking. At such a high percentage, we know this isn't just people with poverty or lower-middle-class incomes. There are people with pretty sizeable incomes in this category too.

With that in mind:
There are a lot of people who hear EV and just think "my electic bill will go up and it's already too high!". I believe that many people top up their gas tank with the cash in their pocket, and for them throwing a couple twenties over the counter every few days doesn't seem like it really adds up to much. There are also people who pay on credit card, so the many gas transactions are just part of the credit card bill at the end of the month. Either way, gasoline is a bunch of small/separate transactions so people don't see what it adds up to...and they can't really imagine that those "mandatory" expenses will go away and be replaced by a smaller addition to their electric bill.

For many people, there is also the problem that they seem to be itching to spend what's in their pocket without thinking. Stop at the ATM when their pocket is empty, spend the cash until its gone, then hit the ATM again. For people who are used to carrying around cash to pay for topping up their gas tank, they probably pay cash for many "impulse" type purchases as well. If the cash purchases of gas go away, for many people, that money will still get spent on something else. At the end of the month, the "gas money" will still have been spent, AND their electric bill will be higher than before. Until they can resolve that pattern, such people could end up feeling even more pinched at the end of the month if they own an EV.

I dunno. I tried my best to justify, economically, the cost of buying a Tesla and it just doesn't pencil out compared with keeping my old golf.

Robby car cost calc.xlsx

Sheet1 Model,Mystery horse,Golf TDI,T&C,VW Atlas,VW Tiguan,<a href="https://www.pakkauto.com/Inventory/Details/0c96fa74-8f6e-46a8-bc70-64252dc357e6">Model X</a>,<a href="https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/l-Used-Tesla-Model-Y-Centreville-d3044_L36524#listing=381476279/NONE/DEFAULT">Model Y LR</a>,Mod...

docs.google.com

 

[EQC_]

I dunno. I tried my best to justify, economically, the cost of buying a Tesla and it just doesn't pencil out compared with keeping my old golf.

Robby car cost calc.xlsx

Sheet1 Model,Mystery horse,Golf TDI,T&C,VW Atlas,VW Tiguan,<a href="https://www.pakkauto.com/Inventory/Details/0c96fa74-8f6e-46a8-bc70-64252dc357e6">Model X</a>,<a href="https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/l-Used-Tesla-Model-Y-Centreville-d3044_L36524#listing=381476279/NONE/DEFAULT">Model Y LR</a>,Mod...

docs.google.com

100% agree. I didn't even look at your spreadsheet...but you did math. The fact that you are willing to do some math indicates that you are willing to understand where your money goes.

As a result, I also assume you have over $500 available for an emergency.

If you are in the US, those traits (willing to do math, doing true financial calculations when considering a purchase, and having some financial cushion) puts you in a minority.

I am not here to argue that buying a new Tesla will somehow save you money over a car you already own....for many many cases, sticking with the car you own is better than buying new.

On the other hand, there are plenty of people making payments on a 2-year-old BMW who will probably trade that in for a new BMW in a couple years and start making even higher payments. At the end of the month, they see their expensive electric bill and can't understand that a new Tesla would actually save them money. They wouldn't consider a used Tesla, and DEFINITELY wouldn't consider driving a used economy car....and they don't understand why they struggle through every month financially. This type of person exists and is much more common than we probably think... THEY would save by going to a new Tesla instead of a new BMW. Of course, somebody willing to do the math knows they'd save even more going for a nice reliable used car....and probably even better if they got a cheap 8-year-old Nissan LEAF or something....but that might be a step too far .

 

[AnbaricBike]

Well I also have an 11 year old leaf

 

[M|S|M MYP]

100% agree. I didn't even look at your spreadsheet...but you did math. The fact that you are willing to do some math indicates that you are willing to understand where your money goes.

As a result, I also assume you have over $500 available for an emergency.

If you are in the US, those traits (willing to do math, doing true financial calculations when considering a purchase, and having some financial cushion) puts you in a minority.

I am not here to argue that buying a new Tesla will somehow save you money over a car you already own....for many many cases, sticking with the car you own is better than buying new.

On the other hand, there are plenty of people making payments on a 2-year-old BMW who will probably trade that in for a new BMW in a couple years and start making even higher payments. At the end of the month, they see their expensive electric bill and can't understand that a new Tesla would actually save them money. They wouldn't consider a used Tesla, and DEFINITELY wouldn't consider driving a used economy car....and they don't understand why they struggle through every month financially. This type of person exists and is much more common than we probably think... THEY would save by going to a new Tesla instead of a new BMW. Of course, somebody willing to do the math knows they'd save even more going for a nice reliable used car....and probably even better if they got a cheap 8-year-old Nissan LEAF or something....but that might be a step too far .

Prob Elon's fault

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

If someone wants to demonstrate how right they have been, they are in the best position to show us. Rather than make a claim and expect those who read it to either accept their claim at face value or take time to dig through the prior posts in order to verify it.

This particular poster has a habit of making broad generalizations to support their perspective. Then, presenting it as if it were a highly detailed analysis when their opinion might have been based upon some unverified presumptions.

Granted, some of their information has gone into greater detail, and this is appreciated. I'd prefer that more of their posts avoided presumption and included background to support their statements.

Falling back on how "I've always been right, so I know I'm right now" reminds me of people who prefer to avoid error-checking themselves, or, considering any other possibilities. Instead relying on "I've been doing things this way for (some period of time)" and won't consider new angles or information.

If someone is going to make a claim that their forecast history supports their analysis, then go ahead and show that this is actually something they have tracked, rather than expect us to take their word for it. What if their assessment of their track record is not supported once they go through it?

Looking to qualify such statements rather than take them at face value seems quite the opposite of an echo chamber.

Edit: The point of the original invitation to provide the list of accomplishments was merely calling what might be a bluff.
If one makes a claim, they should be prepared to show their hand when called.
This is an encouragement to "be less wrong," as Elon says.

So the original poster claimed S3XY will be autonomous robotaxis by 8/8/2024 with no data or anything, and not a peep from you.

But me being more conservative --> "I'd prefer that more of their posts avoided presumption and included background to support their statements."

lol

Face it: I'm not speculating anymore than anyone else on here, you just don't like what I have to say so you treat it differently (mostly with low-level ad hominem comments).

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

1000 miles per disengagement will be great. That would be like once a month for most people. The current rate is something like 1 in 20 miles in the city. It’s not going to improve 50x in 4 months, though.

Critical disengagement. That rate is somewhere between 200-400 miles right now, up from 100 miles last year.

I expect the rate of improvement to increase from V11 before because of end to end and increased compute allowing bigger gains as the "easier" stuff gets picked off. 3x in 4 months is a guess, I don't see any evidence from other models of multiple orders of magnitude improvements in a short period of time. Then there are other limiting factors that begin to get involved and rate of progress may taper a bit as with most trained models.

 

[Krugerrand]

Reverse stock split in discussion for Nikola.

 

[EVMeister]

Might not be news to anyone here, but this video is a testament to just how long Teslas and their batteries can last. Very heavily used Model S, charged several times per day on Superchargers (to 100%) and it has travelled hundreds of thousands of KM.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

More free advertising for Tesla

Ford targets Tesla owners with $1,500 EV 'conquest' rebates

Ford is targeting one automaker in particular when it comes to boosting EV sales: Tesla.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Reverse stock split in discussion for Nikola.

 

[Zero CO2]

More free advertising for Tesla

Ford targets Tesla owners with $1,500 EV 'conquest' rebates

Ford is targeting one automaker in particular when it comes to boosting EV sales: Tesla.

finance.yahoo.com

View attachment 1037783

Ford is an absolute clown show if this is real

 

[Knightshade]

Ford is an absolute clown show if this is real

Honestly unclear why?

Conquest rebates have been a common legacy auto promo for decades....including down to specific models... (for example Chevy once offered a $2,000 bonus on Camaro specifically targeted at Mustang drivers.)

 

[Snerruc]

12.3.4 showed up on my unicorn S last night that has not worked on any version. When a friend of my daughter , who has 12.3.3 and likes it , can come over I’ll have him drive it. I want it to be fair to tesla as at this time I’m like a gun shy bird dog at the sight of a 12 gauge. Fingers crossed.

 

[aubreymcfato]

As I thought, North America did lose a lot of sales in Q1.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778503326138548352

 

[Etna]

Can somebody remind me of Karen Rei and Fact Checking X names?

@enn_nafnlaus
@truth_tesla

 

[DarkandStormy]

As I thought, North America did lose a lot of sales in Q1.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778503326138548352

View attachment 1037787

But what about the POS tax credit catalyst? Paging Gary Black...

 

[Zero CO2]

Honestly unclear why?

Conquest rebates have been a common legacy auto promo for decades....including down to specific models... (for example Chevy once offered a $2,000 bonus on Camaro specifically targeted at Mustang drivers.)

Puzzled Prospective Ford customer ... who also owns a Tesla and does not have to trade it in:

" Wait a minute why are you willing to give me $1500 for owning a Tesla and buying Ford EV which we you have supposedly paused production.... are you going to support EVs going forward? "Sounds risky to me ???
"I better rethink this and take another look at Tesla maybe they have improved their options "
"Oh wait they have anew Model 3 .. and the best selling car Model Y" oh wow Cybertruck is also Tesla

 

[Max Plaid]

Well that was entertaining, but a bit intense